A Penigma - a mystery, under a pseudonym: Ukraine War

Showing posts with label Ukraine War. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Six common mistakes foreign journalists covering Russian invasion of Ukraine make

My note: I mention that I get my info direct from the sources. Well, they aren't really happy with how this war is being covered. And I agree with what they say here, so. This is the complete piece from the New Voice of Ukraine, posted with permission:

https://english.nv.ua/nation/six-common-mistakes-foreign-journalists-covering-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-make-50227712.html

NV is publishing an open letter to the foreign media covering Russian invasion of Ukraine from Ukrainian media organizations, reporters, photographers, media managers and communication professionals

Dear colleagues,

On February 24 2022, Russia began an unprovoked full scale invasion of Ukraine, a massive escalation of their eight-year war in Donbas in east Ukraine. Russia’s war is conducted along four axes, attacking all major Ukrainian cities with missiles, air strikes and in most instances, ground forces. Untold numbers of civilians and servicemen have been killed. In just over three weeks, more than three million Ukrainians have become refugees in Europe. Four members of the media community have been killed by Russian forces: Oleksandra Kuvshynova, Brent Renaud, Evgen Sakun and Pierre Zakrzewski.

Russian forces kidnap Ukrainian journalists in order to silence them, thus a Ukrainian journalist Viktoriya Roschina and Oleh Baturin spent 6 and 8 days in captivity after disappearing. Ukrainian photojournalist Maks Levin disappeared on March 13th while reporting from the frontline near Kyiv. A publisher from Melitopol Mikhail Kumok and three journalists - Yevgeniya Boryan, Yuliya Olkhovska and Lyubov Chaika - has been also detained for 1 day and have been pressured to collaborate with Russian occupational regime in their city.

Simultaneously Russia has been attacking our core values of truthful, fact-driven and honest reporting through continuous disinformation campaigns. Many people are not aware of the scale and depth of these campaigns, and their full impact is yet to be felt.

Saturday, March 19, 2022

Russia, Ukraine, but no gates.

OK, here's the Great Gate of Kyiv by Modest Mussorgsky:

That was not exactly a true statement, but it has nothing to do with US politics and more to do with Ukrainian Culture. In this case, the Great Gate of Kyiv.

Actually, The Golden Gate of Kyiv (Ukrainian: Золоті ворота, Zoloti vorota),which was the main gate in the 11th century fortifications of Kyiv, the capital of Kievan Rus'. It was named in imitation of the Golden Gate of Constantinople. The structure was dismantled in the Middle Ages, leaving few vestiges of its existence. It was rebuilt completely by the Soviet authorities in 1982, though no images of the original gates have survived. The decision has been immensely controversial because there were many competing reconstructions of what the original gate might have looked like.

So, we now have Kyivgate.

The amusing thing is that this was the theme song for the tv show, The New Statesman. Other silly cultural appropriation is the Mouret Fanfare used as the theme for Masterpiece Theatre. Mouret was a court composer for Louis XIV!

More pics of the great gate here: https://funart.pro/2439-zolotye-vorota-vorota-ukraina-21-foto.html

And https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Gate%2C_Kyiv for more info on this gate.

OK, I'm not sure if I should revisit my comment about the Second Amendment & UA, or something else.

I can do both actually.

The Second Amendment fallacy still applies. The Ukrainians were and are much better armed than I had expected at the start of this war. They did have the proper defence systems to counter the Orc (Russian) attack. Additionally, the Ukrainian forces followed historic trends and either captured or destroyed enemy equipment.

But, they didn't just have small arms to defend the nation. Otherwise, this would be a vastly different and scarier war for the West. Russian intentions do not stop at Ukraine's borders. Sadly, people in the West were far too willing to appease Putin while pretending not to. Political theatre at its worst.

My transition: A friend's brother was killed in the war. I don't know about my relations who are fighting. I hope they are doing well. I am not certain of the numbers, but I know that Ukraine is doing much better than Russia.

The something else: too many people outside of Ukraine don't understand they are a different country. I understand it because I understand the cultural nuaces that make nations different from each other. Also, I have relations who will tell you in no uncertain terms what your misconceptions are.

I made a statement that Ukraine was flat to a Ukrainian cousin when I was younger. She pulled out a topographic map to show me that the West was in the Carpathian mountains. Likewise, they will point out that Ukrainian culture isn't at all like Russian culture. You would think that Americans would understand that.

But the something else I want to mention is that quite a few people outside Ukraine are parroting the Russian line that Ukraine is somehow "part of Russia".

Not at all.

