Showing posts with label 2016 Presidency race. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016 Presidency race. Show all posts

Thursday, February 7, 2019

Who needs Russians when you have Hillary?

Take a candidate with a reputation for saying anything and doing nothing. Toss in her credibility problem. Then let her go out without handlers and unscripted...



As I have said, the standard for a criminal conviction is beyond a reasonable doubt. You can provide reasonable doubt by providing evidence that there might be another, more plausible, reason for something.

Toss in that the only thing the Russians are supposed to have done was use internal Democratic National Committee documents to throw the election.

Maybe the Russians are responsible for Hillary Clinton being the candidate as well.

See also:

Close election, or bad campaign?

OK, I strongly believe that Sanders would have won the 2016 Election had he been allowed to run. He was the people's candidate in that he ran on small donations. He also got people energised.

Whatever the case, that is moot since the Democrats made it clear they preferred to lose with Clinton than Win with Sanders.

I don't need anyone to tell me what I saw was due to Russian Influence: there is more than enough documentation of how the Democrats tried to silence dissent throughout the election.

Anyway, I make it obvious I like to play with the interactive maps at 270towin because one of the underlying assumptions of the "Russian Influence" argument is that the popular vote mattered (it didn't).

Take the actual results of the Electoral votes:


Now superimpose this map of where the results were considered close:


it puts paid to the argument that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were the three states that somehow "mattered" in the election. It also shows why the pundits were saying that Clinton would win in a landslide in the electoral college (remember, most states are winner take all no matter what the actual result would be).

On the other hand, it show how silly the "Russian Influence" and "Third Party voter" arguments are to the actual results in the Electoral College. Clinton could have won with a couple of the close states.

Yet she didn't.

Also, this shows that the Electoral College leads to a national race and protects smaller states arguments are wrong.

Fair Vote pointed out that two-thirds (273 of 399) of the general-election
campaign events in the 2016 presidential race were in just 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Michigan).


94% of the 2016 events (375 of the 399) were in 12 states (the 11 states identified in early 2016 as "battleground" states by Politico and The Hill plus Arizona). This fact validates the statement by former presidential candidate and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin on September 2, 2015, that “The nation as a whole is not going to elect the next president.

BTW, Clinton could have won the election if she had Electoral College wins in North Carolina and Florida, the two states with the most campaign events.

Any attempts at influencing the elections by a foreign power would be difficult given the distortions of popular vote by the Electoral College.

Anyway, the bottom line is that Clinton was a poor candidate who ran a bad campaign.

You can't blame the Russians for that. Unless you want to tell me that the DNC is somehow part of the Russian Plot.

See also:
Two-thirds of Presidential Campaign Is in Just 6 States
FairVote: The Electoral College
Electoral College Distortions: "Winner" could lose popular vote by a landslide

Sunday, January 13, 2019

No, the Green Party, or any other third party, did not cost Clinton the election

The Fact is Hillary Clinton won the popular vote with 65,853,516 (48.5% votes) to Trump's 62,984,825 (46.4% votes), but lost in the electoral college by receiving 232 (43.1%) of the electoral votes to Trump's 306 (56.8%) votes.

But some people don't want to admit that the Electoral College is pretty much what put Trump in place. Probably because most people have no idea what the fuck the Electoral College does.

Quite simply it invalidates the popular vote.

Anyway, somebody was trying to tell me that Clinton would have won if Green voters in  Michigan and Pennsylvania had voted for her. That argument is obviously fallacious, but It’s easy to see why people point the finger at third-party votes. In Michigan, where the election was so close that the Associated Press still hadn’t called the result until some time after the election. Trump was ahead by about 12,000 votes at that time. That was significantly less than the 242,867 votes that went to third-party candidates in Michigan

On the other hand, Clinton would have still lost even if she had managed to win the popular vote in either Michigan or Pennsylvania.

That's because of how the Electoral College works. Clinton would have won 248 Electoral College votes if the 232 Votes had been supplemented only with Michigan's Electoral votes. She would have had 252 Electoral votes if she have won only Pennsylvania's Electoral College votes.  Even with winning Michigan's and Pennsylvania's Electoral College votes, she would have fallen short of the 270 electoral College votes by 2 votes (268). Trump still wins in any of those three possible outcomes.

Clinton needed to win all three states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, to get the 270 Electoral Votes needed to win.

