Eliot Cohen on Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

Neat article in the Atlantic on why the West is in denial about what is happening in Ukraine. I have to admit feeling pretty smug right now: even if I was slightly pessimistic at the start. I was expecting this to be an asymmetic war par excellence. Instead, it is turning out to be a slaughter of the Russian military. I can't say I am that surprised since my first opinion was based on Ukrainian forces being outgunned. Ukraine's military was in much better shape to fight this than I originally guessed.

But that sort of goes to the crux of this article. Most everyone focused on Russia. Not many people knew about Ukraine.

At the same time, there are few analysts of the Ukrainian military—a rather more esoteric specialty—and thus the West has tended to ignore the progress Ukraine has made since 2014, thanks to hard-won experience and extensive training by the United States, Great Britain, and Canada. The Ukrainian military has proved not only motivated and well led but also tactically skilled, integrating light infantry with anti-tank weapons, drones, and artillery fire to repeatedly defeat much larger Russian military formations. The Ukrainians are not merely defending their strong points in urban areas but maneuvering from and between them, following the Clausewitzian dictum that the best defense is a shield of well-directed blows.

It has been said that wars create stories. Ukrainian kids grew up with the stories of the OUN-UPA (Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalist-Ukrainian Patriotic Army) and how they fought both sides in the Second World War. They knew about how the UPA would steal equipment from the Nazis or the Soviets. People in the west heard Soviet propaganda on the "Banderists". Ukrainian people, especially those in the diaspora, knew the truth of what exactly the OUN-UPA was. As I said, I was expecting a guerilla war, but I didn't know the strength of the Ukrainian military. Misjudging that strength was a fault in the analysis: especially that of the Russian invaders:

The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven. The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv are suggestive. Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead, depending on your source, which implies (using a low-end rule of thumb about the ratios of such things) a minimum of nearly 30,000 taken off the battlefield by wounds, capture, or disappearance. Such a total would represent at least 15 percent of the entire invading force, enough to render most units combat ineffective. And there is no reason to think that the rate of loss is abating—in fact, Western intelligence agencies are briefing unsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day.

So, no, those numbers of Russian losses aren't high: they may indeed be conservative. As Prof. Cohen points out, Russian blunders are apparent to even novices. 

I also have to agree with his conclusion:

The Ukrainians are doing their part. Now is the time to arm them on the scale and with the urgency needed, as in some cases we are already doing. We must throttle the Russian economy, increasing pressure on a Russian elite that does not, by and large, buy into Vladimir Putin’s bizarre ideology of “passionarity” and paranoid Great Russian nationalism. We must mobilize official and unofficial agencies to penetrate the information cocoon in which Putin’s government is attempting to insulate the Russian people from the news that thousands of their young men will come home maimed, or in coffins, or not at all from a stupid and badly fought war of aggression against a nation that will now hate them forever. We should begin making arrangements for war-crimes trials, and begin naming defendants, as we should have done during World War II. Above all, we must announce that there will be a Marshall Plan to rebuild the Ukrainian economy, for nothing will boost their confidence like the knowledge that we believe in their victory and intend to help create a future worth having for a people willing to fight so resolutely for its freedom.

World War III started the moment Putain threatened to use nuclear weapons. This war must result in nuclear disarmament or any crazy can do what they will.

This war is and can be fought without having to lob nuclear weapons. But the maniacs threating to do that need to be soundly defeated.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

The War in Ukraine: Let's do the numbers!

OK, The title clues you in that the Russians still haven't given up. This is despite their being walloped both militarily and economically. I diverge from a lot of Ukrainians in that I think a lot of Russians are against this war, but it's hard to make your voice heard in a totalitarian state.

That said: Let's discuss the numbers.

My belief in the credibility of Ukraine's numbers for Russian losses are not coloured by my attitude toward toward Ukraine. I make it pretty clear that I am the LEAST Ukrainian of my family members. On the other hand, I do feel for the country and my family members there. So...

I thought they were pretty inflated early on, but the Russians talking about peace early in the game is a big hint that those numbers might be correct. If asked early in the war, I would have predicted that the Russians would have been able to make a foothold in the East to about the Dnipro River in the south up to Dnipro (city) and then a line northward to Kharkiv. The fighting would have been heaviest in that area. There would also be action in Kyiv.

The reality is that the Russians are basically holding close to the Russia-Ukraine border and they don't even hold that much of the territory there. Kyiv is hit by sporadic artillery and missile fire. The Russians are keeping their distance from Ukrainian territory with the exception of a few cities.

I know that the equipment losses are verified by Western intelligence agencies using satellites. But most of those numbers are released days after the numbers from the Ukrainian defence forces. There are independent groups that verify the losses on both sides as well.

[EDIT]And I forgot to add that I mentioned the leaked report by the FSB member early in the war that said:

A report thought to be by an analyst in the FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, said that the Russian dead could already number 10,000. The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged the deaths of only 498 of its soldiers in Ukraine.[EDIT]

There are a lot of reasons that Russia is getting pounded heavily by Ukraine. Ukraine 2022 is not Poland 1939, but that doesn't mean people outside Ukraine should take this war lightly.

Putain would not have launched this if he didn't feel that the West would once again do nothing about Russia's imperialist ambitions. Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, says "the degree of progress falls short of what we would like and how the dynamic of developments demands of the Ukrainian side" – meaning Russia's ongoing assault on its cities.

