"A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought."
Warren Buffett, businessman and philanthropist
b. 1930
"Opinion polls measure the public's satisfaction with its ignorance."
Anonymous
Is it just me, or does it make sense that a serious presidential candidate should be able to carry the vote in their own state?
A recent poll in Minnesota by St. Cloud University showed Governor Tim Pawlenty coming in 10 points behind President Obama if Pawlenty were to run against Obama in 2012. St. Cloud is located in the center of Minnesota, part of the extremely conservative 6th district which elected notorious Congresswoman Michele Bachmann to office not once but twice.
This was not a new poll result for Pawlenty. Other polls have shown similar numbers. In March of 2009, a Rasmussen poll showed that a whopping 61% of Minnesotans did not think Pawlenty should run for president in 2012. A Rasmussen poll in May 2009 showed 55% didn't think he could win the nomination for 2012.
Governor Pawlenty had been among those under consideration for John McCain's running mate during the 2008 Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, prior to McCain selecting Sarah Palin for the position.
Pawlenty is considered a potential candidate for the GOP 2012 presidential race, and has been touring the country speaking at conservative and Republican events, including turning up to promote the losing Conservative candidate in the New York 23rd Congressional District, instead of supporting the more moderate GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava. Palin was another of the possible 2012 hopefuls to turn up far from home to get noticed and to promote the Conservative Party candidate.
Pawlenty, or "T-Paw" for short as he is referred to in Minnesota, has announced that he will not run for a third term as governor, although he's had decent approval ratings in the polls for his performance as governor. Which makes it perhaps the more confusing to note that this suggests that there are some people who like him well enough as governor, but who dislike the idea of him as a possible President, or at least his running for the nomination for candidate for President.
A poll from the Minneapolis newspaper, The Star Tribune, from September 2009 indicated that 30% of Minnesotans would like Pawlenty to make a bid for the presidential candidacy, with 55% indicating they don't want him to run. A statement by "T-Paw" advisor Alex Conant, quoted in an article by CNN Political Director Paul Steinhauser stated (with typical Republican math) "the fact that half of the voters in a liberal leaning state like Minnesota would consider voting for a conservative like Pawlenty is a real testament to his strong record as governor."
At the time Conant made the comment, the STrib poll indicated one in four Minnesotans said there was a good chance they'd vote for him, but the results did not indicate if a hypothetical opponent was named. Another one in four thought there was at least some chance they might vote for him. However 43% indicated there was no chance they would vote for Pawlenty for president.
In the meantime, Pawlenty's approval ratings for his job as governor continue to decline, as he leaves a difficult political scene in Minnesota where there is a great deal of controversy over the state budget. Pawlenty has been described as perhaps less conservative than some of the more extreme right base of the Republican Party, but is frequently described as conservative ENOUGH.
It is expected he may try to appeal to the more conservative views of the narrow GOP base in part by trying to campaign for votes for conservative candidates in other states. For example, in a recent Iowa presidential poll for the Des Moines Register, Pawlenty was viewed favorably by 17%, unfavorably by 10%, not sure 73%. In comparison, Palin was viewed unfavorably by 55% of those polled. But will campaigning for conservative candidates in other states help T-Paw win at home? His declining numbers in Minnesota are headed the wrong way for a presidential win in his home state.
Governor Pawlenty is too small-potatoes to win the nomination and the presidency. (He's probably too small-potatoes to even simply win the nomination.) He's the less preachy Mike Huckabee; inoffensive personally, provincial, with little gravitas, etc.
ReplyDeleteA part of me thinks he knows this.
Hence, he may be angling for the VP slot through a personal presidential run. (It's basically what Biden did with his presidential run, which was underfunded.) I suppose he could be passable as an inoffensive running mate. Maybe.
I still say that John Thune is someone to watch for either the GOP nomination or as the nominee's running mate, along with the usual suspects.
There will be other newbies, too, of course. There might have to be, because the GOP field is quite weak at present.
Has wrote:"Governor Pawlenty is too small-potatoes to win the nomination and the presidency."
ReplyDeleteObama was a relative unknown at this stage of the run for 2008. Palin was even more of an unknown before she got the nod for VP.
Pawlenty may very well have a chance at the nomination precisely because he doesn't have the baggage of Palin, or the scandals that have attached to some of the other politicians considered for the running. He is doing his utmost to upgrade his recognition.
The one point in examining the polls that struck me the most was the difference between interest in Palin - like a soap opera or maybe the human equivalent of a train wreck - and serious interest in her ever holding office again. Palin doesn't have a solid geographic base of support, and even ideologically, she is not widely embraced even by the narrow GOP base. That leaves a vacuum, one that Pawlenty imho is trying to fill, but for now, trying to fill quietly rather than in negative but big attention ways.
