Afghanistan

Tonight President Obama will announce the long-term troop dispositions for the continuing fight in Afghanistan. It is assumed that he will announce we will reduce the number of troops by 10,000 or so by the end of 2012.

This war was started in the fall of 2001 after Al Qaeda operatives (most of whom were Pakistani) were trained and sheltered in Afghanistan by the extremist government of the Taliban, headed by Mullah Mohamed Omar. Attacking Afghanistan after it abetted an attack on our soil was more than justified.

Staying 10 years in an occupation role, propping up a government not loved by its people, which has the same flaws of corruption, drug trafficking, and depravity which caused the people of Afghanistan to chose the Taliban over that form of government after a half-dozen years after the Soviets left, is not justified.

There is nothing we can do to save Afghanistan from eventually choosing its own course, of having its people choose what they prefer, either by vote or by fiat of supporting totalitarians they know (the Taliban) over those they abhor. Much like Iraq, our military presence only prolonged the ability of thugs to put-off the reckoning necessary.

On Sunday, Sec of Defense Robert Gates, a man I have deep respect for, created a strawman argument for our continuing presence in Afghanistan, asking,"just like in 2001, what is the price of failure?" The problem is that we have NO evidence that had we stayed involved in Afghanistan in the 90's that we'd have succeeded, in fact the evidence suggests the exact opposite. Afghanistan is a country deeply distrustful of outsiders, and which reviles occupiers just as they reviled the Soviets. Equally, there is no evidence our continuing presence in Afghanistan will stave off further Al Qaeda attacks. The destruction of the safe havens in Afghanistan WAS impactful on Al Qaeda, the further killing or capture of their leadership since then, especially the death of Bin Laden, has had a highly destructive effect on Al Qaeda, but nearly ALL of that success has been through our actions in Pakistan. Pakistan is the heartbed of Wahabism (along with the Saudi peninsula). Our presence in Afghanistan in fact is a lightning rod for Al Qaeda. Suggesting our lack of presence in Afghanistan LEAD to 9/11/2001 is no more supportable than demanding a homeless man prove he's homeless. It requires someone to prove if we had been there it wouldn't have been different, that can't be proved. The obligation on Gates' part (and on McCain's part who made a similar argument), is to prove that staying WILL make a material difference. They can't, and they can't because it won't. You don't couch your foreign policy in fear of what 'might' happen if we don't do something, you state your goal, you support it with reason and fact, and you live with the consequences if you fail. In this case, President Bush failed to properly staff/support putting a REAL government in place in Afghanistan and so, since nature abhors a vacuum, the same old thugs resurfaced once the Taliban was gone.

Our mission in Afghanistan, and its success in providing stability, has improved dramatically since Obama took office and the contemptuous attitude the Republicans showed toward Iraqi and Afghani casualties was pushed aside (starting in 2007 in Iraq and in 2009 in Afghanistan). Ultimately our failure to move aside the corrupt Karzai government, though, a government Bush embraced and which Obama deserves condemnation for not more aggressively pushing aside, is our epitaph in Afghanistan. Our presence there no longer does any meaningful good. It saves lives today, but only until we leave. Ultimately they must sort this out themselves and whether they do this today or in 5 years only makes one point of difference, we spend 5 more years of money, blood, and lives pushing the decision off 5 more years, and nothing more.

I sincerely hope Obama gains the guts many of us thought he had when we voted for him and finally stands up to the out of control spending on the military which this nation has engaged in without relent and simply says "no more." No more lives, no more public spigot for private contractors when it gains us nothing. It is time to go.