OK, Ukraine can hold out until it has destroyed Russia's military. And that time is coming soon.

I find it funny that some of the people who like Red Dawn are cheering the Russian forces in Ukraine. It's amazing they are too ignorant to see what exactly they are doing. Same team: different colours. Putain is still a KGB agent.

"News" on the War in Ukraine

I can't believe that anyone vaguely intelligent parrots that Ukraine is somehow part of Russia: especially since most of the fighting in this war has been in the Donbas region of Ukraine (the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, collectively called the Donbas). Or Why this might get confusing: Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR, respectively) are home to armed Russian-backed separatist groups of ETHNIC RUSSIANS!!!!

These areas may have been somewhat pro-Russian at one time, but they are resisting the Russian invasion. Additionally, they are the ones being hit hardest with fighting.  So, why are the Russians killing other Russians: especially the ones the Russians are alleging they were protecting by starting this war?

Fortunately, the Russians are getting clobbered big time by the Ukrainian army. From Michael Kofman:

Depreciating combat effectiveness sets the stage for either a significant operational pause along most fronts or a ceasefire. This does not necessarily imply a political settlement, but a period to reorganize, consolidate, and resupply. An end to the first chapter of this war.  I think Moscow is searching for something it can use to declare a victory. Taking the Donbas, and having leverage to attain concessions from Kyiv is probably what they're looking to accomplish at this point. This is at best a guess.

He's not very optimistic about what may come next: If there is another phase, Russian forces will probably try to compensate for poor performance by inflicting greater destruction.

At this point, Russia hasn't used nuclear or chemical weapons. The scary part is wondering how crazy Putain happens to be and will he use those weapons?

And for the people wondering about World War III.

It's already here. 

The real question is how much longer will people pretend to be neutral in this War?

The New American Century has arrived, and it's not going to plan.

You can guess that Russia has not surrendered by the title of this post. In fact, the positions have been pretty much stalled since the first day of the war. That leaves me with "housekeeping" tasks: such as educating people in the West about the situation.

First off, The myth of Russian military might has been blown to bits. I'm not exactly sure what to say about their intelligence capability (that is information gathering, instead of national IQ). Rumours are that the FSB advised against this, but Putain crashed ahead betting his political capital on this...and losing the bet badly. The FSB remain powerless to stop the madness.

The fact that Russia hit the negotiating table early on is the biggest hint that the war is indeed going badly. The amusing part is that Russia thinks it can get concessions from Ukraine. The longer this drags on the less likely that is to happen. In fact, Ukrainians are more likely to expect a treaty with conditions that make what Germany received in the Treaty of Versailles look generous.

The fact that Ukraine has been the protector of the free world pretty much on its own hasn't been lost anywhere other than the US and Russia.

I am amazed at people in the US who spout Russian propaganda (See https://youtu.be/qZPK4tZi21E). 

First off, Ukraine is not part of Russia. It was part of the Soviet Union, but it was never really part of Russia. The territory of contemporary Ukraine used to belong to several empires or states, so some versions of Ukrainian identity do not even have anything to do with Russia at all. A short and simplified history:

In the early 1600s, Ukraine was a group of provinces under the control of Poland. Religious friction was inevitable: Poland was primarily Catholic, while the people in the region of Ukraine were primarily Orthodox. In 1648, a revolt led by the Ukrainian Cossacks broke part of the Ukrainian lands away from Poland. Until 1654, Ukrainians and Russians lived in two separate states. For almost 400 years, from the 13th to the 17th centuries, they were not in the same political structure and lived under different religious influences.

Resistance to Polish domination came from the Cossacks, a group with historically opaque ethnic origins. In 1654, they allied with Russia to establish a territory under their control, called a Hetmanate; it was an early form of what would become Ukraine, and it included Ukraine’s modern-day capital, Kyiv. Mapmakers of that time labeled Cossack areas as Ukraine.

After 1654, the Poles were less of a concern to the Cossacks, but independence remained a key goal. In 1708, when the Swedish army sought to push the Russians out of Ukraine, Ivan Mazepa, a Cossack leader, joined with the Swedes. The Russians routed their opponents, hobbling an independent Cossack state from that point forward.

Ukraine became a region divided by competing empires. The western provinces, initially under Polish dominion, were later governed by the Austro-Hungarian Empire. By the mid-19th century, the bulk of Ukrainian territory operated under Russian rule. Russian rule was harsh, and a sense of grievance began to foster a Ukrainian national identity.The Ukrainian language had taken shape over centuries. By the 1800s, a standard form had emerged. By the mid-1800s, these writers began to publish Ukrainian primers and expand the teaching of the language in schools.

The breakdown of the Tsarist empire and the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 proved to be a key turning point for Ukraine. Ukraine declared independence in 1918 and maintained that status until 1921. That led to a period where the government in Kyiv changed hands five times in 1919 alone. The Bolsheviks took advantage of the turmoil, focusing their attention on undermining Ukrainian national sentiment.

When the Bolsheviks seized Kyiv in early 1918, they targeted sites that were part of Ukrainian identity. They shelled the Ukrainian museum established by the head of the Ukrainian state, Mykhailo Hrushevsky. People caught speaking Ukrainian on the streets of Kyiv were shot. The independent government in Kyiv had claimed the eastern provinces as part of the new nation, but this spawned its own tensions. Although the Donbas region was majority Ukrainian.

