I know the big thing for people is to knock Trump for somehow causing all this, but I have a hard time doing that when I look at the time line.
And, yes, I can do this without having to mention the impeachment after this opening.
Ukraine was the most populous and industrialised republic after the Russian Soviet Republic, until regaining its independence in 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Following its independence, Ukraine formed a unitary republic under a semi-presidential system, with separation of powers into legislative, executive, and judicial branches. It declared itself a neutral state in 1994.
Which takes us to the First International Agreement relating to Ukraine's Independence: The Budapest Memorandum of 1994. The memorandum was struck in 1994, following lengthy and complicated negotiations involving the then Russian president Boris Yeltsin, Ukrainian president Leonid Kuchma, US president Bill Clinton and the then British prime minister John Major.
The Budapest Memorandum consists of a series of political assurances whereby the signatory states commit to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine”. But the meaning of the security assurances was deliberately left ambiguous. According to a former US diplomat who participated in the talks, Steven Pifer, it was understood that if there was a violation, there would be a response incumbent on the US and the UK. And while that response was not explicitly defined, Pifer notes that: “there is an obligation on the United States that flows from the Budapest Memorandum to provide assistance to Ukraine, and […] that would include lethal military assistance”.
For the most part, this memorandum has been neglected in the "Anglo-Saxon" press. On the other hand, it might explain why the US and UK were expecting a Russian Invasion of Ukraine, while the Europe was expecting that Putain wouldn't go much further than threaten.
There is a bit more history here, but we next get to 2014 since that was an important year with Euromaidan, The Russian Annexation of Crimea, and the beginning of the conflict in the Donbass. I'm not going to get into the allegations of Western (in particular US) interference by instigating the Maidan Revolt. But, the US failed to invoke its guarantee for Ukraine's independence under the Budapest Memorandum.
Who was President and Vice President in 2014??? Fortunately, Hillary Clinton was no longer Secretary of State.
I've already mentions MH17 and the fighting in the Donbass, which provided one of the reasons for the Russian invasion, but there were the Minsk Accords signed at this time. This was firmly during the period 2014-2015. There was no attempt to put in place an international peacekeeping force.
There are a few problems with addressing a certain president since, like mention of these international agreements, is not accurate or verifiable, in the media. One of which is NATO involvement in Ukraine. There was an assurance to Russia that NATO "would not move one inch eastward" during negotiations for German Unification. Of course, that assurance was broken ironically by George W. Bush. I did find this interesting line from David Palumbo-Liu in the Stanford Daily:
In the fall of 2021, the idea of Ukraine joining NATO was gone, but it had become a de facto NATO state. While Obama had refused to arm the Ukrainians, Trump began selling them arms, which has only intensified under the Biden administration. Turkey has also sold the Ukrainians drones. This all forms part of the bigger picture. It is unclear whether Putin’s actions are in reaction to these specific measures, or if he is simply seizing upon them as a pretext for doing what he has always wanted to do.
Although, the Budapest Memorandum and other agreements made it clear that NATO would give aid should Ukraine's independence be violated. That's not happening much. OK, NATO is giving supplies.
In fact, if we are going to get into it, these agreements have not been mentioned in the media during the build up of the current situation. That's a shame.
Likewise, the use of an international peacekeeping force in the disputed regions of Ukraine would have been helpful. On the other hand, the Ukrainian Resistance didn't need help from outside sources to fight. But it would be nice if the west, especially the US, kept its word.
There were ways that the west could have prevented this situation. It was in no way inevitable, but there has been a silence on the issue of Ukraine, its independence, and the guarantees for that independence. It is unsurprising that Ukrainian leaders and Ukrainians both in Ukraine and abroad feel betrayed since the security assurances they received in the Budapest Memorandum are not worth the paper they were written on.
As Putain's forces destroy the land and people they claim to be saving.
As I said, we're like the Kurds: only mentioned when it is politically helpful.
And we can still fight on our own.
- A letter to the Western Left from Kyiv
- Text of the Budapest Agreement
- Factbox: What are the Minsk agreements on the Ukraine conflict?
- Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush,
- The Ukrainian Insurgent Army — Inside One of WW2’s Strangest Resistance Movements
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