Polls can indicate interest or even approval, but the approval is not necessarily the same thing as a desire to see someone hold office, especially high office.
Pawlenty, and you were kind enough not to rub his nose in it, created our current budget morasse as Majority then Minority Leader in the Minnesota House when in 1999, along with Governor Ventura, he STUPIDLY decided to set state income levels (tax rates not raw dollars) at what was required during high growth/boom economic times.
ReplyDeleteThis was doubly stupid becuase of course total receipts are always higher when more income is being generated, and because need is much lower as well.
Since then he's blusterd about his success as Governor in holding the budget line on rates, while of course seeing real dollars increase each year in total income due to inflation while HE held outlays (spending in programs) to real dollar freezes. This rather craven budget gimick belies his 'no new taxes' pledge as he allowed inflation and budget gimmicks to balance a budget he couldn't otherwise have balanced.
He THEN phumpers about wanting NOW to freeze income to the state in real dollars - rather than percentages - something he didn't try to do in boom times, and didn't do as governor when he needed the income. While 30% of the state may be too fawning to see the parlor tricks, many in the state see him for what he is. A governor who sets income levels at a point that wasn't sustainable, flip flops when he needs the real dollar increases, and then reverses himself again when he's exiting the stage.
Or, they may just see that he's leaving us with a 4 Billion dollar deficit that he had no way to deal with other than finally raiseing taxes, and being a political conniver, knew that doing so would end his national aspirations once and for all.
I don't think Pawlenty has much of a shot on the national stage, he's genial enough, but when hard realities hit home, he had no real answers - he didn't comprimise, and he'll be seen as an inflexible party zealot, which is how he behaved even if it isn't who he is.
Dog Gone,
ReplyDeletePeople saw that President Obama had an instant personal gravitas early in his presidential run, which made up for what you term his "lack of recognition" at this stage prior to the '08 election.
I respectfully disagree with your statement, by the way--Mr. Obama was very much on the national stage after his 2004 Democratic National Convention speech. There was a true general buzz about him from that point forward.
For her part, Governor Palin was a "Hail Mary" pass by the McCain campaign, who would have done better going with John Thune or any number of other folks (male or female) as their candidate's running mate. They were trying to take advantage of the displaced Hillary supporters, of course, but those folks rejected the McCain ticket and voted for President Obama.
Penigma said, "[Governor Pawlenty is] genial enough, but when hard realities hit home, he had no real answers." I agree. His "nice guy" persona might get him somewhere on the national stage, but not to the top of the 2012 GOP ticket, unless they're totally desperate. He'd do best keeping his eye on the VP slot, which might or might not be his ultimate strategy, anyway, whether or not he runs for president. We'll see.
Yes, there is a glaring vacuum in the GOP presidential field. Be that as it may, Governor Pawlenty is small potatoes. I think his party's higher-ups know it. We'll see if GOP voters will discover this in the coming months and years.
At any rate, Mrs. Hasslington and I wish you all a very happy Thanksgiving. And now it's back to bad football....
I think someone like Bobby Jindal would be a good candidate.Since he has been governor Louisiana schools have gone from 46th in the country to 5th (I think they looked at a combination of graduation, ACT, and SAT scores). He increased the quality of state supplied health insurance and he did this while cutting taxes. When someone asked him how he pointed to the anti-corruption laws passed in his first yr in office. He said he figured 20% of the state budget, and possibly more, was being lost to corruption. The day the law went into effect 1200 state employees quit rather than comply with it. His main problem is twofold. One he is Indian. His parents were immigrants, he was born here but a lot of people have had their jobs shipped off to India and that would hurt him. Also right after giving the response to one of Obama's first major speeches his numbers were 17% liked him, 11% disliked him, and 72% had no idea who he was, not good the day after being on national television right after the president.
ReplyDeleteTTuck,
ReplyDeleteJindal figures his education stats to suit his needs - and I don't think using objective measures LA has improved that much.
Also, remember that LA had MANY problems in New Orleans with public schools in poor communities, and because of Katrina, many of those problems simply moved out of state.
Finally, Jindal looked far less than ready for prime-time when he appeared on national TV last year. He may get more polish, and lord knows he's brighter than GW Bush - so if you can put lipstick on that pig (Bugh), then Jindal should have a much easier time, but Jinal won't be running against wooden face Al Gore - Obama's a much tougher target.
Finally, my brother teaches in BAton Rouge, and parents live (part time) in Mandeville, LA outside New Orleans. I've not heard one comment about how Jindal has invested in education far more than Katherine Blanco did.