The Pew Poll from late December of 2011 shows a more negative correlation between the attitudes towards the Tea Party and the GOP, in approval and disapproval ratings. The change appeared to be reflected in the markedly lower turn out from 2008 AND 2010. That lower turnout, if it holds for the general election (which it typically does) could make the reverse of that critical trends we saw in the 2010 election cycle (compared to the 2008).
But lets back up and take a look at relatively constant percentages, as they relate to political and economic terms, as a baseline:
In the 2010 election cycle, the Tea Party paired up with the GOP, given that most tea partiers had previously BEEN Republican voters, to give them a big turnout, resulting in big election wins post-2008. That is not true NOW, and it isn't boding well for the Republicans, particularly as evident from low turnouts so far. While not an absolute predictor - a lot can happen to change turn out - early turn out for caucuses and primaries is still a significant marker for the general election. The Tea Party is still largely old, white conservative - only 1% were from minorities at their peak - but now they're mad as hell at the GOP!
While the right is gaining among the religious, it is also fracturing their base. In contrast the left is gaining even more among Hispanics, (Florida is one example, where Cuban Americans had voted largely conservative before)with both groups shaping up as major influences on the outcome of the 2012 elections.
"As recently as 2006, more Hispanics in Florida were registered as Republicans than as Democrats."This will be significant, given the polling outlook of Hispanic voters on the economy. There is still a preponderance of people who hold Bush and the Republicans responsible for the economic crisis from which we are still suffering. Hispanic voters see themselves, quite correctly, as suffering more during the economic downturn than other demographic groups. Their outlook for the future is more optimistic than those less affected demographics - and Hispanics, while not a group to be taken for granted by Progressives, are already coming out for Obama and Democrats.
So it would appear that the culture wars, and the emphasis on theocratic conformity to their views and issues from the religious right, are going to divide Republicans, while the Democrats - if they don't exercise their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory through mistakes - are unifying key groups.
While the Republican caucus I attended talked large about keeping their majorities in Minnesota, and adding the White House and the Senate at the national level. But the low turnout in Minnesota, along with the vote for Santorum (who while in Congress had the worst approval rating of any Senator), who is unlikely to be able to win his home state, much less any other states, and the marked rejection of Romney, Paul and Gingrich, doesn't argue well for success in 2012 on the right, and less so while they continue to move right, leaving their own party members behind.
The Tea Party is angry at the Republicans; everyone else disapproves more of the Republicans and the Tea Partiers than the alternatives. It still remains to be seen what force, if any, the new populist movement, the Occupy groups, will bring to bear, for or against the political status quo (from TPM).
"A new poll from the Pew Research Center shows that support for the Tea Party — and with it the Republican Party — has dropped precipitously in the last year. Now just 20% say they agree with the Tea Party, less than the 27% who disagree. But the news gets worse for Republicans: their favorability has dropped even further in Tea Party districts.
This is part of an ongoing trend, with polls this year consistently showing a narrowing of support for the Tea Party movement. In April, Pew found that as recognition of the Tea Party grew, their favorability declined. Specifically, disapproval rose 15 points between March 2010 and April 2011. And as TPM reported in September, according to a CBS/ORC Poll, fully 53% of the public had an unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party compared to a meager 28% with a favorable view. By October, the Occupy Wall Street movement had eked out a higher approval rating than the Tea Party.
Despite this trend, the new numbers represent a new low not only for the Tea Party but for the Republican Party. Whereas before, the growing disapproval of the Tea Party came from Democrats, moderates, and even moderate Republicans, these numbers show that Republican favorability has fallen steeply in Tea Party districts, 41% favorable to 48% unfavorable. Just a few months ago in March, GOP approval in these districts was a much higher 55%.
Last November, when Republicans swept up dozens of seats to take the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, the Tea Party’s favorability was way up, meaning today’s numbers do not bode well for Republicans trying to hold the House in 2012. Moreover, during the last election cycle, approval of the Tea Party in these 60 districts — including 17 freshmen elected in 2010 — had outstripped disapproval, now approval is about the same as disapproval, 25% to 23%. And while Tea Party disapproval has steadily increased across the board, the debt-ceiling debacle this summer seems to have been a turning point in public opinion both of the Tea Party and the Republican Party. This fall, Republican intransigence against Obama’s jobs plan didn’t help them either. As all eyes turn towards 2012, Republicans need to shake off what appears to be buyers’ remorse in these key districts."
The Republicans are no longer the monolithic bloc they were able to manage in 2010. Even on their most key culture war issue, abortion, they've fragmented. Possibly the most encouraging indicator for me that it is possible, after this fragmentation of the right takes its inevitable course, that the preponderance of the GOP, of reasonable conservatives who have largely defected to be Independents, will coalesce into a party which once again is a functional and effective political counterbalance, instead of a collection of dysfunctional extremists. This is possibly the most encouraging group with the GOP that I have seen so far, Republicans for Choice.. Finally, Republicans that respect women, that aren't waging culture wars on women, where moderate is NOT a dirty word, and where there is a place for the voter who is NOT low information, and not single-issue oriented:
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