Russians were moved into the territory of Ukraine during the Soviet period. Additionally, ethnic Ukrainians were moved to other parts of Russia during that period.  Also, There was  pressure from the Ukrainian guerilla resistance during the Soviet period. That was the reason the Soviets created a Ukrainian entity under the Soviet Union in 1922. Ukraine had some jurisdiction over its domestic affairs, but foreign policy, defense and commerce were in the hands of Moscow.

The Soviet state under Stalin took on a more centralized and Russian tone after a period in which Ukrainian language and culture were supported in the 1920s. The Stalinist period and beyond was accompanied by greater repression. The longer Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, the more its antagonism toward Russia grew.

Ukrainians have been victimised by both the Soviet Union and Russia. Key events include the famine (or Holodomor) under Stalin that killed perhaps 4 million or more Ukrainians, as well as the 1986 nuclear disaster in Chernobyl (or, to the Ukrainians, Chornobyl), which occurred about 60 miles north of Kyiv. This war is a continuation of that victimisation.

Sorry, there is no love between the people of Ukraine and Russia. That is why the East is resisting the invading Russian forces.  People who repeat the myth that Ukraine is part of Russia are repeating an erroneous transformation of a complex, entangled history between the two countries into a simplistic morality tale that serves Russian interests.

This war is going to have a significant effect on the power structure of the world since it is showing China, Russian, and the US powereless to stop the war. Likewise it is showing that there needs to be a stronger system for stopping armed aggression. This is truly showing that War is indeed NOT the answer. More nations have fallen from their belligerence than most people understand. But this war is showing that unarmed resistance might beat the most powerful armies.

Angry White House Staffer on Russia's failure.

From a twitter thread:
 

Several folks have asked me when Russia is going to deploy their “good troops,” so I feel like I need to offer a brief explainer.

I know it’s hard to believe, but these *are* their good troops.

After three weeks, we’re still seeing the narrative that they’re holding back. 

 

This flat-out isn’t true. We’ve seen VDV (airborne), various troops from the Spetsnaz umbrella, etc.

They’ve also launched over 1,000 missiles into Ukraine.

The only thing they’re holding back (so far) is chemical and nuclear weapons.


They just aren’t very good at this. 

 

Remember, the US had the unfortunate experience of over two decades at war to learn from our mistakes and refine tactics for the modern battlefield.

Russia is learning in blood that integrating air, sea, and ground forces in a single assault isn’t as easy as we make it look. 

There are a lot of reasons why this war is a failure for Russia. The major one, which is one a lot of people miss in the West, is that Ukraine is a very separate nation from Russia. This is true no matter what one's nationality happens to be. This video is a protest in Russian occupied Ivanivka, Kherson region, south Ukraine where local residents held a rally in protest of the Russian occupation of the town.

No, Ukraine is not part of Russia and does not want to be part of Russia. People who love freedom should appreciate this difference.

 

When will the War in Ukraine end?

I'm feeling good that people are pointing out Putain is insane. Sane people do not start wars on peaceful nations for fake reasons and continue those wars when they prove pointless.

OK, I can see why people might miss Putain is nuts.

Anyway, I am now hearing there IS a power struggle in the Kremlin. Although my source hasn't seen any confirmation in the media. Not sure if that no stories in the media mean very much though since there is a lot of information which is missing in the media about the Ukraine War.

So, people keep suffering and dying.

Guess What? There is a war going on!

I have to be amused at the ignorance of most people in regard to this situation. I don't know a lot, but I know a lot more than most of the people making pronouncements in the media. Let's start with the Cato Institute's ignorance of the situation.

First off, there was an agreement made at Budapest in 1994 that Ukraine would give up a rather large stockpile of nuclear weapons in exchange for its neutrality being guaranteed by the US, UK, and Russia. Ukraine's neutrality under this treaty is one of the missing factors in all this.

But even better, the arms sales that probably caused this war weren't to Ukraine. 

Nope, they were to Russia! There has been an Arms Embargo by the European Union since 31 July 2014 (Council Decision 2014/512/CFSP). This decision followed the annexation of Crimea and the proclamation of the Donbas separatist republics. Unfortunately, that document is very easily bypassed.  Official data shows that the arms trade continued with military equipment. From between 2015 and 2020, at least 10 EU member states have exported a total of €346 million worth of arms to Russia.s. France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Finland, Slovakia and Spain.

If anything, arms sales to Ukraine were what kept Russia from taking over. On the other hand, Charles Koch, was one of the founders of Cato. I believe the Koch family makes no secret that they made their money by helping Stalin build his petroleum industry. Then the Kochs went on to promote "right wing causes". Additionally, the Kochs are still doing business with Russia, which makes most of its money selling fossil fuels.

As Ambrose Bierce said ,

“Patriotism, n. Combustible rubbish ready to the torch of any one ambitious to illuminate his name. In Dr. Johnson's famous dictionary patriotism is defined as the last resort of a scoundrel. With all due respect to an enlightened but inferior lexicographer I beg to submit it is the first.”

Of course, all that is a small sample of the pandering to Putain. It's amazing that even though he is publicly called a pariah: there has been a lot of support from the West and western governments.