There's a reason why the Interactive Electoral College map site is called https://www.270towin.com/. As they point out:
Since electoral votes are generally allocated on an "all or none" basis by state, the election of a U.S President is about winning the popular vote in enough states to achieve 270 electoral votes, a majority of the 538 that are available. Receiving the most votes nationwide is irrelevant, as we have seen in two of the most recent five presidential elections where the electoral vote winner and the popular vote winner were different.
There are a lot of other problems with trying to blame the Third Parties for Clinton's loss (especially since Gary Johnson received a larger percentage of the vote than Jill Stein).

One of the major reasons I left the Democratic Party, and the duopoly, is that Election Reform is a really big issue in US politics. Only the Third parties were discussing this.

The 2016 Election also demonstrated that voting was pretty much meaningless. The primaries are a sham and rigged to eliminate candidates from running (cost). And the Presidential Election is really a sham with the Electoral College in Place.

The Electoral College is one of the glaring flaws in US politics, but people want to blame everything but the flawed system for the problems we see.


See Also

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Why I cited "Hillary Clinton's popular vote margin is meaningless in every way (except pithy tweets)"

There are a bunch of good reasons to have mentioned that in my last post.

First off, it doesn't really contradict any of my argument. In fact, it pretty much makes my point: the electoral college is undemocratic. Toss in that Hillary Clinton ran a campaign that was better for first past the post than one where the result will be determined by an undemocratic institution unique to US politics.

The folks who want to tell me I somehow wasted my vote by voting for Jill Stein don't understand the plethora of reasons WHY I voted the way I did. One of the major factors was that the US system of elections needs to change.

I would have been far more pissed off had I voted for Clinton to have her lost in the manner she lost to Trump. Adding to her large margin of the popular vote only to see her lose would have been a wasted vote. Instead I voted for someone I believed in.

And, no, I probably wouldn't have held my nose and voted for another Clinton.

Too many things need to change in the US system of elections and blaming everybody and everything except for the real issues that led to Clinton losing only turns me off the discussion.

Unfortunately, the person who wrote the post doesn't really understand how the electoral college skews the vote so that a minority of states actually determine who will be president.[1]  That is true to the extent that it is theoretically possible for 11 States to determine who will be president. Take this quiz for an eye opener on how undemocratic the electoral college happens to be.

So much for the big states not being able to overrule the smaller ones.  That is one of the most bullshit reasons to keep the electoral college. Seriously, anyone who makes that argument needs to take the quiz to see how wrong they are. The only thing the electoral college does is distort the results of the presidential election.

In the all-or-none Electoral College system, the importance of each individual vote is magnified in closely-contended states. That's why, as the election approaches, some states get far more attention from the candidates, both in terms of visits and local advertising dollars spent. If we had a popular vote election, the candidates would likely spend most of their time and energy in the most populous states, supplemented by national advertising. We'll leave it to others - and there is no shortage of opinions - to debate which system is best.

So, no, the electoral college does not result in a "national" election. If anything, it results in states being totally neglected for the states that are considered "battlegrounds". Clinton took Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin for granted to the point that she totally ignored Wisconsin. I heard anecdotally that Democratic Get out the Vote volunteers in Pennsylvania actually made calls to Trump supporters!

“It’s is nothing short of malpractice that her campaign didn’t look at the electoral college and put substantial resources in states like Michigan and Wisconsin,” says Democratic pollster Paul Maslin. Naw, they preferred to blame the people who voted green for their fuck ups.

Oh, and the blog where the post about Clinton's margin being insignificant (and how great the electoral college is) was made is called "excess of democracy". I personally do not see a difference of nearly three million popular votes to be insignificant.

But the learned professor seems to ignore that the electoral college has been modified in the past to try and fix it. I would also add that it is unique to the United States, which makes one question its utility. It has demonstrated it does none of the things its proponents claim it does. In fact it pretty much places the election of the president in the votes a few states, increases the regionalism, and has led to deeply polarized electorate.

Bottom line, the US system of elections needs a serious overhaul: not finger pointing and trying to find blame.


Footnotes:
  1. John F. Kennedy won the 1960 election, despite winning the popular vote (and thus the electoral votes) of only 23 of the 50 states. Jimmy Carter won 23 states in 1976, but he also won DC, which by then was participating with 3 electoral votes. George W. Bush won 30 states in 2000, despite the closeness of the electoral vote. 

