PPP: Minnesota could be one of the Swing States in 2014, ousting the GOP from Congressional control, (Shut Down and Immigrtion Reform)

The image at right is a play on words -- a play on swing state, and a play on the conservatives styling the Tea Party caucus as the suicide caucus.

So, before anyone gets their knickers in a twist over political correctness, I want to point out the suicide concept comes from the right to describe the extremist right.

Thanks to candid statements by the Radical Right, aka the Suicide Party, aka the Tea Party, it turns out that one of the thing they are claiming to have WON in the shut down maneuver was to run out the clock on discussion and voting on Immigration Reform.  It was supposedly just all a very expensive delaying tactic all along, with the pretext of repealing or delaying Obamacare more of a very profitable smokescreen to the real agenda — a smokescreen that raised a LOT of money for those on the radical right.


But not only was that a poor and very dishonest stratagem, if the latest PPP polling is correct, it could cost the conservatives the House, including our own John Kline.  The Huff Po touched on this:

Recently, Public Policy Polling (PPP) conducted surveys for MoveOn.org in 36 swing Congressional districts with Republican incumbents and found that, after the shutdown, Democrats could easily win at least 29. Democrats only need 17 seats to take control of the House. In virtually every district the shutdown was highly unpopular and messaging about the shutdown increased the Democratic lead in the survey.
Republicans have to take at least six seats to take control of the Senate next year. But another PPP poll released yesterday in six key swing Senate races — this one sponsored by Americans United for Change — found that voters were extremely unhappy with the shutdown and as a result Democrats led in five and are tied in a sixth. That is particularly true because many of the GOP Senate challengers are currently members of the House majority that helped lead the shutdown effort.
But that’s not all. The shutdown battle exploded divisions and disunity in the GOP. It exposed a civil war in the Republican Party between the Tea Party and the Party’s establishment, the business wing that provides its financial base. And it created greater unity in the Democratic Party and progressive movement than at any other time in the last half century.

And the PPP polling, from back in July, is available here, which noted:

House Republicans Could Face Voter Backlash if Immigration Reform Stalls
New Public Policy Polling surveys in 7 Congressional Districts across the country find that key Republicans could be in trouble if the House doesn’t pass immigration reform this year.
The polls show two things:
Republican and Independent voters want Congress to pass a solution to our country’s broken immigration system
Many are less likely to support Republicans if the House fails to pass immigration reform this summer
Voters in CA-10 (Jeff Denham), CA-21 (David Valadao), CA-31 (Gary Miller), CO-6 (Mike Coffman), MN-2 (John Kline), NV-3 (Joe Heck), and NY-11 (Mike Grimm) all say they would be less likely to vote for their Congressman next year if he opposes immigration reform. Voters in those districts also say they will be inclined to punish the Republican Party more broadly if the House GOP does not allow immigration reform to move forward.
The reason voters would hold it against their officials if immigration reform does not pass is that there’s overwhelming support for it in each of these highly competitive districts. Anywhere from 61 to 69% support the proposal the Senate passed last month. There’s also a sense of urgency on the issue with 75 to 78% of voters in each district saying they think it’s important the US fix its immigration system this year.

That last sentence is significant – “…it’s important the U.S. fix its immigration system this year”. Someone who doesn’t want to fix immigration, and who fears immigrants voting for Democrats, needs a REALLY good – as in popular – excuse not to deal with immigration reform.  This could effect BOTH the Senate and the House elections in 2014. - See more at: http://mnpoliticalroundtable.com/2013/10/18/ppp-minnesota-is-one-of-the-swing-states-in-2014-to-oust-the-gop-from-congressional-control-and-the-shut-down/#sthash.9zRnX3IM.dpuf

House Republicans Could Face Voter Backlash if Immigration Reform Stalls
New Public Policy Polling surveys in 7 Congressional Districts across the country find that key Republicans could be in trouble if the House doesn’t pass immigration reform this year.
The polls show two things:
Republican and Independent voters want Congress to pass a solution to our country’s broken immigration system
Many are less likely to support Republicans if the House fails to pass immigration reform this summer
Voters in CA-10 (Jeff Denham), CA-21 (David Valadao), CA-31 (Gary Miller), CO-6 (Mike Coffman), MN-2 (John Kline), NV-3 (Joe Heck), and NY-11 (Mike Grimm) all say they would be less likely to vote for their Congressman next year if he opposes immigration reform. Voters in those districts also say they will be inclined to punish the Republican Party more broadly if the House GOP does not allow immigration reform to move forward.
The reason voters would hold it against their officials if immigration reform does not pass is that there’s overwhelming support for it in each of these highly competitive districts. Anywhere from 61 to 69% support the proposal the Senate passed last month. There’s also a sense of urgency on the issue with 75 to 78% of voters in each district saying they think it’s important the US fix its immigration system this year.

Thanks to candid statements by the Radical Right, aka the Suicide Party, aka the Tea Party, it turns out that one of the thing they are claiming to have WON in the shut down maneuver was to run out the clock on discussion and voting on Immigration Reform.  It was supposedly just all a very expensive delaying tactic all along, with the pretext of repealing or delaying Obamacare more of a very profitable smokescreen to the real agenda — a smokescreen that raised a LOT of money for those on the radical right.
But not only was that a poor and very dishonest stratagem, if the latest PPP polling is correct, it could cost the conservatives the House, including our own John Kline.  The Huff Po touched on this:

That last sentence is significant – “…it’s important the U.S. fix its immigration system this year”. Someone who doesn’t want to fix immigration, and who fears immigrants voting for Democrats, needs a REALLY good – as in popular – excuse not to deal with immigration reform. This could effect BOTH the Senate and the House elections in 2014.

Republicans have to take at least six seats to take control of the Senate next year. But another PPP poll released yesterday in six key swing Senate races — this one sponsored by Americans United for Change — found that voters were extremely unhappy with the shutdown and as a result Democrats led in five and are tied in a sixth. That is particularly true because many of the GOP Senate challengers are currently members of the House majority that helped lead the shutdown effort.

Here is what that PPP polling said about Kline:

-In MN-2, 44% of voters say they’ll be less likely to support John Kline next year if he votes against immigration reform, to only 19% more likely to. 77% in the district think it’s important for the US to fix its immigration system this year, and voters support this specific plan by a 69/24 margin. There’s 66/29 support from Republicans and 65/26 from independents.

As the Huff Po article quoted above noted in “Why Did the GOP Miscalculate So Badly in the Shutdown Battle?”, the GOP expected some blow back, but not apparently to the extent they received. Kline may or may not have been enamored of the tactic, but he went along with the rank and file hijacked by the Tea Party radical right in voting for the shut down. The excuse for this delay in immigration reform may very well be part of the reason why, since I’m certainly unaware of any strong primary candidate to his right in the district.

The PPP July polling was pre-shut down; those swing districts aren’t looking any happier with their members of Congress post-shutdown, so the idea that this is providing a pretext, and excuse, not to deal with immigration reform because it was necessary to shut down the government over Obamacare looks to be a failed effort. Here is the PPP link to the post-shut-down results.

Rather, it places all of the conservative members of Congress who voted for the shut down in greater, not less jeopardy. Let us hope the Minnesota Democrats, and the Democratic party nationally, don’t drop the ball on this. It is theirs to lose.