We see it in the primary struggle John McCain finds himself in, running for re-election. It signals that the GOP might be losing the senate, and argues for them to suffer losses in the house as well, at least in part because of Trump as the nominee. This as Hillary Clinton is moving ahead in traditionally conservative Arizona, home of far right wing worst-loser presidential former candidate Barry Goldwater. Trump might perform worse than Goldwater!
As of today, per Epoch Times:
Clinton leads Donald Trump 45 percent to 42 percent in Arizona, a state that voted for a Democratic presidential candidate only once in the last 64 years. Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights surveyed 996 likely voters on Aug. 1 in a poll that included Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.We can see that in part, in the failure of Trump with Hispanics which can be key in states like Arizona. Let's also not forget as we see the Trump purple heart fiasco and his on-going feud with Gold Star parents the Kahns, that Hispanics are the single largest group of Medal of Honor winners, and comprise one of the largesr and fastesr growing ethnic group of our serving military.
Meanwhile, as far back as June, his likely Democratic challenger is pulling ahead in the polls. It might have been a good idea for McCain to hang up his campaign race shoes, and retire gracefully; but it is too late for that now.
Here's where McCain stands in his primary race - the primary election is next week, and how Trump support figures into that election. From Salon, earlier today:
It’s been a big week for Kelli Ward, John McCain’s challenger in the Aug. 30 Republican primary. McCain offended the Trumpian base — which is particularly strong in Arizona — by criticizing Donald Trump’s attacks on Khizr and Ghazala Khan, parents of a fallen soldier who have been denouncing Trump’s anti-Muslim bigotry. Trump then returned the favor by refusing to endorse McCain, even though McCain is facing a competitive primary.I think we can look to Trump having other negative effects on conservative candidate outcomes.
Enter Ward. The 47-year-old osteopath has been serving as a state senator in Arizona for four years and has been polling the strongest in a primary race against McCain. Now that one of the other challengers, Alex Meluskey, has dropped out, Ward is even better set to coalesce the anti-McCain vote behind her.
Ward doesn’t believe that Trump’s popularity is, as some might think, a cult of personality situation, but the result of a conservative revolt against the “political elite.”
“He said things that many Americans were thinking,” she told Salon in an interview Tuesday afternoon. Trump is “surfing” a wave of conservative anger and resentment, she explained, and she believes she is “at the top of the wave.”
But meanwhile returning for the moment to the race for the White House, from Business Insider also today:
Donald Trump's support collapses in 3 of the most important major battlegrounds
Donald Trump received a wave of discouraging polling news Thursday as an extraordinarily damaging week neared its conclusion.
Polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and New Hampshire suggested that a once tight race in the battlegrounds had shifted in favor of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
The polls showed Clinton with a 9-point lead in Michigan, an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania, and a 17-point lead in New Hampshire. In mid-July, polls conducted in each state found the race to be within 3 points in either direction.
In Michigan, where a Detroit News poll found Clinton to hold about a 9-point lead in a contest that included Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, the pollster described "shocking" leads for Clinton in Republican strongholds in the western part of the state.
"He's sitting in the cellar right now, and they're going to have to do something to dramatically turn this around," said Richard Czuba, the president of the Glengariff Group Inc. polling firm. "If I were a Republican running on this ticket right now, I'd be beyond nervous."
The past three polls conducted in Michigan before the Detroit News survey found Clinton with leads of 3 points, 5 points, and 3 points.
"I know that there's a lot of numbers that matter in politics, but Twitter followers still don't trump poll numbers," Michigan Republican strategist Greg McNeilly told the News, referring to Trump's massive social-media following.
and here was the news for PA:
The 11-point advantage in Pennsylvania, found in the poll conducted by Franklin & Marshall College, was the largest lead enjoyed by Clinton since late April, before Trump had sealed the GOP nomination. The poll found Clinton with a 49%-to-38% edge among likely voters that expanded to a 48%-to-35% edge among registered voters.
Trump has made a strong push to put Pennsylvania in play this cycle, though the state hasn't voted for a Republican in the presidential race since 1988.
Between May 8 and July 11, just two of seven polls in the state found the race in the Keystone State separated by more than 2 points, according to RealClearPolitics. Since then, Clinton has enjoyed leads of 4, 9, and now 11 points.
Another eye-opening statistic from the poll: Just two in five Pennsylvania voters who watched the Republican convention last month said it made them more likely to vote for Trump. On the other hand, 53% said it made them less likely to do so.
The numbers were virtually flipped for Clinton, as 62% of those who watched last week's Democratic convention — held in Philadelphia — said they were more likely to vote for the former secretary of state. Only 39% said it made them less likely to vote for the Democratic nominee.
And then we have New Hampshire -- where Sen. Kelly Ayotte is running for senate as well, and is NOT endorsed by Trump:
The other battleground poll released Thursday morning, conducted by WBUR in New Hampshire, found arguably the worst results for Trump.
The Manhattan billionaire now faces a massive 17-point hole in the Granite State — a state where he was found to be within 2 points in mid-July.
WBUR's poll showed Clinton with a 51%-to-34% advantage over Trump. Just 63% of Republicans said they would vote for their party's nominee, while 86% of Democrats were ready to cast ballots for Clinton.
Thursday brought the latest in a wave of bad polling news for Trump that has shown Clinton to be taking bigger national leads. A Fox News poll released Wednesday found Clinton holding a 10-point lead over the real-estate magnate among voters nationwide.Now Ayotte has said she would vote for Trump, while Trump lashed out at her. It looks as if there is no way to win with Trump in the mix, either pro OR anti. He's just TOXIC.
From the WaPo also today:
Sen. Ayotte down 10 in latest New Hampshire poll
Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) is trailing her Democratic rival, Gov. Maggie Hassan, by 10 points in what has been one of the tightest Senate races in the country, according to a new poll from WBUR Radio.
The poll, which was conducted between July 19 and Aug. 1, shows 50 percent of respondents saying they would vote for Hassan if the election were held today, compared with 40 percent for Ayotte. Ayotte is one of the most vulnerable GOP senators up for reelection in a year in which Republicans can afford to lose only three seats if they hope to maintain control of the Senate.
The boost for Hassan also mirrors the surging popularity of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire. Clinton leads Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump 47 to 32 in the state, according to the same poll. Her favorability rating also climbed to 45 percent from 35 percent in May. Meanwhile, Trump’s favorability fell from 33 to 29 percent.and here is where Ayotte is facing something similar to McCain from the more extreme right:
Ayotte has also been attacked from the right as she prepares for a Sept. 13 primary in which she will face four Republican opponents. She is widely expected to win and go on to face Hassan in November, but conservatives have used the opportunity to frame her as an out-of-touch Washington insider.So long as whoever is the GOP candidate in these respective senate races lose to the Democratic candidate, I don't really care who runs. But I would disagree with the assumption that Ayotte will win the primary; rather like McCain, I expect her numbers to continue to dive under the pressure of Trump toxicity alienating sane conservative voters, leaving five candidates to divide up the remaining conservative lunatic fringe.