See Also

Sunday, April 29, 2018

Trump was not popularly elected.

I get really annoyed when I see people saying that Donald trump "won" the US election and try to make it sound as if he won the popular vote.

He didn't win the popular vote: he won in the electoral college.

The popular vote is the small print in the picture above. It's also the small print in the debate about Trump being US President.

The people are distracted to nebulous "Russian interference" Instead of addressing the glaring problems in US "democracy", which this is a glaring example. Yet no one seems to be willing to address the fact that the electoral college distorts the vote even when it isn't creating a mess like this one.

Elite media outlets do not, for the most part, have an interest in vote counts and what they mean. Coverage of the 2016 election campaign confirmed the extent to which major media are more interested in personalities than facts on the ground. The television networks like to declare a “winner” and then get focused on the palace intrigues surrounding a transition of power. Those intrigues are worth covering. But perspective on the will of the people get lost. Election-night numbers get locked in, and that’s that.

On the other hand, Clinton's margin  of victory in the popular vote was larger than John Kennedy's and Richard Nixon's, I've seen a statistic that her popular vote margin was the third largest in US elections! (It was the third highest for someone who lost an election, it was also fairly significant among the people who won the election)

Multiple candidates in American history have been elected president with far smaller margins than Clinton's in the popular vote. According to figures from the Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections—and as alluded to by one Atlantic reader—they include:
James Garfield in 1880: 0.09 percentage points
John F. Kennedy in 1960: 0.17 percentage points
Grover Cleveland in 1884: 0.57 percentage points
Richard Nixon in 1968: 0.7 percentage points
James Polk in 1844: 1.45 percentage points
Since the final vote count did, indeed, put her well above 2 percentage points ahead of Trump, her margin went beyond those of winning presidential nominees Jimmy Carter in 1976 (2.07 percentage points) and George W. Bush in 2004 (2.47 percentage points). And all this is not to mention the presidents who’ve been elected without winning the popular vote at all. That’s a list that includes Bush in 2000, and Trump.

Yet she lost. Trump lost the popular vote by more than any successfully elected president ever. And Clinton lost the election with a pretty hefty amount of popular votes.


So, no Hillary's margin of the popular vote is highly important since it demonstrates how fucked US "democracy" happens to be. There is a reason that the elections take forever: it's that it raises the cost of running for office. Again, the get the money out of politics crowd isn't talking about that aspect of the issue.


I agree with Donald Trump, who in 2012 described the Electoral College a “disaster for democracy.” Trump told CBS’s 60 Minutes after the 2016 election was over that he still agrees with himself—even if he is not prepared to defer to the will of the people in this instance. “I would rather see it where you went with simple votes,” Trump explained. “You know, you get 100 million votes and somebody else gets 90 million votes and you win.”

Stop trying to pin the 2016 election on the Russians since the problems are 100% home grown.

See Also

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Trump a mistake

Seriously,  I have to wonder about whether this picture accurately describes the game plan for the 2016 election.

The reason for my saying this is that Trump's campaign has been described as a clown car in quite a few places (e.g. the Economist).

Now, there is a book out that pretty much cements all the rumours about the Trump campaign. Michael Wolff's, Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House, claims that Trump was horribly unprepared for the challenge he took on. It seems to me that Trump wasn't supposed to be the winner in the election.

According to this book:
"Shortly after 8pm on Election Night, when the unexpected trend - Trump might actually win - seemed confirmed, Don Jr told a friend that his father, or DJT, as he calls him, looked as if he had seen a ghost. Melania was in tears - and not of joy. There was, in the space of little more than an hour, in Steve Bannon's not unamused observation, a befuddled Trump morphing into a disbelieving Trump and then into a horrified Trump. But still to come was the final transformation: Suddenly, Donald Trump became a man who believed that he deserved to be, and was wholly capable of being, the president of the United States."

On the other hand, Tony Blair commented  about the claims made about him in the book that “This story is a complete fabrication, literally from beginning to end. I’ve never had such conversation in the White House, outside of the White House, with Jared Kushner, with anybody else.”

I have to admit that if Trump's election was a monumental fuck up in that Clinton was supposed to have won, that his election makes serious scrutiny of the Electoral College a must: far more than silly allegations of Russian Interference in the election. 

Any screw ups in the US electoral system are purely home grown: they don't need anyone else to make the system worse.

