The real question about ending the Covid-19 Lockdowns.

The issue is really more like can we afford to wait until there is a vaccine or treatment. Especially if the time we need to wait is until the end of 2022.

The optimistic predictions on a vaccine are that it won't be available until 12-18 months. But that's optimistic since there has been research into a coronavirus vaccine since the 2002-04 SARS outbreak. I'm not going to get into issues surrounding developing a vaccine since that is way more than a blog post.

Likewise treatments aren't out there. While Trump can take a hit for his musing: he is expressing the frustrations anyone with any familiarity of this feel now.

Herd immunity is controversial since some people feel it relates to immunisation. The real issue is getting enough people infected with the virus to render it "harmless". That raises the issue that quite a few people who are infected could be asymptomatic (I've heard it could be 50-90%). Toss in that 80% of those we do know have been infected don't require hospitalisation to get better according to the WHO.

The whole reason behind "flattening the curve" is to make sure that the health system isn't overburdened. But that also raises issues.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 43,000 healthcare jobs were lost in March 2020, and the job losses in healthcare have increased as shutdowns persist through the pandemic. The HealthLandscape and American Academy of Family Physicians issued a report estimating by June 2020, 60,000 family medical practices will close or scale back, affecting 800,000 workers. Source

That means the US health care system LOST personnel as the pandemic was gearing up. Add in the hypocrisy of Andrew Cuomo who was wrecking New York's health care system until he decided to become the media darling for how he is handling the problem.

The Anti-lockdown protestors would be better served by pointing out they were  being prevented from working. Even more useful would have been for them to ask those "health care" counterprotestors why they weren't working or resting if they are so overworked. Knowing that the health system made cutbacks during the "crisis" is much better ammunition than 5.56.

So, we need good and accurate information as the debate rages as to how and when the lockdown should end. But saying "who would you kill?" isn't really valid since people will die in this pandemic. The question is at this point is timing since there isn't the vaccine, treatment, or immunity out there.

Also, lockdowns prevent addressing the real issues which are being raised by the pandemic. That's ironic since the pandemic is putting them into the spotlight. But it's easier to call the protestors "covidiots" and dismiss them than it is to have a conversation.

And now is the time for conversation and cooperation.