Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Elections have consequences, RIGHT, Governor Snyder?

Michigan Governor Snyder can kiss any re-election hopes good bye. 

The only thing he has grown is his disapproval ratings, as evident from the recent Public Policy Polling post-passage of right to work laws.  Well, he's growing disapproval ratings, but also typically right to work states also grow occupational fatalities (ranging from 34% to 41% higher); increases in work related deaths are just not popular.  What they DON'T grow are either jobs, especially good paying kinds of work, or good compensation, either in the form of salaries and wages, OR benefits.

I found a site that tracks occupational fatalities by state as part of state health rankings, and then cross-referenced them with right to work states. The right wing organization that actually drafted the right to work legislation that has been passed in states with right wing legislatures and governors who all belong to or have attended ALEC private sessions ALL have higher occupational fatality rates. So. Carolina has been particularly touted by ALEC as a RTW success; for example their fatality rate is 5.20 per 100,000 people; MN, which is not a RTW state's rate is 2.70 per100,000. There are plenty of RTW states which are worse, like Louisiana, at 8.10/100,000 or northern states, like North Dakota, at 7.60/100,000.  Michigan before RTW had been at 3.70/100,000; expect that number to climb.

While right wing sources tout OSHA and other agencies as providing safety standards, unions typically bargain for better standards than the state and federal minimums.

Poll: Michigan Gov. Snyder’s Popularity Tanks After Right-To-Work Bill

From TPM wire:

The approval rating of Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is in the gutter, according to a poll released Tuesday, the strongest evidence yet of the political perils associated with the right-to-work legislation he signed into law last week.
According to the latest automated survey from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, only 38 percent of Michigan voters approve of the job Snyder is doing, compared with 56 percent who disapprove. In PPP's previous survey of Michigan in November, Snyder's approval rating was 10 points above water: 47 percent of voters approved of his performance as governor, while 37 percent disapproved.
The right-to-work bill, signed by Snyder amid mass protests, appears to have changed the political climate in the Great Lake State. Fifty-one percent of Michigan voters oppose the bill, which made Michigan the country's 24th right-to-work state, while 41 percent support the legislation. Moreover, Snyder trails every Democrat in hypothetical matchups of the 2014 gubernatorial election.
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Not only has he shot himself in the proverbial foot, his actions, which have been typical of other Republican governors and legislators that are unpopular, will probably carry over to 2014 in other races, adding to the significant unpopularity and disapproval that the GOP seems determined to rack up as they serve their wealthy 2% masters. 

The notion that they are serving their constituents is getting thinner and more threadbare by the moment.  Conservatives are resistant to change, intransigent, and apparently increasingly incapable of learning from their mistakes.  They haven't had a new idea in decades, and they haven't had a successful policy position on EITHER social or economic issues for even longer.

That their policies are failed is evident by the results of not only the first decade of the 21st century, but from the Republican presidencies post-Eisenhower onward.  The further right the GOP has gone, the worse the result for the country.  In 2012, the best they could do was run two unpleasant men who disparaged a large segment of the population that included a major segment of their supporters, although those supporters may have been too ignorant to recognize themselves in the 'moocher/taker 47%', despite receiving significant government assistance in red states.  Red states typically take more from that evil big federal government than blue states, but that doesn't stop the ignorant righties from trying to bite the hand that literally helps feed them.  Did Romney/Lyin' Ryan have any NEW ideas? Hell no, they couldn't even provide details on their tatty old Dubya policies and plans.

Right to work in poverty laws are not popular.  They create moochers and free riders who benefit from collective bargaining without contributing to the costs of that bargaining.  That the GOP = Hypocrisy is evident in their opposition to measures like a tax penalty to discourage health care free-riders under Romneycare and Obamacare, as well as union moochers and takers.  Right to work laws are simply an effort at union busting.  Right to work doesn't grow economies, right to work states have markedly lower wages, and among the most serious problems with right to work legislation - ironically, much of the research done by the University of Michigan - shows that there is a 56% increase in occupational fatalities in right to work states, and that those fatalities increase AFTER right to work legislation is passed due to the inability of unions to organize not only for better middle class wages, but safer working conditions.

More than that, we can look to both the courts to overturn legislation passed in Michigan due to violations of sunshine laws -- in some cases, locking citizens out of the state legislature to avoid citizen input.  But there also appears to be a great determination to undo by repeal and referenda the extremist right wing legislation passed in Michigan during their lame duck session.

I think it is a safe bet that Snyder has done his political career, his state legacy, and his party greater harm than he calculated.  What the 2012 election cycle showed was that while in the past, big money had been very successful in 'buying' elections (turning them more into auctions than elections) that was much less successful than in the past.  Based on 2012, I think it is a fair projection that pumping big right wing money into elections will have steadily diminishing returns; some moves are so unpopular that you can't spend your way back into the good graces of voters, no matter how much money you spend.  Governor Snyder may just be the new poster child for that kind of political desperation and miscalculation.


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