After all, the Election was framed as a choice between two of the worst possible candidates imaginable.

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

What if HIllary Clinton had "won" the 2016 election?

This is one of those "alternative history" scenarios where you don't have to look too far since Hillary DID win the popular vote with 65,853,516 (48.5% votes) to Trump's 62,984,825 (46.4% votes), but lost in the electoral college by receiving 232 (43.1%) of the electoral votes to Trump's 306 (56.8%) votes.

That makes this question a bit like the "what if the British won the War of Independence?" Where one should just look at Canadian History.

Anyway, Hillary Clinton would have won the election if the electoral college didn't exist, but she would have been stuck with a legislative branch that was controlled by the opposite party.  Not to mention a party which dislikes her intensely (as do quite a few democrats).

I would guess that we would have another ineffective Clinton administration that would probably last only one term.

But, don't get your hopes up about it being much better than the situation the US is currently in since the legislature would have been the same as it is now.

Another take on this (See also):
What if Hillary Had Won?

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Donald Trump did NOT fare well in the debate, not in self control, but especially not the fact checks

Image result for donald trump, clown, penigmaThere were a number of fact check failures for Trump, most notably that he was wrong on ISIS controlling oil in Libya, he was wrong on blaming Obama for the way we left Iraq, and he was especially wrong about Clinton and her campaign starting birtherism.

From CBS.com fact checking:
TRUMP STATEMENT:  ISIS has “oil all over the place, including the oil, a lot of the oil, in Libya.”
FACT CHECK: According to a Bloomberg analysis, Libyan oil fields and pipelines are controlled by a combination of the Government of National Accord, allies of the Tripoli Petroleum Facilities Guard, and the Libyan National Army (and groups aligned with them).
Claudia Gazzini, a Tripoli-based senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told the Washington Post that it was simply not true that the Islamic State has control of any Libyan oil.
“While it is true that ISIS has attacked oil fields in the Sirte basin area and destroyed key equipment there, they have not sought to keep control of the oil fields,” Gazzini said.
and
Patti Solis Doyle, Clinton’s 2008 campaign manager, told Wolf Blitzer a volunteer forwarded an email promoting “birtherism” and that that person was fired. “The campaign nor Hillary did not start the ‘birther’ movement, period, end of story,” Solis Doyle told CNN, saying the volunteer’s actions were “beyond the pale” and that Clinton called Obama campaign manager David Plouffe to apologize.
Blumenthal, a longtime Clinton confidante but not a current campaign staffer, denies ever contacting McClatchy; the former McClatchy bureau chief, James Asher, recently said he clearly recalled the conversation with Blumenthal.
What CBS either omitted or did not know is that James Asher no longer is making the claim of recalling the Blumenthal conversation, and that the investigatory mission to Kenya by McClatchy news was the result of multiple stories being published at the time.

Trump fat out LIED when he claimed he only filed for bankruptcy four times -- which is a LOT of bankruptcies.  Four bankruptcies argues being very bad at business. It was not four it was six bankruptcies. 

Again per CBS and politifact (because it is important to multisource):
FACT CHECK: Clinton is correct. When Politifact looked into this issue, they found six times that Trump has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection: The Trump Taj Mahal in 1991; Trump Castle in 1992; Trump Plaza and Casino in 1992; the Plaza Hotel in 1992; Trump Hotels and Casinos Resorts in 2004; and Trump Entertainment Resorts in 2009.
I think my greatest outrage is that Trump believes he is in some way more presidential APPEARING than Clinton. Ms. Clinton was elegantly groomed and very presentable. Trump in contrast, has demanded that his appearance NOT be an issue, while he has repeatedly demeaned his women opponents from Carly Fiorina to Clinton, and has demeaned women more broadly, including those in his employ. Women are not qualified or unqualified from office on the basis of appearance. But if we were going to assess ability on the basis of appearance, Trump is a fat, jowly, puffy-eyed, badly spray-tanned smirking swine with an unattractive piece of roadkill on his head, like a tacky version of a Daniel Boone hat. He is in no position to criticize anyone's appearance, other than he clearly believes this view of women as sexual objects and male accessories, sometimes called the demeaning term eye candy, is the exclusive prerogative of men.

The hypocrisy in this, the obscene double standard, is that Trump behaved badly, interrupting Clinton repeatedly - in the first 26 minutes of the debate, Trump interrupted Hillary 25 times, per Vox.