That is historical and cultural ignorance based on superficial knowledge. Unfortunately, I find that ignorance is endemic in the West, particularly in the US. I was unaware that there was a Bipartisan Congressional Ukraine Caucus in the US legislature and has been since 1997. I would think that caucus would be much more vocal about the issues in this war.

Additionally, there are a lot of people who have relatives who were DPs post-WWII. I am amazed they are not more vocal about what is going on. Perhaps because most of those people are "boomers" or their parents.

People need to understand that the West allowing Russia of occupy Crimea was only the start. The War in Ukraine is only a stepping stone to a war that will soon come to the West.

Thursday, March 17, 2022

Spotting Russian fakes of Ukrainian documents

It's actually really easy, but you need to speak Ukrainian, or Russian. And some Ukrainians speak both.

On the other hand, Official Ukrainian documents are in Ukrainian since that is the official language. A simple example will give you an idea of the difference. This is "you are welcome". The phrase on the top is Ukrainian and the bottom is Russian.

Нема за що! (Nema za shcho!)

Не за что! (Ne za chto!)

Now, one way that people who have shown that the documents saying there are Biolabs are fake is that the documents produced to demonstrate that are in Russian. The difference is like that between Swedish and Danish: someone who isn't familiar will not notice too much of a difference. But someone who knows the languages will spot them immediately.[1]

Also, machine translators will "burp" if you can get a transcription of the document and try and translate it in the wrong language. Parts will be total jibberish if it isn't translated correctly. Here are some examples:

As I have mentioned in a couple of posts: Ukrainian is closer to Polish than Russian. The major difference between Polish and Ukrainian is the alphabet. Russian is different from Ukrainian.

So, yeah, I believe someone when they tell me the documents are fake: especially when the ones they show me are written in Russian!

And people in the US think these clowns could mess up their elections.

паляниця, і до побачення ! [2]

Footnotes:
[1] I know this from watching Nordic Noir.

[2] Don't tell me I don't know what I am talking about if you don't understand this.

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Do we really want to gamble that Putain won't use nuclear weapons?

Gary Kasperov has a tweet where he argues like a chess player about this situation. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1503819568879394822

A chess player isn't who I would listen to in this situation. I would want the opinion of a high stakes poker player. Especially since Putain should have folded long ago.

Chess is logical. It has rules and defined moves. It's hard to cheat in Chess.

Unless someone overturns the chess board.

Poker is a different thing. Bluffing and cheating are commonplace. Toss in the pieces aren't sitting on a board.

One can argue that war is like chess. Ok, it's a game of strategy in the battlefield, but there is a whole lot more involved than just fighting battles. There are politics, diplomacy, weather, logistics, intelligence, and a whole lot more to consider.

The Baedeker raids happened despite British Intelligence knowing they would occur because they didn't want to give up Enigma. Generals and leaders make decisions that cost lives.

Sure, Putain's Generals MIGHT not follow the order to fire a nuclear weapon, but we have seen that the Russian soldiers are going into a losing battle. Assume also that some of them knew of FSB's advice not to invade Ukraine and you see where this is going.

Another consideration: where would Putain use a nuclear weapon? He's already destroyed a couple of cities: Mariupol and Volnovakha. He's destroying the people he claims to be saving. The reality is that this action is more retribution toward a wayward people than anything else.

So, a first strike could be on a Ukrainian city. The same way Nuclear Weapons were used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The reasoning behind those cities being destroyed was to save lives. Russian forces are being crushed by Ukrainian forces.

I've learned that one cannot reason with unreasonable people. Unreasonable means not logical and they don't follow rules. Putain is crazy and has shown that by starting this war against the advice of the FSB. Still, the Generals and troops still invade against the FSB recommendation.

Loyal people do stupid things. And someone who is loyal enough will indeed launch a weapon. It's also a whole lot easier to set off a nuclear weapon than most people would like to think. Not many people know about Black Saturday, 27 Oct 1962, Cuban Missile crisis.

The USS Randolph had detected the Soviet submarine B-59 near Cuba. The destroyer, USS Cony [DD-508] was sent to investigate. Following standard procedure for the Navy during those cold war encounters, the destroyer dropped small, practice depth charges such as those used in training. Those held small amounts of explosives and were not designed to cause damage. The purpose of the small depth charges was to force the diesel submarine to the surface for positive identification. However, B-59 had been submerged for some time with its air conditioning system out and with no source of fresh air. The captain and the crew were exhausted and suffering from oxygen deprivation. There had been no radio contact with Moscow since they submerged and they did not know if war had started. With the submarine’s condition bad and deteriorating, the commander, Captain Valentin Savitsky, ordered his crew to arm its nuclear torpedo and get ready to launch it at the Cony.