For those who want to sit on the sideline, they need to realise that Russia will continue its belligerant posturing. People in the Baltic States are aware of this and are also asking for a no fly zone.

I have mixed feelings about a no fly zone. It would be nice. On the other hand, there is the madman with enough nuclear weapons to end the world waging a war on a small country. It is indeed fantasy to think he will stop at Ukraine. it's also a fantasy to think he will not make a first nuclear strike for no reason.

After all, Putain started this war for no reason other than he saw western weakness and appeasement.

So, no. It isn't the West that is pushing former Soviet States to want to join NATO. It's Russian aggression. And it is Ukraine that is fighting on its own to try and remain free. Ukraine is doing a super job since it knows what the alternative is to losing this war.

Some people in the West need to appreciate that. It can make sure Ukraine is supplied to fight for the rest of the world. The West can also make sure that countries like Russia and China are kept from the world economy.

But, there already is a war going on. Are you waiting for it to come to your home?

See also:

• EU member states exported weapons to Russia after the 2014 embargo

RUSSIANS GO FULL RUSSIAGATE--BLAME RUSSIANS FOR FAILURE IN UKRAINE

You think I'm kidding? Here's Mad Vlad going full Hillary Clinton (and her followers) blaming everyone and everything except himself for the mess in Ukraine:

And we finally have proof the dude is indeed a whackjob. It seems he replaced his entire staff of close employees, around 1000 people as well. Neat theory that his paranoia is due to steroid use to keep up his macho figure. That story here:
https://www.insideedition.com/fearing-poisoning-vladimir-putin-replaces-1000-of-his-personal-staff-73847

I guess the upshot is that like Hillary Clinton, Mad Vlad, is not going away soon: no matter how much people might want him to.

Also, I guess he believed his own BS. Here is an old Russian warmongering video on how quickly they can conquer Europe and the world with their army. As comment said: "There was one problem: on the way happened to be the Sumy territorial defence." I'm going to toss in Ukrainian farmers. Seriously, the Russians hit far more resistance then they expected.

One thing that is getting scary is that the Right likes Putain. The theory is that he is a strongman who appeals to their sense of authoritarianism. The result is that we hear a lot of people on the right parroting Russian bullshit. I'm not going to give those people any more publicity than they all ready have by being whackjobs.

Of course, parroting Russian bullshit isn't solely a quality of the right, but fewer people are doing it on the left. But the lefties doing it are really disappointing. I guess that is a by-product of having crappy media: people are getting their news and opinion from comedians. And just about everybody else.

There are a lot of reasons that a large military gets defeated by a smaller one which is another post. But a quick summary from a tweet from the New Voice of Ukraine:

"Russia is losing in Ukraine. Bad tactics, crap equipment, and inexperienced troops suffering low morale fighting in a country which they're quickly realizing is not theirs is a recipe for military disaster."

There is a longer story that goes to the tweet: https://english.nv.ua/opinion/decision-time-for-putin-opinion-50225836.html

As I said, Mad Vlad is blaming everybody and everything except himself for his failures. He's literally blaming the Russian people for this mess!

And people in the US think this guy could subvert their elections! He can't really run his own country, let alone mess up another one: unless he does it by sending his military.

Peace in Ukraine? Russian Aggression stops in Ukraine!

You would imagine that Russia would be ready to call it quits and surrender by now, but...

The International Criminal Court has ruled that:

• "The Court is acutely aware of the extent of the human tragedy that is taking place in Ukraine...The Court is profoundly concerned about the use of force by the Russian Federation in Ukraine, which raises very serious issues of international law," presiding judge Joan Donoghue wrote in the ruling.
• Russia "shall immediately suspend the military operations commenced on 24 February 2022 that have as their stated purpose and objective the prevention and punishment of a claimed genocide in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts of Ukraine," the ruling stated.

That means that in addition to having been beaten militarily, the invasion and subsequent war are illegal according to international law. Of course, this ruling is unenforceable short of a world wide military action on Russia. 

On the other hand, sanctions are doing a great job of crippling the Russian economy. But that hasn't caused the next Russian Revolution. Yet. I am amazed the Military and FSB haven't revolted.

Russia really isn't in a position to bargain for peace, but the Russian government is acting like it holds the upper hand. As I said, these people aren't rational. Putain wants to revive the Russian Empires of old, but he has only crippled the country with his adventurism.

Any peace will have to come with what Łukasz Adamski describes as "Deputinisation" which will be enforced.

Unfortunately, Ukraine is paying for Russian aggression and Western weakness and diplomatic failure. The west could have taken action much earlier, but failed to do so.

OK, I have Ukrainian heritage--of course, I'm concerned.

As I like to say, I'm European if we are going into where my ancestors came from: Pretty much the map of EU members with the exception of Portugal and Spain. So...

A little more of Lesia Vasylenko:

I personally would have thought this would have ended a while back, but the Black Knight analogy is indeed a good one for the Russians.  According to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry 40% of  the Russian units that invaded Ukraine during the past weeks were destroyed or defeated.  Despite that Russia is forming and sending in new Units. The Ukrainians are promising that those units will meet the same fate as the ones before them. 

While the Defence Ministry says "Ukraine is invincible", I am still worried that Putain is a madman. And a cornered one at that.

I had to laugh when I saw the headline in L'Obs asking if "Putain was a dictator?"