Huff Po referred to this an manterupting:
Manterrupting, defined by journalist and author Feminist Fight Club Jessica Bennett as “unnecessary interruption of a woman by a man,” is a phenomenon that many professional women are (unfortunately) familiar with.
A 2014 study found that women are significantly more likely to be interrupted than men are, and research has shown that when women do speak up, their words are given less weight and treated as less valid than men’s. This phenomenon is especially problematic in fields ― like politics ― which are dominated by men’s voices just by virtue of the numbers.
Women who want to circumvent these professional obstacles have to learn to play the game, and part of that game means dealing with the frustrating habits of one’s male colleagues ― or in the case of a presidential race, one’s political opponents. As Clinton well knows, in order to avoid having her words dismissed, she has to modulate the way she presents her ideas in a way that male candidates simply don’t.
To Clinton’s credit, she appeared unperturbed by Trump’s attempts to verbally bulldoze over her. Each and every time, she kept speaking, often with a sly smile. Because as any professional woman knows, the best way to shut down a manterrupter is to simply refuse to acknowledge him.

Although to be fair, Trump also talked over the moderator, and Hillary Clinton in the second half of the debate did interrupt Trump a few times as well, 17 total to Trump interrupting her 51 times.

I hope this was not a drinking game exercise for the good folks over at Vox.

Counting the interruptions of both candidates by moderator Lester Holt, Clinton was interrupted a total of 70 times, and Trump was interrupted 47 times.
Some of Trump’s interruptions of Clinton featured outright lies, like insisting that he never said climate change was a Chinese conspiracy, or denying that he ever said some of the offensive things about women that Clinton called him out on saying.
Some of his interruptions were petulant asides; at one point he even threw in a one-word, schoolboy-like “Not.”
Other interruptions turned into loud, insistent filibusters, with Trump barreling over Clinton until she finally smiled and relented to let him keep talking — or until Holt interjected to insist that Trump give Clinton her allotted two minutes to talk.
If anything renders someone "unpresidential" it would be this Trump failure to control his mouth and his toxic attitudes of special entitlement towards others.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Melania Trump maybe a gold digger and posed for some racey photos but she is NOT an escort.

Just Do it!The left side of our blog demands critical thinking and evidence.  We mean it.

The Daily Mail, one source of the story (among others, but notably the one source that has not retracted the story to date) has been threatened with legal action over their reporting of the story by the magazine Suzy that Melania Trump was a pricey prostitute / high end sex worker / escort.   Importantly, the Daily Mail made no conclusions and only reported the story and in fact used language calling the veracity of the story into question.  Even so, Trump threatened suit as is his norm.  Most other websites which carried the story and which are far smaller operations than the Daily Mail, pulled their stories down for fear of suit.  This is a pattern for Trump and a VERY chilling event as it calls into question what Trump might do to the concept of a free press but that's a different story.

In a related story, dug up by equally sleazy and frequently fact-challenged bigot spigot 'Red State', they advance the claim that Donald Trump appears to have licensed his valuable Trump name to an escort service.  Except that as uncovered by the WaPo, NO, Trump never licensed his name or in any way was part of the Trump escort business, now operating under another name after they were hassled over it by the real Trump.

Because serious journalism digs up facts, even when those facts benefit someone like the Trumps.  It is a matter of professionalism and ethical standards. It is about honesty, it is about valuing an objective world view.

More than that, those on the left who ran with the story got push back for it from the left.

The Daily Mail still reported the story, yet at least had the decency to be clear they had no evidence or identifiable on-the-record sources.  Perhaps they should have considered not running the story at all. The Daily Mail, is an unreliable irresponsible freakishly bad sleazy tabloid, hugely mocked in the UK where it is based, and oft quoted by right wing nuts in their alternate reality blog bubbles where facts usually do not penetrate.  They and Red State both deserve condemnation for doing a substandard job of investigative journalism.  Because the right wingers are incompetent and use their media services for slime-ing and to promote a constant and consistent false narrative to taint the world view of their crazier, and more gullible supportive base.

Let us demonstrate in one post a couple of important things.  The first is that so-called 'lefty blogs' like this one apply one single standard by which to evaluate current events and scientific data; there is no double standard hypocrisy here for righties with a different one for the rest of the planet.  The second is that we really DO demand evidence and critical thinking be applied, all the time, to everything, equally, for and from everyone.

