This doesn't come as a surprise to many of us. Pawlenty would have been wiser to run again for governor, although that would have meant he'd have to deal with the mess he left behind from his last term, when he used smoke and mirrors on the budget, creating many of the problems faced by Governor Dayton and our Republican house and senate. Pawlenty's two terms as governor would probably not have played well with those who are higher information voters, or fans of fact checking. But then that is likely to be true of Governor Perry, who has a state in bad financial shape, and who is near the bottom of metrics like SAT scores as a measure of how low spending impacts the quality of education.
Mitt Romney did very poorly in the meaningless over-hyped straw poll as well, but unlike Michele Bachmann, he is more likely to have staying power. It only remains to be seen if Bachmann has peaked, or if she has a short distance to go before doing so; but I predict she will peak and decline well before the actual final days of the candidate selection process by both parties.
Given the SuperPAC money spent on ads by Stephen Colbert, advocating for write ins for Rick PArry, not Perry, I have to wonder if these are voters in the straw poll who are simply oblivious to the charms of basic cable comedy, or if those votes with the deliberate misspelling were not counted (if any).
From the AP by way of MSNBC:
updated 2 hours 57 minutes ago 2011-08-14T12:58:43
Font: +-breaking news
ST. PAUL, Minn. — Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty announced on Sunday that he was dropping out of the race for the GOP presidential nomination.
He had been eclipsed in polls in recent months by his Minnesota rival, Rep. Michele Bachmann. She won the Iowa Straw Poll on Saturday.
Pawlenty told supporters on a conference call that he would announce on ABC's "This Week" that he was ending his campaign after a disappointing finish in the Iowa straw poll on Saturday.
The poll was a test of organizational strength and popularity in the state whose caucuses lead off the GOP nomination fight.
Pawlenty had struggled to gain traction in Iowa, a state he had said he must win, after laying the groundwork for a campaign for nearly two years.
Pawlenty was a victim of being an unappealing candidate and a primary season schedule that was going to make it difficult.
ReplyDeleteAll in all, that’s sad -- don't we want to debate idea not be glamorized by Media creations ??? Pawlenty’s real problem was his ideas … he thought that the deficit could be solved by cutting Corporate taxes that would produce 5% GDP growth rate while also cutting spending … and then his total embrace of the social conservative agenda, just made he seem totally unrealistic.
The schedule is the killer … he should have known that Iowa would go to some sort of Christian Fundamentalist … Huckabee/Palin did not happen but Bachmann/Santorum did … then New Hampshire was Romney’s … he had to focus on Florida … he wasted too much money and time in Iowa … if he hadn’t made Iowa his “wall”, it wouldn’t have been his “last stand”.
Bachmann’s win was really shaky … Ron Paul was the one that really did well … IMO, look at the number of “paid” voters (many of the campaigns bought the $30 tickets and gave them out free or at a discounted rate, just to get bodies to vote … it’s a joke) … but if you think about how many decided to throw away their votes by supporting Santorum / Cain / Gingrich / etc, that says that enough Bachmann voters realize that she cannot win. Pawlenty saw those wasted votes and realized he could not compete ... no matter how much he embraced the social agenda.
Bachmann should do well during the official Iowa caucus, but New Hampshire will start her fall … so will Nevada where Romney won last time … South Carolina will be her battleground with Perry …but the real field will finalize after Florida with Romney, Perry and Paul … then it will be a fight to the finish for Romney and Perry … in the end, my money is on Romney … but given how long Huckabee stalked McCain (and Clinton followed Obama), a Perry nomination is not out of the question.
Now, two questions …
How do Sixth District voters feel about being represented by a national ideologue who claims she’s an Iowan ?
Will Pawlenty see the path to the 2016 or 2020 nomination starts with a term in the US Senate … and with MN-GOP still having an opening, will T-Paw challenge Klobuchar next November ?
Minnesota Central, I agree with about 90% of your analysis here. However, regardless of whether or not I agree with it, it is clearly very well thought-out and presented in an understandable manner.
ReplyDelete