Fortunately, things turned out well, during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Although, the example of a Submarine armed with nuclear weapons is one of Nigel Calder's nuclear nightmares. As I said, it's a lot easier to set off a nuclear weapon than most people want to believe.

Nuclear weapons are no longer the size of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The "suitcase nuke" is not just something from Frederick Forsyth's Fourth Protocol. They are part of the family called tactical nuclear weapons, which are a part of the Russian nuclear arsenal. They are small enough they can be delivered by artillery shell.

Is having a Ukrainian city destroyed by a nuclear weapon a gamble someone wants to take?

Monday, March 14, 2022

Uh Oh! People in the US should be careful talking about WMD and Chemical Weapons

I just received something from the Arms Control Association telling me about United States stockpiles of chemical weapons:

When the United States ratified the CWC on April 25th, 1997, it accepted the treaty mandate to eliminate its chemical weapons stockpile and related facilities completely and verifiably by April 29, 2007, with the possibility of a five-year extension until 2012.

But both the 2007 and 2012 deadlines proved to be severe underestimates of the time and effort needed to safely demilitarize all nine declared U.S. chemical weapons stockpiles. The United States requested and received two additional deadline extensions from the international chemical weapons watchdog, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

Now, the United States is pushing hard to finish destroying the last vestiges of its once-massive Cold War-era chemical weapons stockpile by Sept. 30, 2023.

You can read this report here: https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2022-03/final-push-us-chemical-weapons-demilitarization

People in the US might want to start worrying.

Wait until the US Gun Nuts see this....

An open top BMW 6 series with a NSV 12,7x108 heavy machine gun mounted - is not something you see everyday.

From the Ukraine Weapons Tracker https://twitter.com/UAWeapons

Sunday, March 13, 2022

Ukrainian biolabs and NeoNazis

Oh, man! Where to start here?

First off, I wonder why people talking about this stuff don't mention Chernobyl. In fact, it might be worth a refresher given that these two other issues are somehow filling the 'net.

The Chernobyl disaster was a nuclear accident that occurred on 26 April 1986 at the No. 4 reactor in the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, near the city of Pripyat in the north of the Ukrainian SSR in the Soviet Union. It is considered the worst nuclear disaster in history both in cost and casualties.

Chernobyl is sitting firmly in Russian controlled territory as is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station. The latter is the largest reactor in Europe, and 10th largest in the world. IAEA is unable to monitor these reactors.

Official UA Gov't statement

Ask a Ukrainian about the biolabs or NeoNazis and they will tell you that the reactors are far more problematic. Fortunately:

"Ukrainian energy workers, by risking their own health and lives, were able to avert the risk of a possible nuclear catastrophe that threatened the whole Europe," https://t.me/energoatom_ua/3001

As for bio-labs: Victoria Nuland is yet another example of Biden administration incompetence. Read her bio, especially her comments about the European Union in 2014, and one has to wonder HOW she ever got her current position. My outspokeness is one reason I am not in either politics or diplomacy. At least I know my weaknesses.

There is a good commentary about Biolabs by Dr. Robert Malone here:

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/03/12/ukraine-biolab-watchtower/

Anything I say would come from that, except I will quote him:

What a mess. Are there any grownups in the house? This is what happens in a world in which no one trusts anyone anymore, integrity is treated as an obsolete concept, both information and legacy media have become weaponized to such an extent that what passes for official reality becomes just a funhouse hall of mirrors, and the experience, intellect and maturity of those entrusted to manage these matters is just not up to the task.

That pretty much sums up the situation of bio-labs since anyone with a speck of knowledge of this issue can tell you that while you may want to think the worst, this is indeed a lot more innocent than you want it to be.

So, you want to trust the Russians who actually possess WMDs that the Ukrainians are doing "biological research" because the US government lied about Saddam Hussein having WMD?

Yeah, right.

My advice: steer clear of living near any research university with a medical facility.

Neo-Nazis get much more interesting, especially for me.

Amusing how Ukraine's defence has become an issue in US politics, especially that part, since as I posted about this issue during the Trump Impeachment relating to Ukraine. Trump Derangement Syndrome blinded people to this issue then (no discussion, or it was like Hunter's laptop). Somehow, it becomes an issue when the issue is funding Ukraine's defence in wartime.

Official Statement from Azov Brigade

And it's why I get pissed when people want to bring US Partisan politics up now.

Just shut the fuck up and do something significant to help Ukraine.

