Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Neville Chamberlain aka Donald Trump

The former British Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, who famously was quoted as having achieved "Peace in Our Time" after giving away the Sudetenland (from Czechoslovakia, which objected to this action) is famous not for having achieved peace but rather for having enabled war.  Not only did he give Nazi Germany a portion of another country without it having to risk anything, he gave them the military capabilities and industrial strength of an iron-rich region of Europe and a famously productive tank works in Prague (which Germany soon annexed right after taking the Sudetenland).  Chamberlain felt he could "manage" Hitler, that Hitler's demands, while strong, were not entirely unreasonable given that he was trying to unify the "German People" under one governmental umbrella and if Europe gave in to these demands that would be the end of it and by doing so avoid another great war.  This lead to Chamberlain going down as the great "appeaser" of Europe.  A man who's actions did not avoid war but hastened it.

Donald Trump believes he can manage Vladimr Putin.  He believes Putin's demands about the Crimea (and presumably Georgia) were/are reasonable.  He believes Putin's aims of creating a homogenous Russia of ethnic Russians are reasonable.  Putin has modernized the Russian military.  He has threatened nuclear attack on Poland and the invasion of the Baltic States. He has bullied Byelorus and Turkmenistan (among others) of his neighbors, into being his puppets (like Hungary and Rumania were German puppets).  He HAS invaded Georgia, the Crimea and the Donbas (the industrial heartland of eastern Ukraine).  He HAS assisted Bashar Assad with the brutal destruction of Alleppo and the slaughter of it's citizens.  Now Putin and Assad are "hammering" out a peace deal unilaterally because, quite frankly, Russia has NO fear of reprisal from the West given Donald J Chamberlain is about to be our President.  The oil sanctions, which have cost Russia dearly, will go away and Putin will undoubtedly feel safe in threatening, and perhaps attacking other of his neighbors.   Russia is not the kind of military power which Germany was in 1939, except, EXCEPT that it has nuclear weapons and is willing to threaten their use.

Donald "the Appeaser:" also is happy to appease Benjamin Netenyahu, the belicose PM of Israel who continued the aggressive conduct of Ariel Sharon, building settlements in the West Bank despite world-wide condemnation and prior agreement by the Israelis to not do so.  Netenyahu has become a co-belligerent in this dispute as the Israeli government clamped down more and more harsh controls on Palestinians over the past 16 years and built settlements in direct violation of their own promises.  Netenyahu complained that a "friend doesn't take a friend to the UN", well a friend doesn't come before the legislature of a friend and lecture them either.

Trump will give in to Netenyahu as well, He will turn a blind-eye to a two-state solution.  He will allow Netenyahu to bully the Palestinians and from it, we, the US will be seen as enabling the Israeli administration, it will be buttressing a leader who has repeatedly taken the most aggressive approach imaginable toward the Palestinians during the 8 years of the Obama administration.  Even so, with the Obama "abstain" vote on the UN resolution condemning further Israeli construction of settlements, Netenyahu has asked his own legislature to table further funding of settlements, in short, he got the message that the US CAN take another approach.  It CAN put Israel up for scrutiny by THE REST OF THE WORLD, including England, including France, including China, nations which are not unreasonable in their demands that Israel stop.  The US has stood by and protected Israel from that condemnation, in resolute adherence of respect to our ally, but that ally has poked us in the eye time and again by ignoring even its own long-term interest by abandoning the two-state approach and so risk war with its neighbors and on-going violence from the Palestinians.   The Arab nations have made it absolutely plain there will be no long-term peace with Israel without peace between the Palestinians and Israel and THAT requires a two-state solution.

Yet, Trumperlain insists he's going to "be a great friend" to Israel, meaning he's not going to push for an end to settlement construction, for a two-state resolution, and so that means he's going to appease the hard-liners in Israel and give them license to continue to obstruct any long-term resolution.  He's going to be a weak, facile lick-spittle to Netenyahu.  What's worse, is that in so doing, he's going to make war between Israel and it's neighbors more likely, not less. He's going to make terrorism in Israel more likely, not less.  There are some who will say there will be terrorism regardless, and that's true, but how much?  Between 2009 and 2013 there were ZERO civilian Israeli deaths to terrorism inside Israel, ZERO.  Since the re-engagement of construction and the isolation of Gaza, there have been dozens.  Simplistic arguments of requiring perfection in any solution does not change the fact that a FRIEND advises a friend that they are on a perilous course, and a friend may even become exasperated with a friend who repeatedly cuts off their own nose.  A friend does not meekly and slavishly simply cow-tow to anything their friend wants to do.  Friends give friends hard advice when they need it, rather than remaining deaf, dumb and blind as that friend rushes into a more war-like and war likely world.

Those people, Trumerlains and Daladierumpians alike, those who will be ass-kissers first, are weak people who embolden, not restrain, tyrants and fools.  Those people make war and terrorism and a violent world MORE likely, not less.   Those people are weak leaders, they think they're clever, but in reality they are just the tools of those tyrants.

1 comment:

  1. To be fair to Chamberlain, he felt he was in a weak position, that the UK absolutely would not go to war under his or anyone's leadership, and that if they did they were in an extremely poor position to pursue war, and would likely lose.

    So he knew he was playing from a weak hand, so to speak, more than he was a weaker player than Hitler.

    While he publicly appeared to be an appeaser, I would argue the greater truth is that he was stalling in order to buy time to build up the capacity of the UK to go to war successfully, and that he gambled that he could do so in a sufficiently rapid fashion so as to be able to stop Hitler. That he received at best mixed support for that effort, is a fair assessment of history. He could not do everything alone.
    But unlike Trump, Chamberlain did not willingly allow Germany to annex the Sudetenland (that is I believe an unfair version of history) and he ALWAYS knew that Hitler was going to go the direction he did, and he opposed him.

    "[Chamberlain] told the Cabinet in early October 1938, "[I]t would be madness for the country to stop rearming until we were convinced that other countries would act in the same way. For the time being, therefore, we should relax no particle of effort until our deficiencies had been made good."
    Self, Robert (2006). Neville Chamberlain: A Biography. Ashgate.

    Perhaps more significant is that Chamberlain's policies were -- to quote an oft used phrase to describe it -- "wildly popular".

    While the Sudetenland gets the most attention, I actually found the unwilling unification of Austria and Germany, the "Anschluss", is a better parallel to Crimea and the larger Ukraine being annexed by Russia into one country, given Putin appears to desire to restore the failed Soviet Union, and idolizes Stalin.

    You may have inspired me to write a new post...

    But back to Trump, Trump is no Chamberlain, he is far more inept than any figure I can conjure up from WW II, and Trump is far less principled or savvy than ol' Neville.

    Perhaps more sadly, far too many of the low-information voters who support Trump know of ANY Chamberlain other than possibly Wilt Chamberlain. And Wilt's a reach for many of them.

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