The Daily Mail, by contrast, ran photos of Mrs. Trump.  Photos which were less than flattering and more revealing than most women would appreciate.

That has raised questions about Mrs. Trump's work history and immigration status.  If one were small minded, one might even speculate that the local right wing media went after Ihan Omar, Somali-American candidate for the state lege, by making a bogus claim she committed immigration fraud. That would be petty; but then the right is often petty.

I consider anyone who has a background like Melania Trump unqualified to serve as  First Lady, given the misuse of intellectual property in using key parts of a speech given Michele Obama; and given the questions about her educational accomplishments.   No First Lady we know of so far has posed for what were known to be published very revealing photos,, nor is marrying for money as it some might suggest was a motivation for her relationship to a MUCH older man, rather than finding someone who is likely to share your life. The Trumps are not honest people, they are not decent people; and they are greedy and bigoted people.

We have a polarized electorate in large part because there is a right wing media that exists to lie, to smear, to ignore and deny facts, while promoting a false narrative that deludes their supporters into believing things which are not true, which makes them paranoid, which leads them to credit crazy crack pot tin-foil-hat-wearing conspiracy theories.  It embraces bigots and extremists, no matter how violent or evil, while driving out moderates who do not pander to the fact-averse or crackpot. 

The right wing media, and their candidate, have dumbed down America and encouraged the most evil and hateful tendencies among us.  They are wrong.  They are bad.  They are destructive - even to themselves.

Sunday, August 21, 2016

Conservative lack of compassion, Conservative inaction, Conservative exploitation of disaster and misery

Remember when we saw the compassionate conservative indifference of Paul Ryan showing up at a soup kitchen for a photo op showing him helping? Except, he wasn't helping; he was exploiting the very real pain of poverty for his own self-promotion.
From CBS news: The head of a charity in northeastern Ohio where Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan and his family were photographed cleaning dishes over the weekend said Monday that Ryan was not authorized to be on the premises and "did nothing" while there. Brian J. Antal, president of the Mahoning County St. Vincent De Paul Society in Youngstown, told the Washington Post that the Romney campaign had not asked to make the Saturday visit to the soup kitchen. He said that he runs an apolitical faith-based organization which has bylaws barring it from hosting political candidates, and that the visit jeopardized donations from private individuals. "They showed up there and they did not have permission," he said. "They got one of the volunteers to open up the doors." Antag added that Ryan and his family "did nothing" while on the premises. "He just came in here to get his picture taken at the dining hall," he said.
To elaborate on just how staged the exploitative and manipulative Ryan/Romney non-event was, a parallel to the later Trump event in Louisiana, demonstrating a pattern of conservatives and natural disasters:
The Vinidicator, in Youngstown, reports that according to Juanita Sherba, the coordinator who gave Ryan permission to come to the soup kitchen, Ryan did wash dirty dishes while he was there. The newspaper reports that Ryan's staff asked volunteers "to leave some pots and pans unwashed so the VP nominee and his family could do something when he arrived." "We had to save dishes," she said. "We would have gone home by the time he arrived. We didn't need him to do the dishes. It was getting late, and I said that we were closing in five minutes. I waited longer than that, and he finally arrived." Sherba expressed regret that she had allowed the visit to take place. "It was the phoniest piece of baloney I've ever been associated with," she said. "In hindsight, I would have never let him in the door."
We are seeing that again from the right with the performance of GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump showing up in Louisiana in spite of the expressed request of the Governor that he not do so.   What did he do? Trump passed along a few boxes of playdough for about a minute. Then he left. Where he went to after his little exploitive photo op was here in Minnesota, hitting up people here to fund that campaign he keeps claiming is self-funded. Yeah. That campaign. The one where he insists he won't lie, and the lies like a cheap rug.   Here is Trump in similar inaction, dragging along Mike Pence his Veep candidate. THIS is the level of help, the level of incompetence, that the nation can expect in the event of a national tragedy. Trump would be like Dubya, and like Ryan / Romney, only WORSE.  

Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Sins of the fathers

Ezekiel 18:20 “The soul who sins is the one who will die. The son will not share the guilt of the father, nor will the father share the guilt of the son.”