Anyway, yes, those troops existed. Not sure what their status is now since they could have been killed off early in the fighting. As I said in my earlier posts, these Neo-Nazi units were among the ones fighting in the Donbass. That means they would have been on the front when the Russians rolled into that area. I know that one of their leaders was killed long ago. They like to believe that they are keeping up the ideology of Stepan Bandera.

One of the issues with Stepan Bandera is that he has been dead for 62 years. His direct descendants live in Canada. He has become a myth in Ukrainian society.

Translation difficulties: RU is "Azov Base"

As I said in my other Stepan Bandera posts, he did not support racism the way some people claiming to follow his ideology do:

HOPPE: Would you be so kind, Mr. BANDERA, as to explain in detail the conception “Ukrainian nationalism”?

BANDERA: Today the anti-Bolshevik liberation fight in Ukraine is organized and led by OUN, the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists. The conceptions “Ukrainian nationalist,” “nationalistic movement,” differ from similar terms used in the West. The Ukrainian nationalistic movement has nothing in common with Nazism, fascism or national-socialism. Ukrainian nationalism is fighting against totalitarianism, racism, dictatorship and violence of any kind.

Source: https://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/12/from-cia-archives-stepan-banderas-1954-interview-to-german-radio/

And the Bandera clan has Poles and Jews in it as well. And it had them back when he was alive. So....

The neo-Nazi, pseudonationalist organisations have nothing in common with what the OUN-UPA stood for, or Stepan Bandera and his followers were fighting for. I've listed resources for this in other posts.

I would add that the far right groups are not a large segment in Ukrainian politics, and they will most likely become even less of one after the war. https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/.premium-the-far-right-just-got-humiliated-in-ukraine-s-election-but-don-t-write-it-off-1.7563138

The OUN-UPA has more in common with the current War in Ukraine. Ukrainians of other nationalities fought in the UPA ranks, including Georgians, Azerbaijanis, Tatars, Belgians, Russians, and others. Likewise, Ukrainians of all ethnicities are once again fighting to keep their homeland free from being overwhelmed by the Russian Empire.

Bottom line, if you aren't more concerned that two large nuclear reactors are in the hands of the Russians and not being monitored by international authorities, then I really can't persuade you of very much. That is the real issue, not biolabs or neo-nazis.

No Vladimir Putain is not sane.

Once again, I wake up to see that the Ukraine war is not over, but it's spreading.

That's bad news for Russia. Especially since the rest of the world sees that Russia is losing badly. Unfortunately, Ukraine is also being destroyed in the process. It will cost quite a bit to rebuild Ukraine when all this is over.

The Russian economy is collapsing due to economic isolation from the west. It has significant gold reserves, but can't sell gold for a bunch of reasons. The current sanctions target money inside Russias’s foreign exchange reserves. But those holdings in EUR and USD are frozen. And for the people who think gold and currency based money are a good thing. Well, the gold market is simply not very liquid. Never in history did the aggregated sales of all central banks (CBs) exceed 400 tons in a year. And when that happened, gold market participants were already accusing CBs of “market manipulation”. Gold only has value, if “gold whales” (i.e., the central banks) aren’t selling it.

While Russia has 2000t of gold. There is just absolutely no way Russia could sell more than 5-10% of its gold reserves within like a month. If Russia was starting to sell, prices would plummet, as there is simply very little market depth in the gold market. Compare that to FIAT currency which is backed by a solvent central bank.

Case in point, the US Treasury bond (UST) market has basically infinite market depth, which was proven in March 2020. If the value of USTs falls below future cash flows become discounted, the Fed will step in. See: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499339625671938052.html

Aside: And cryptocurrency: who is backing that? Seriously, you're fucked if someone starts dumping cryptocurrency since it isn't backed by much of anything other than the "block-chain".

The bottom line is that this war hasn't been working to Putain's plan: militarily or economically. The longer he holds out, the worse the outcome for both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is physically ruined and Russia is economically ruined. While Ukraine can rebuild, it won't be too long before Russia collapses...Again.

A Chinese observer gives a good reason for stronger involvement from the West:

The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia’s military power is no match for NATO’s, would be even worse for Putin.

The hope is that Putain is rational, but the current situation demonstrates he is not. I know that at least Lithuania is on an alert status. I would also guess that Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania are as well. Those countries are NATO members and an attack on them would trigger NATO involvement.

The longer this lasts, the worse the outcome for everyone--worldwide.

One more comment (adding). Kyiv Independent reports:

⚡️Defense Ministry: Number of Russian casualties hasn't changed for days due to slower offensive.