Seriously?

Fuck yeah, he is!

I agree with Oleksiy Sorokin who says "Listening to Lavrov talking about “a possible compromise,” after Russia killed what looks like tens of thousands of people, I don’t see Ukraine accepting anything less than Russian withdrawal from Donbas, including Donetsk & Luhansk. There’s no middle ground anymore."

And an unnamed Ukrainian negotiator says, "Ukraine could agree to what Russians call "neutral status" but according to the Ukrainian model. That means legally verified security guarantees: in case of war signatories provide weapons and air defense immediately without bureaucratic procedures or conditions,"

Personally, I think Russia needs to be taught a lesson that its aggression doesn't pay off.

Time to mention yet another Ukrainian woman. This one is Oleksandra Kuvshynova, Her Fox News ID listed her as being a "Producer." According to the people on the ground she was what is called a "Fixer", or a local who helps the News Crews navigate the landscape: especially in dangerous areas.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/ukrainian-journalist-oleksandra-kuvshinova-killed-attack

EDIT Fox News wasn't mentioning that she was killed along with their other correspondent, so I will. Fox News said they delayed announcing her death "out of respect for her family".

Not sure what to say after that other than that I hope Fox News changes their bias on Ukraine prestement.

And you wonder why I want this war to end soon, but I want Russia to pay for the devastation its aggression has caused Ukraine. Russia can't get off easily for this act of aggression against its neutal neighbour.

Just in case you want to know more of what is happening:
https://english.nv.ua/nation/day-21-of-putin-s-war-russians-attack-kyiv-zaporizhzhia-vinnytsia-odesa-shore-50225446.html

And a parting word for those of you who want to believe Russian sources, or just want to see Ukrainian resolve:

Russia is the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail

They are being pounded, yet will not give up.

And the whole thing is stagnating. The plan to take Kyiv in 3 hours backfired bigtime for the Russians. In fact, It is looking increasingly likely, that Ukraine will be able to prevent Russian army in the North, from EVER encircling Kyiv. The battle seems to be lost to Russia.

Russian invasion planners fucked up royally by placing all their fuel trucks in one basket in that 40 mile convoy. Ukraine played it brilliantly, by blocking that convoy before it reached Hostomel.

Not that the Russians being pinned down makes the situation in any way safe or quiet. The Russians still have artillery and missiles that they lob onto the civillian population daily. The cities in the East are occupied, but there is resistance both armed and unarmed by the Ukrainians to the Russian invasion.

Unlike what happened in the Crimea, the Ukrainians have far more cell phones and are documenting the occupation. Not sure to say whether the Ukrainian resistance is high-tech or low-tech. It's a mixture of the two. Whatever the case, the myth of Russian superiority is being trashed daily.

There are a lot of reasons for this, but "Red Dawn" is turning out to be a Cold War fantasy. One of the reasons Hitler and the Nazis could occupy as much of Europe as they did was collaboration in the occupied territories. Unfortunately, they didn't have the technology to document what was going on then.

I think the big take away from this War is that a small group of armed people can disturb the lives of a lot of people for as long as that small group exists.

The only way to get peace in Ukraine is if Russia is defeated and decomposed once and for all. It cannot be allowed to become an Empire of any sort again.

Ukraine War: No news is good news--sort of.

According to the people on the ground, it means the Russians are stalled. There are still strikes, but there isn't significant action for the most part. The Russians are holding what little territory they have. 

So, let's talk about the numbers. Because I will admit that they sound very optimistic:

The numbers do sound very inflated given that Ukraine's army is pretty small, while Russia's is large and well funded. The Official Ukrainian statement on this (translated from the Telegram post to the left):

Operational Armed Forces During the fighting on the territory of Ukraine, the enemy army lost more than 30% of its composition. This was stated by Adviser to the Head of the President's Office Oleksiy Arestovych on the UA Together TV Marathon. "They are dying, hundreds are dying. Near Mariupol, exactly 250 people were killed and more than 700 were injured. Losses are definitely growing, about 500-1000 every day, but it is difficult to calculate. There are 14,000 to 15,000 for sure, but more than 12,000 are cautious, ”Arestovych said.

According to the Ukrainians, those numbers are conservative!

I thought I made a comment that Putain had lost the War the moment he began his invasion.

The fact that Russian positions are fairly stagnant, instead of the predicted blitzkrieg, pretty much underlines that.

I know a lot of Ukrainians would like to see a no fly zone created over Ukraine. The reality is that Ukrainian air defences are good, not great, at protecting against most airstrikes. NATO doesn't need to provide aircraft. It just needs to make sure Ukrainians are supplied with airdefence weapons to continue.

Yes, the Ukrainians are keeping up the OUN-UPA tradition of using captured enemy equipment, but there is the issue with the condition of the captured equipment. The Ukrainians are using what is servicable.

The Russians are hurting, but the war will not end until Putain, or his succesor, surrenders with the terms that the Ukrainians will remain free and independent. Additionally, the Russians are going to have to pay for their war.

The armistice will not go well for Russia.

I also have a feeling that the West, and China, will probably demand that Russia demilitarises. I hope that this isn't done in the same manner that German was disarmed after the 14-18 war.

