According to the people on the ground, it means the Russians are stalled. There are still strikes, but there isn't significant action for the most part. The Russians are holding what little territory they have.
So, let's talk about the numbers. Because I will admit that they sound very optimistic:
The numbers do sound very inflated given that Ukraine's army is pretty small, while Russia's is large and well funded. The Official Ukrainian statement on this (translated from the Telegram post to the left):
Operational Armed Forces During the fighting on the territory of Ukraine, the enemy army lost more than 30% of its composition. This was stated by Adviser to the Head of the President's Office Oleksiy Arestovych on the UA Together TV Marathon. "They are dying, hundreds are dying. Near Mariupol, exactly 250 people were killed and more than 700 were injured. Losses are definitely growing, about 500-1000 every day, but it is difficult to calculate. There are 14,000 to 15,000 for sure, but more than 12,000 are cautious, ”Arestovych said.According to the Ukrainians, those numbers are conservative!
The fact that Russian positions are fairly stagnant, instead of the predicted blitzkrieg, pretty much underlines that.
I know a lot of Ukrainians would like to see a no fly zone created over Ukraine. The reality is that Ukrainian air defences are good, not great, at protecting against most airstrikes. NATO doesn't need to provide aircraft. It just needs to make sure Ukrainians are supplied with airdefence weapons to continue.
Yes, the Ukrainians are keeping up the OUN-UPA tradition of using captured enemy equipment, but there is the issue with the condition of the captured equipment. The Ukrainians are using what is servicable.
The Russians are hurting, but the war will not end until Putain, or his succesor, surrenders with the terms that the Ukrainians will remain free and independent. Additionally, the Russians are going to have to pay for their war.
The armistice will not go well for Russia.
I also have a feeling that the West, and China, will probably demand that Russia demilitarises. I hope that this isn't done in the same manner that German was disarmed after the 14-18 war.
The bottom line, there isn't peace in Ukraine. Putain is in a very bad position, which is a scary proposition since he is indeed the madman with WMD. I wish NATO would come to Ukraine's aid to end this quickly, but the reality is Ukraine is on its own.
A good article on one of Russia's mistakes in starting this War.
https://ukraineworld.org/articles/ukraine-explained/putin-misread-ukraine
See also:
No comments:
Post a Comment