The official data showing over 12,000 Russian troops killed hasn’t change since March 8 because of decreased confrontation, according to Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 13, 2022

Sources and Other interesting reading:

Saturday, March 12, 2022

When will the Russians give up?????

I keep hoping I will hear that the Russians have announced their surrender when I listen to the news (Ukraine and Moscow are 3 hours ahead of UTC). Sadly, I think Francis Fukuyama is mostly correct in his predictions in Heading for Defeat [1]:
Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

Also, Mark Hertling has some good observations on twitter as well.

I said it yesterday on @cnn, I'll say it again today.

Having worked w/ UKR's army, I expected them to be very good. And they have been better than I expected.

Having seen Russian forces in training & exercises, I expected them to be bad. They are worse than I expected. 1/10
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) March 12, 2022

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502667856772747266.html

Even though this article is titled as being to the left, it applies to the right as well.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/a-letter-to-the-western-left-from-kyiv/

The Western Democracies and Russia signed agreements to ensure Ukraine's neutrality. They are failing miserably in keeping their word as Ukraine is falling. Point 5 in the Fukuyama piece is the most useful:

It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.

So, you can support Ukraine without pushing for "direct involvement". Give Ukraine the supplies to fight this war.

Footnote:

[1] I disagree with his assessment of Biden's MiG decision. US publicly promised MiGs then went back on that promise. That was a very bad move. The US isn't making a very good show of saving the world. The US appears slightly less competent than Russians in how they are handling this matter.

Friday, March 11, 2022

Here's a woman politician with an assault rifle I can get behind!

Nope, she's not from the States, but I bet that headline got your attention. She's Kira Rudik: She's a businesswoman who has worked in the US. Now, she is a member of the Ukrainian Parliament since 2019 and Current leader of the Голос (Holos) Political Party. Голос has a dual meaning of either "Voice" or "Vote":

It has two meanings, and both are very important to us. <...> Because Voice is their [the voters'] voice, by which they demonstrate a desire for change, it is their voice of change. On the other hand, it is their vote, that they can cast [in elections]. <...> The voice, in fact, characterizes Ukrainian voters and their desire for change. What else, if not the voice?

This is a party I can really stand behind.

I might have a lot of qualms if she were in the States, but she's in Ukraine and she will defend he country with her life. She has made it clear that her reason for bearing arms is to defend Ukraine.

Hence the assault rifle.

She may not be the leader, but she is as strong a voice as Volodomyr Zalenski.

Are we concerned with the #chemical attack as #Biden said?

Well, I am more concerned that #Russian forces are bombarding nuclear plant and turned off Chernobyl cooling system off the electrical grid.@CNN pic.twitter.com/WSq5fayBKA
— Kira Rudik (@kiraincongress) March 11, 2022

She's somebody that is very persuasive for the Ukrainian cause and seen on US and other western media. I haven't been able to interview her, but she is one of many sources I follow on Twitter for news about the Ukraine War.

I haven't met her in person yet, but I hope to someday. I hope that we can work together to rebuild Ukraine and get it firmly in the European Union.

I hope she can inspire support for Ukraine and its freedom in the United States. After all, this is a woman who gets the Second Amendment.

🇺🇦Слава Україні!
💪Разом до перемоги!

Remind me the reason for one of Trump's impeachments?

Wasn't it withholding defence funds based upon a "quid pro quo"? Something which was denied by Volodomyr Zalensky:

He said military aid to Ukraine was blocked before the phone call but said “our calls were not linked to Burisma or military aid” and said no conditions were attached to meeting Trump.
“I don’t want to interfere in U.S. elections,” Zelensky also said Thursday. He also said Ukraine was waiting for an official visit to the U.S.

I'm not sure how Mr. Zalensky feels about this past event, but I can tell you that he's pretty upset that Biden torpedoed the promised aid. Ukraine needs all the help it can get to create a No Fly Zone.

But Ukrainians have fought before without a lot of outside help. They are doing it again. Still, it would be nice if Ukraine were supplied with the necessary arms to defend the skies.

NATO doesn't need to do a lot of work. Just get the weapons to a place where Ukrainians can collect them. I would like to think that the technical know how to cloak these shipments exists. Especially after watching Russian radio commication being blocked by the Ukrainians using low tech methods.

I don't like the duopoly, but I really dislike when the duopoly tries to pretend they have the moral high ground.

Neither party does.

It's time for the US to get a new line up politically.

Thursday, March 10, 2022

The Ukraine Detail Nobody’s Talking About

I love this guy.

The Guardian has been printing negative press about Biden since before the election. I've been mentioning them as well. Here goes--more stories from the Guardian about Biden:

So, how did two politicians with no support manage to win the election?

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