Apparently the radical right - which is the dominant conservative majority for the moment, in the era of Donald Trump, has gone off their nut over the appearance of the Muslim father of the Muslim Orlando mass shooter at a Hillary campaign appearance (as distinct from the other mass shooters in Florida during the same time frame).But focusing on this is preferable to conservatives to the latest Trump scandal.

Mir Seddique Mateen showed up in a crowd and was recognized. So what? There is no reason to deny him participation in our election process. That would be unconstitutional, since that document forbids any test of religion for office and by extension for participating in elections.

You can't prevent someone from voting for example just because you don't like their religion. But that wasn't enough; the right has sought to smear this man by making false claims, in the hopes by extension not only to damage Mateen but also Hillary Clinton. Clinton's campaign noted they did not know he was present, did not invite him. As noted by Politico:
Clinton kicked off her Florida rally by talking about the massacre, offering condolences to those still grieving and pledging to “be with you as you rebuild your lives.” ...Seddique Mateen told the reporter that he is a Clinton supporter and even held up a sign he had made touting her as “good for national security” as well as her call for more aggressive gun control laws. “Clinton is good for United States versus Donald Trump,” he said. The father said he had been invited to the event as a Clinton supporter but had not received any special invitation from the campaign. The rally was open to the public and the Clinton campaign told WPTV that it did not know that Seddique Mateen was at the event until it had ended. "The rally was a 3,000-person, open-door event for the public,” a Clinton campaign official told the station. “This individual wasn't invited as a guest and the campaign was unaware of his attendance until after the event."
...
Asked by the WPTV reporter if he thought the public would be surprised to see him at a public event so close to Orlando, the gunman’s father responded that he was puzzled by the question’s premise.
“Why they should be surprised?” He said. “I love United States and I’ve been living here for a long time.”
That part Politico got right. What Politico did NOT get right was this, apparently repeating a story from CBS without fact checking it:
While he appeared patriotic at Monday’s rally, Seddique Mateen has a history of offering pro-Taliban and anti-U.S. rhetoric on his satellite TV program, which is based in the U.S. but geared toward Pashtun Afghans living in America and Europe.
In fact, quite the opposite, Mateen senior was strongly anti-Taliban and anti-Pakistani intelligence associated with hiding bin Laden. In fact it makes sense that Mateen would be pro-Hillary, given she was part of the administration and specifically in the situation room when bin Laden was attacked and killed by US special forces. From Reuters:
Khatab said Seddique Mateen's political views were largely anti-Pakistan. A YouTube channel under Mateen's name had more than 100 videos posted between 2012 and 2015. One of the videos refers to the "killer ISI" - the acronym for Pakistan's main military-run intelligence service - and says the agency is the "creator and father of the world's terrorism." U.S. officials have accused Pakistani intelligence of backing violence against U.S. targets in Afghanistan, although Pakistan denies the allegations. n a February video on his Facebook page, he addresses Taliban members and castigates them for being the "servants" of the ISI. In a June 11 video posted on Facebook, Mateen is dressed in military fatigues and says Afghanistan must "punish the traitors."
This was confirmed as well by the Florida Palm Beach Post interview:
“He’s obviously against Taliban and ISIS and all that,” said Qasim Tarin, a fellow Afghan expatriate who appeared on Seddique Mateen’s YouTube show and followed him on Facebook.
“I’ve known him for a long time. To his Facebook and all, he is absolutely against ISIS and Pakistanis and, of course, ISI intelligence,” the Pakistani security agency some suspect of involvement in terrorism.
Mir Siddique Mateen is apparently in denial about his son's sexual orientation, which follows a pattern of denial that was observed when the shooter, Omar Mateen, was a child.  But equally, his father  and brother in law no longer claim that homosexuality was the cause of the shooting.  Further while Mir Siddique Mateen is far from enlightened as regards LGBT sexuality, he does himself leave it to God to address rather than humans.  So the man's a homophobe, but not one of the more virulent who wants them discriminated against in some way.  Nor did he attend a radical mosque as the far right wing rags falsely reported, pandering to ginning up Islamophobia  .

So..........why shouldn't he go to a Clinton event?  The father of the shooter did nothing wrong, and appears to have been unaware of what his son, who lived separately, did. As ABC noted:
Though on television it appeared that Mateen was close to Clinton, he was well outside of the security buffer zone in a location that a longtime Republican presidential campaign advance staffer described as a "tapestry" -- an area where a diverse group would be seated to reflect wide-ranging support for the candidate.

