Wednesday, November 4, 2020

OK, I am still going with a Trump win.

There are only a few states which haven't been called yet and here is a diagram of the State, Votes Left to Count, Current Margin, and Current leader from the Guardian. At this point Trump is the leader in most of these states.

Which takes us to what the current state of the electoral votes would be with the race being 272 to 268 with Biden winning.

Of course,Trump could flip Nevada or Michigan. There are also a few more absentee ballots out there which could help Trump get a close repeat of 2016 by winning AZ, MI, NV, and WI. I think that would be a stretch, but Trump winning MI and NV is a definite possibility.

The Guardian has a mail in ballot tracker which is useful to see how many registered voters there are and how many of those ballots have come back. It's also interesting to see since some of these races may turn out differently from the way they are currently being characterised.

I'm already seeing different results between the BBC and the Guardian coverage as to the margins of victory.

But we know this is going to be a close and contested election.


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