Le Monde has an interesting article on how Western Intelligence Agencies had differing views on what Putain's intent was toward Ukraine (https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2022/03/04/l-invasion-russe-en-ukraine-un-scenario-qui-a-divise-les-services-de-renseignement-occidentaux_6116170_3210.html). The US and UK agencies had the scenario that Putain would invade Ukraine, while the European Agencies were under the impression that he would "negotiate" in some way. The "Anglo-Saxon" agencies were pretty much certain that Putain would invade. On the other hand, the European Agencies knew what the level of Ukrainian resistance would be. Also, the "Anglo-Saxon" agencies didn't factor in that this would increase European Unity.
In my opinion, the "Anglo-Saxon" agencies were influenced by Russia and did not know that Europe would become more united. I think I may have said in another post that if Putain's intent was to keep Ukraine (and other former Soviet Satellites) out of the EU and NATO, that this would have the opposite effect. Of course, this neglects that Ukrainians have been independent since 1991, which is guaranteed by the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, and want to defend that independence. I have mixed opinions about the Donbass region and Crimea, but the fact that there has only been a "low-level" conflict in the Donbass since March 2014 makes me think that may be more Russian interference than a real movement to join Russia.
The Security agencies still are divided as to the best way to handle this situation. France and Germany, as of when the article was published, want to negotiate. Italy is on the sidelines. And the other agencies are pushing for a stronger military presence. Although, Putain has said he will use nuclear weapons if there is any military intervention. That means, the better way to act militarily is through deniable forces ("contractors" and "retired military") and supplies. Ukraine has the resistance already, and the resistance during World War II stole weapons from the Germans. The modern resistance is purported to have captured a Russian Thermobaric missile launcher.
I would add that Russian conscript soldiers are mutinying, which is what happens in that army. The Ukrainians are welcoming them as prisoners of war.
Sadly, the Ukrainians are once again being treated like the Kurds, who get hero status when it is politically expedient for the West. There were measures which could have been taken long ago to have ensured that Russia would not have had the resources to wage this war: one of which is energy independence. Sadly, neither of the two US parties was willing to work on changing its addiction to Oil. I think that will also change in the EU.
Putain has already lost this since the attack on Ukraine will ensure that Ukraine and other countries will want to be allied with NATO and the European Union. The real fear is that Putain has shown he is a madman who is willing to start World War III. How do we prevent this from becoming a nuclear nightmare?
Garry Kasparov, a former world chess champion and prominent opponent to the Russian president's regime, said in an interview with Israel Hayom that "the war in Ukraine could put an end to Putin's 'Napoleonic plans.'"
"If Putin does not succeed in the coming days in achieving his military goals - a scorching loss awaits him, and a significant geopolitical loss is always a necessary element in the fall of tyrants," Kasparov said. "Once the regime looks weak in the eyes of its subjects, its end appears on the horizon. If the Ukrainians hold on for a few more days, and the sanctions ring tightens, and if the West does not shy away, it could be the beginning of the end for the Putin regime. On the other hand, in order to prevent a loss, Putin is liable to throw all his strength into the campaign against Ukraine, without restraint." https://www.israelnationalnews.com/flashes/569241
See also:
- Boss of Ukraine's largest energy firm tells world to stop buying gas and oil from Russia
- Ros Atkins on...Russian gas and oil
- Gary Kasparov Blasts Biden on Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Putin Senses ‘American Weakness’
- EXCLUSIVE: Voice message reveals Russian military unit’s catastrophic losses in Ukraine
- https://kyivindependent.com/author/illia-ponomarenko/
- https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko
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