The bottom line, there isn't peace in Ukraine. Putain is in a very bad position, which is a scary proposition since he is indeed the madman with WMD. I wish NATO would come to Ukraine's aid to end this quickly, but the reality is Ukraine is on its own.

A good article on one of Russia's mistakes in starting this War.

https://ukraineworld.org/articles/ukraine-explained/putin-misread-ukraine

See also:

• Putin's Worsening Problems
• The Threat from the East: Central-Eastern European Voices Finally Heard
  

Waiting for the Russian Surrender in Ukraine is like....

Watching Arthur fighting the Black Knight in Monty Python. Ukraine is Arthur.  Putain and the Russian Army are the Black Knight.

I mentioned the Raspoutitsa in a previous post (Russia WILL lose: the question is how long it will take to admit defeat? Will he?). It amazes me that a Russian would think about launching an attack in the springtime. But Putin's being ex-KGB doesn't mean he's crafty, clever, cunning, etc.: It just means he's a thug who knows violence.

I seriously have to wonder looking at the way the war is going if the Soviet Generals in World War II were all Ukrainian.

Another intercept from #RussianArmy:

- But you guys are alright?
- Wouldn’t say so. Many “200” (dead).
- And why is your commander saying everyone is alright?
- Half of our regiment is gone…#StandWithUkraine #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianUkrainianWar #россиясмотри pic.twitter.com/kxSphPitk3

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 10, 2022

The problem is that the Ukrainian people are taking the hit. Worse, the Ukrainians taking most of the hits are in the East.  That means the Russians are destroying part of the country they are claiming to save. They are literally destroying the village to save it.

I know that creating a No Fly Zone is dangerous since Putain is the insane villain with enough WMD to destroy the world several times over. This isn't Iraq where the accusations of WMD weren't real: Putain's WMD capabilities are well documented. Not to mention, there is documentation of the use of Thermobaric missiles, which are banned by international law.

There are ways to supply the Ukrainians with MANPADS and other SAMS for them to create a No Fly Zone. It's dangerous, but less dangerous than direct intervention to create the NFZ. Still, they can be supplied.

The problem is that the Ukrainian people are suffering from this. There was absolutely no reason for Russia to have invaded Ukraine. US-UK Intel should have shared Putain's intent with the world, or at least have made sure the Ukrainians were much better armed.

Still, the Ukrainian people are showing their will. But I am getting really annoyed that Russia just won't admit defeat.

Would Stepan Bandera be pro-European Union if he were alive today??

 Or if your Nazi uncle really WAS a Nazi. Actually, I do know people with real Nazi relations. I told Bettina Goering that she has both sides of the issue since not only was one relative a high level Nazi (Hermann Goering), but he assisted his brother Albert, who saved Jews. 

Stepan is more nuanced even though he is as maligned/celebrated.

I still wouldn't be a Bandera though. I prefer more inclusive. Which is where things get interesting. 

Stepan was born in Poland. Carpathea/Galacia which is home of the Hasidim as well.

Even though Stepan has closer relatives, I was born near his death: 11-12 days before. I think he knew I was an addition to the family when he was killed by a KGB agent (NEVER say I was influenced by Russians).

The issue is that he was a nationalist. His followers and associates killed those who prevented Ukrainian Statehood. Unfortunately, there is the guilt by association, or family, in all this. Even though I don't share his prejudices. 

I like think I am not prejudiced, but accept people as they are.

He wanted his identity as a Ukrainian. I am pretty certain he would accept you if you accepted him, which is what most people want.

I'm a mutt. So, I accept everyone.

I watch Brexit and see how Northern Ireland holds up the process. The Unionists want to be part of Britain, but when it comes down to things: they ultimately want to be Irish and part of the European Union. The EU was what made the Good Friday Agreement possible: even though nationalists on both sides (Republican and Unionists) hated the EU. 

One of the European Union's purpose is to promote peace. It promotes peace by making artificial borders meaningless. A country can contain multiple ethnicities and linguistic groups. 

I think he would appreciate that Ukrainians are uniting whether they speak Russian, Ukrainian, or any of the other languages/cultures comprised by Ukraine, to fight the Russians.

I have a weird feeling that if being a part of something larger protected Ukrainian identity, Stepan would have been for it as well. In fact, I think being a part of the European Union as something which would promote peace through diversity, he would be so pro-EU it would make me laugh.

Ukrainians could win war?? Ukrainians WILL win this war.

Pretty much everything I've been saying:

Why the War in Ukraine is "Different".

Well, other than a madman with a shitload of nukes is threatening to start World War III.

It's happening in Europe. Not that there hasn't been armed struggle in Europe. After all, the Balkans (Serbia, Kosovo,etc.) have been combat zones. It's that this is a huge struggle with 2 million refugees pushing west, which would be a shitload more if Ukraine were part of the European Union. That would mean the border would have been open releasing a flood of refugees.

Also, there is the unspoken guarantee by the West given when Ukraine received its independence that the West (and Russia) would guarantee that independence.

Quite frankly, Putin is showing that NATO, especially the United States, is weak.

On the other hand, the Russian forces are also pretty ineffective. The Ukrainians are capturing Russian equipment and killing generals. And that's not adding in that the troops are surrendering whenever they can.

I mentioned the leaked report by the FSB member that said:

A report thought to be by an analyst in the FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, said that the Russian dead could already number 10,000. The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged the deaths of only 498 of its soldiers in Ukraine.

