Adam Casey made this comment about the FSB and FSB troops which pretty much cements for me that its only a matter of time, and lives, before the Russians are defeated by the Ukrainians. The FSB is corrupt, which means it isn't really loyal. A corrupt service can be bought off: especially if it means they get to live.
People try to fit this into the framework of past wars: usually people with no military experience. Yes, there is a war which this fits into: the Winter War between Russia and Finland of 39-40. It didn't go well for Russia.
Let's toss in that the Russians started their war in Ukraine's mud season. Rasputitsa is a Russian term for two seasons of the year, spring and autumn, when travel on unpaved roads or across country becomes difficult. Rasputitsa are well known as a great defensive advantage in wartime. Common nicknames include General Mud and Marshal Mud. A spring thaw probably saved Novgorod from conquest and sacking during the 13th-century Mongol invasion. During the French invasion of Russia in 1812, Napoleon found the mud a great hindrance. The months-long muddy period slowed the German advance on the Eastern Front during the Second World War. It was particularly important during the Battle of Moscow (October 1941 to January 1942) and may have helped save the Soviet capital from German occupation.
Ukraine is the poorest nation in Europe with the infrastructure to go with that. There are rumours that mud and poor maintenance are reasons for Russian tanks stalling.
Of course, you would think a Russian officer would know that, but...
Getting back to the starting proposition, the Times (UK) has published an article by an FSB whistleblower who is hinting that Russian dead could already be over 10,000. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m and https://truepublica.org.uk/global/fsb-whistleblower-this-war-will-be-a-total-failure/
The FSB whistleblower went on to say that – “By and large, though, Russia has no way out. There are no options for a possible victory, only defeat.”
https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report
In looking at Putin’s strategy, experienced commentators such as retired senior military officers mostly agree that the war is unwinnable. Right now approximately 70 per cent of Russia’s mobile military units are in full operation. Indeed, even if Putin was able to declare victory by taking Kyiv, other major cities and ports, it’s an unmistakable fact that Ukraine is the largest country in continental Europe with the exception of Russia itself. Attempting to control well over 40 million hostile citizens in a landmass that’s a fifth larger than France would take unbelievable resources that Russia simply does not have.
It is estimated that not including supply and logistics, well over 500,000 troops would be needed to control Ukraine.
The Soviets invaded under the miconception that they would be greeted as "liberators". Once the Russians realised that there would be resistance, the Russian army is trying to pound cities into submission with rockets, bombs, and artillery. All that is counterproductive to their strategy since they are destroying the people and places they claim to be saving, which is something that is lost in the Western media.
The problem is that Putin sees admitting defeat as weakness. He has also hinted at a willingness to use nuclear weapons without any real provocation. No matter what the scenario, the Russians continue to face stiff resistance they could even decide to go nuclear. In their armory are short-range tactical nuclear weapons that would devastate infrastructure and buildings.
This isn't Hitler. Or Saddam Hussein. It is the real madman sitting on enough nuclear weapons to wipe out the planet several times over. That is a verifiable fact.
Americans shit their pants when a few buildings get wiped out: what are they going to do when a couple of cities are vapourised?
There are ways to support Ukraine without actually "getting invovled", especially since Ukrainians are known to fight hard: even without outside support. The Vietnamese had the Ho Chi Minh Trail. And The Ukrainians have a reputation for a porous border between them and the EU.
Any modern war will be asymetric, meaning a guerilla war where the larger foe is worn down. Not that it's that modern a strategy: it's how the US gained its independence. The modern twist is having weapons which can destroy a resisting citizenry. Of course, as I keep pointing out, Russia is killing and destroying the people it is claiming to save. They are destroying the village to save it.
That's what makes this war very scary since to old paradigms no longer apply. It's the horror film.
ADDITION: I am seeing tweets saying that the Pentagon is reporting that 100% of the Russian troops mobilised for this operation have been deployed. That says to me that the Russians have over-extended their resources.
Sources:
- The Lesson of Sarajevo — Putin Can’t Win
- Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Was a Dumb Move
- Plougshares Fund: Nuclear Stockpiles.
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