Gov. Dayton vs. Jeff Johnson: Primary Election Perspective and retro-spective

From my view on Primary Tuesday as an elective judge, the predicted low turnout was more variable.  The up-ballot races were not driving voter participation, but rather from what I saw and what was reported to us by our county auditor about our county wide participation and the larger state-wide participation, high or low turnout was dependant on whether or not there were commissioner races, not the 'big' job races.



This prompted me to take a look at the primary turnouts in the last two election cycles.


From the Sec. State site, comparing the last midterm election year for the Governor's race primary and this year's primary, as a  measure of voter enthusiasm. 

First let's look at 2010, the most recent midterm election year, significant for the Tea Party phenomenon:

Independence party
TOM HORNER AND JAMES A. MULDER            11380  64.24
PHIL RATTE’ AND GAYLE-LYNN: LEMASTER      1215   6.86
RAHN V. WORKCUFF AND MARK F WORKCUFF    815   4.60
JOHN T. ULDRICH AND STEPHEN WILLIAMS      1766   9.97
ROB HAHN AND THOMAS J HARENS                  2538  14.33
GOP
OLE’ SAVIOR AND TODD “ELVIS” ANDERSON      4396     3.37
LESLIE DAVIS AND GREGORY K. SODERBERG     8598     6.59
BOB CARNEY JR AND WILLIAM MCGAUGHEY        9856   7.56
TOM EMMER AND ANNETTE T. MEEKS               107558 82.48
DFL
MARGARET ANDERSON KELLIHER, JOHN GUNYOU  175767   39.75
PETER IDUSOGIE AND LADY JAYNE FONTAINE              3123     0.71
MATT ENTENZA AND ROBYNE ROBINSON                    80509   18.21
MARK DAYTON AND YVONNE PRETTNER SOLON        182738 41.33

Independence party 17714
GOP 130408
DFL 442137
_______
total 590259
and a little ‘extra’ context — total registered MN voters as of poll opening 3111619
and this year:
Independence party
HANNAH NICOLLET AND TIM GIESEKE 5822 100.00
GOP
MARTY SEIFERT AND PAM MYHRA 38798 21.09
KURT ZELLERS AND DEAN SIMPSON 43991 23.92
MERRILL ANDERSON AND MARK ANDERSON 7008 3.81
JEFF JOHNSON AND BILL KUISLE 55813 30.34
SCOTT HONOUR AND KARIN HOUSLEY 38331 20.84
DFL
BILL DAHN AND JAMES VIGLIOTTI 4896 2.56
LESLIE DAVIS AND GREGORY K. SODERBERG 8529 4.46
MARK DAYTON AND TINA SMITH 177737 92.98
Independence party 5822
GOP 183941
DFL 191162
________
total 372396
total registered MN voters as of poll opening: 3111478

That's a decline of 217503 voters participating in the 2014 election, more than the total votes cast by any of the parties for their combined candidates, compared to the 2010 election, and a slight decline in total number of registered voters (141).


It also reflects a difference of an INCREASE of 53533 Republican voters, and a DECREASE of 259144 Democratic voters participating in this primary compared to 2010.

What does this say about the enthusiasm levels between the various parties? It strongly suggests a lack of primary excitement by Democrats and Independents compared to Republicans. But arguably the sharpest contest was the 5 way race for the Republican ticket, compared to the 4-way equivalent in 2010 for the DFL ticket - other than the draw of those more local races, where there were contests.


It would be a serious over-reach of the numbers to suggest this represents any kind of overall turnout for the general election.


It will remain to be seen how the overall voter turnout compares in the general election to the primaries, and who does and does not turn out to vote --- and WHY, not for WHOM. A big question will be can those who split among the top three MN GOP candidates unite behind Jeff Johnson, in contrast to the triple digit unity by MN Dems behind Mark Dayton. Dayton has excellent statewide recognition, with 46278 voters turning out in Hennepin County, while only 12101 voters turned out for Johnson in Hennepin, his home county.


There are a lot of devils hiding in a lot of details, which may or may not be useful predictors of ANYTHING.  What looks unlikely at this point however is another governor's race recount after the November general election.