The problem is that the enemy (yes, Putain is our enemy whoever you are) believes that defeat is a sign of weakness. That means he isn't giving up until all his troops are dead. Unless someone can come up with a way for him to surrender while saving face.

Unfortunately, he had lost the war before it began.

You don't need to be an expert on Ukraine to know that. You just need to have a passing knowledge of the history and the country to have seen that.

I said that Ukraine would be Biden's downfall. It also appears that it is Putain's. 

I just want it to end soon because it's like the US's "peaceful protests" except it's affecting the entire world.

A brief on some points of Ukrainian History: Ukrainian Patriotic Army, Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, etc.

By this point, people may have seen material from Russian Bots, or at least Soviet Era material about Stepan Bandera, Ukrainian Patriotic Army, Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, and the Kievan Rus. So, let's get started.

The Kievan Rus: Putin is correct in that Kyiv, or Kiev, is the birthplace of the Rus. But he needs to realise that would mean Moscow takes second place to Kyiv if he wants to be that way. He has to realise that he's been beaten by a dude who can play the piano with his penis (Volodymyr Zelensky). That should be really painful for Putain, who likes to boast about his black belt in Judo.  Hey, that shit only works in the dojo anyway.

I should add that Volodymyr Zelensky happens to be Jewish: especially since one of the reasons Russian bots give to not support Ukraine is that there are Nazis and Anti-Semites. But as the tweet shows, there are Jews in the modern Ukrainian resistance. There also were Jewish members in the OUN of Stepan Bandera's day.

Anyway...

I mention the Holodomor a lot: It means "death by hunger".  Stalin and his followers were determined to teach the Ukrainian people “a lesson they would not forget.”  Tens of thousands of Ukraine’s intellectual, spiritual, and cultural leaders were arrested, some subjected to show trials and executed, most sent to prison labor camps, often resulting in death. In June of 1933, at the height of the Holodomor, 28,000 men, women and children in Ukraine were dying of starvation each day.  The land that was known worldwide as the breadbasket of Europe was being ravaged by a man-made famine of unprecedented scale.

Next we get to the Ukrainian resistance during the pre-WWII period and beyond. The unfortunate thing is that there is the reputation for being genocidal, which is one of the reasons for Putain's invasion. The Ukrainian Army has various regiments which strongly idolise Stepan Bandera. I mentioned that Stepan Bandera is the devil incarnate for some people due to his "genocidal" urges. 

But people need to understand that Bandera was an ardent nationalist during a period of ardent nationalism. The rise of nationalism in Europe initiated with the Spring of Nations in 1848. Nationalism calls on people to identify with the interests of their national group and to support the creation of a state to support those interests. Countries like Poland and Ukraine wanted their independence. The 14-18 war started with the assassination of Prince Franz Ferdinand by a Serbian Nationalist. Extreme and violent nationalism was pretty much epidemic as the rise of the National Socialist German Workers Party demonstrated. 

After the war people who collaborated with the enemy were subjected to trials with collaborators being killed. France had its Épuration légale:

The three Épuration periods were: épuration sauvage, épuration légale, and a third phase in which suspected and guilty collaborators were treated with lenience. The first phase, épuration sauvage, produced the most brutal retribution of the three periods. The first phase took place during and immediately after the liberation of Paris on 25 August 1944. The wrath of the partisan French citizens was directed at suspected and well-known collaborators. Many people waited inside their apartments expecting to hear the dreaded knock—similar to the Gestapo and French police tactics during the Occupation. After the arrest, punishments included beatings, interrogation with torture, as well as summary executions (with or without the benefit of a “kangaroo” court). This period of time was essentially one of lawlessness and mob rule. Women suspected of having a German lover were rounded up and most had their heads shaved while some had swastikas carved into their foreheads. A second but shorter phase occurred in May and June of 1945 when the surviving deportees returned home. Newsreels of the concentration camps and the gruesome scenes contributed to another round of épuration sauvage. It was reminiscent of the week-long “September Massacre” (1792) during the French Revolution when the mobs emptied the prisons and killed many of the prisoners.

The wrath of people in occupied nations after WWII is pretty well known and went on for a while. I would also add that there were Nazi collaborators and sympathisers pretty much all over world: even in the US. As one Belgian friend said after we went to an exhibition on Belgian Resistance during WWII: "that's amusing since most Belgians were pro-Nazi..." So, Nazi sympathisers were also pretty common, but how many people get guilt tripped for driving a VW or Ford? Or remember that the US Nazi party had a rally in NYC's Madison Square Garden?