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Just Sayin'

Via Vice News and Our Principles PAC, founded by Mitt Romney's deputy campaign manager, Katie Packer.

It says it all.

It says so much.

It says, NO TRUMP in any public office, much less president.

Sunday, March 9, 2014

Michele Bachmann Struggles with Rejection by America by Attending CPAC

At CPAC, Michele Bachmann continued her cray-cray. She is dealing with rejection the same way she deals with the rest of reality, by denying it. Her own party and base don't want her. She couldn't get re-elected in Minnesota CD6 if she ran.
From the Huff Po:
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) continued her effort on Saturday to tank a potential 2016 presidential bid by Hillary Clinton, telling the crowd at the Conservative Political Action Conference that a woman should eventually be president -- but not the one many Democrats are rooting for.
"We will have a woman for president, just the right one," she said, adding that Republicans are the only party that had a woman on the presidential ticket this century: former Gov. Sarah Palin as the vice presidential nominee in 2008.
Bachmann, who ran for the Republican nomination unsuccessfully in 2012 and declined to run for reelection in Congress this year, was invited to CPAC as a guest of Jenny Beth Martin, the president and co-founder of Tea Party Patriots.
She went on to attack Clinton's work as secretary of state, including relations with Russia and the Benghazi attacks in 2012 that killed four Americans.
"She's going to have to answer a very tough question: Did she pick up the phone and call the secretary of defense and the president of the United States and demand that they send a military rescue operation into Benghazi to rescue Americans that were under fire?" Bachmann said.
Michele Bachmann has low approval ratings - and has had them for quite a long time. The same is true of her buddy in politics, Sarah Palin, unless you get your fake reality from the right wing media.

Of course, Michele Bachmann, like so many conservatives, has a hard time owning responsibility for that disapproval, including the massive failure of the shut-down of government that she supported last fall.  Palin gave the keynote speech at this year's CPAC.

Back in January of this year a PPP poll showed Palin popular among Republican Primary voters, one of the most extreme right wing of the generally radical right.  However, given how badly she failed in 2008 and her failure to remedy any of her failings and deficiencies, there is no way that Palin could become the national candidate for the GOP, much less win a general election in 2016, against ANY of the potential Democratic candidates.

Palin is so generally unpopular, she couldn't win her conservative home state of Alaska - according to mixed messages from PPP.  There is clearly a big difference between Republican primary voters, and the overwhelming majority of normal, sane people.

From PPP - in January:
The best liked person we tested on this poll with Republican primary voters is actually Sarah Palin who has a 70/20 favorability rating. She's followed by Huckabee at 64/18, Ryan at 58/18, Paul at 58/21, Bush at 56/18, Cruz at 45/20, and Christie at 40/38. Most of those numbers are similar to what they were a month ago but Christie's seen a substantial drop from +18 at 47/29 a month ago to his new +2 net favorability.
From PPP - in February:
-Sarah Palin continues to be so unpopular in her home state that she trails Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical contest for President there. Only 39% of voters in Alaska have a favorable opinion of her to 55% who see her in a negative light, and she trails Clinton 44/43 in a head to head. Palin does worse in her home state than any of the other potential Republican candidates we tested. Jeb Bush is the strongest, leading Clinton by 8 at 47/39, followed by Rand Paul who leads her by 6 at 47/41, and Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee who both lead her by 4 points at 43/39 and 45/41 respectively.
The Republican primary field is a jumble with six potential candidates polling in double digits. Rand Paul leads with 15% to 13% for Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz, 12% for Jeb Bush, 11% for Mike Huckabee, 10% for Chris Christie, 6% for Marco Rubio, and 4% each for Paul Ryan and Scott Walker. Even among GOP voters only 28% think Palin should run for President in 2016, compared to 62% who think she should sit it out.

One of the best litmus tests to define a conservative is that they believe things that are not true. That continues to define Palin, the radical right, and more than most of the radical-right-wing-nuttery, that defines soon to be out of office Michele Bachmann. THAT day cannot come soon enough.  But it is likely that Palin and Bachmann and the Tea Party branch of the GOP will believe that they can elect a woman to the presidency, in spite of the efforts by the radical right to continue waging their culture wars on women.

What can you expect from people who hear voices in their head, and think they personally are challenging the voice of God?

Legitimate candidates for office can distinguish the difference between reality, and right wing primaries or CPAC.