Stepan Bandera was indeed a guest of the Germans: he spent most of the war in Sachsenhausen Kz (or concentration camp). Peter Bandera provided the picture from the Auschwitz Memorial since three members of Stepan Bandera's family were in Concentration Camps. This is from the Ukrainian Crisis Media Centre:

The myth presenting the OUN (Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists) and the UPA (Ukrainian Insurgent Army) as main actors in these acts of violence, was actively exploited by the Soviet and later Russian propaganda to justify the fight that the USSR’s repressive agencies were waging against these organizations. As the myth goes, during World War II the supporters of the nationalist movement were massively killing Jews, Poles, and Russian speakers. It thus gave grounds to the Soviet intelligence and members of the security service to fight against them till the late 1950s under the pretext to not let them “massively kill”. Not only OUN members but also members of the group that had formally nothing to do with the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists were presented as “Ukrainian nationalists” by the Soviet and Russian propaganda

It is not rare to see the statements in today’s Russian media suggesting “mass killings of Jews by followers of Bandera” and that “Bandera was responsible for killings of Jews in western Ukraine”. They also claim that “Nachtigall” and “Roland” (German battalions formed of Ukrainian soldiers, which did not take part in combat actions) were among the main organizers of Holocaust in Ukraine. By mixing up these notions attempts are made to create a logical sequence in the heads of the viewers and readers suggesting that Ukrainians standing for the independent state are nationalists, while Ukrainian nationalists were killing Jews during World War II, which makes all standing for the independent Ukrainian state open or secret anti-Semites and criminals.

Mass and systematic killings of Jews during World War II in Ukraine were conducted not by Ukrainian nationalists but by Nazi troops and militarized units. These were mainly staff of security service, SS and police as well as assistant personnel.

According to an UNIAN correspondent, SBU archive representative, candidate of historical sciences Oleksander Ishchuk showed declassified documents, which provide an objective basis to state that OUN was not connected with violent actions against the civil population of Lviv in July 1941. According to Mr. Ishchuk, the declassified documents of SBU indicate that on July 4-7 of 1941, representatives of Gestapo, who arrived in Lviv, turned to Ukrainian circles with demand to carry out a three-day massacre of Jews. “The OUN leadership, having got to know about that, informed its members that it was a German provocation in order to compromise Ukrainians with massacres”, the document reads. Mr. Ishchuk highlighted that “The SBU documents confirm that OUN members were trying to avoid taking part in actions against the Jewish population in Lviv, there were no official instructions on this issue”

Cases are known when Bandera supporters in Central and Eastern Ukraine were giving false passports to the Jews or were even hiding them from the Germans. Among those who saved the Jews during World War II there were OUN members including the wife of Roman Shukhevych, UPA chief commander, Natalia as well as the priest Omelyan Kovch (OUN member since 1930s). 

Samuel Drix in Witness to Annihilation: Surviving the Holocaust a Memoir (ISBN 978-0028810874) said this about Stepan's cousin, Osip: "Engineer Bandera was not anti-Semitic as far as I could tell. He seemed to me a very decent person, and he had respect for doctors." I would add that technically Stepan was Polish since he was born in the Lviv (Lwow) Oblast. Not to mention he was sitting in Sachsenhausen as a guest of the Nazis for a good portion of the war. 

Note that the Swastika is underfoot

Thus, despite the military cooperation with Germany OUN(b) was pursuing their own political line that the Nazi were not aware of. A good example of such behavior was Declaration of Ukrainian State Act of June 30, 1941 in Lviv. It came as a surprise for Hitler’s supporters as independent Ukraine was never part of the Third Reich’s plans. On July 5, 1941 the Nazis arrested Bandera. And then on July 9,  the head of the newly established government, Yaroslav Stetsko.

The OUN intended to take advantage of the retreat of Soviet forces from Ukraine with the Declaration of State Act. Some members thought that they had found a new powerful ally in Nazi Germany to aid them in their struggle against the Soviet Union. Days after the Nazi invasion of Lviv, however, the leadership of the newly formed government was arrested and sent to concentration camps in Germany. Within two years of the declaration, the Nazis had imprisoned or killed 80% of OUN-B leadership.

It may not be correct to try and justify killing: On the other hand, this was a very violent period where collaborators often met violent ends, as did people in the resistance. There were Jewish Revenge Squads that sought out Nazis and killed them without a trial.

Anyway, the Ukrainians have been working for an independent nation for a while now, but the Russians want to make sure they remain puppets the same way that Belarus is. The reality is that Ukraine is an independent nation, which is guaranteed by the 1994 Budapest Agreement. And that is the goal of Ukrainian nationalists: an independent Ukraine.

See also:

• The Holdomor Resource Library
• The hacked swastika info-op that reinforced antisemitic stereotypes about Ukraine
  
• Declaration of State Act 30 Jun 1940 
•  SBU declassifies documents proving OUN-UPA not connected with anti-Jewish actions
• Smear and Loathing: A Close Look at Accusations of Ukrainian Anti-Semitism 
• History of OUN-UPA: the Bandera controversy that eclipsed 200,000 people who fought for the independence of Ukraine
•  Historian Andrey Zubov: Banderites are an example of the great lie of the Soviet system
•  A few words for Christopher Miller about “Banderites” and Ukrainian history
  
• 10 Myths about the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) 
• 10 myths about the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). Myth #3: Bandera and Ukrainian nationalists were agents of the Nazi special services
  
• 10 myths about the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). Myth #5: Ukrainian nationalists were massively killing Jews during World War II, especially in Lviv and in Babyn Yar
• The Ukrainian Insurgent Army — Inside One of WW2’s Strangest Resistance Movements
  
• CIA‘s Use of Nazi Strategy on Ukrainian Right-Wing Nationalists Unabated since Cold War  
• Yizkor.org Sepher Stryj- Chapters 2 & 3 
• Jewish Revenge Squads 
•  Ukraine got a signed commitment in 1994 to ensure its security – but can the US and allies stop Putin’s aggression now?
• American Nazism and Madison Square Garden