Putin is a definite narcissist.

Narcissists have a hard time admitting defeat or that they were wrong. Argue with my ex-wife is you don't believe me. Anyway, the drama seems to have toned down. So back to the Russian overt narc.

People are beginning to believe the Ukrainians when they releast the casualties and losses for the Russian army.

Ukrainian kids grow up hearing how their parents, grandparents, and Greatgrandparents fought the Germans and the Russians. It's the home of the partisan Otriads from Defiance. Of course, they are kicking Russian ass.

As for Nato expansion, all the former Eastern Block countries get it. The current spate of war crimes in Ukraine show why the West should have been doing all it could to supply the Ukrainians in the war to save their homeland.

Chernobyl is a good defence

 OK, getting back on my feet after leaving my narc wife, which is something that Doggone has been waiting for me to do for the last 12 years!

Anyway, I mentioned Chernobyl in a previous post. It seems that:

Several hundred Russian soldiers were forced to hastily withdraw from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine after suffering “acute radiation sickness” from contaminated soil, according to Ukrainian officials.

The Russians really effed this one! https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-suffer-acute-radiation-sickness-after-digging-chernobyl-trenches

SSDD 2

The Russians are pretty much back at "Go" despite all their losses. They have rolled back their surrender demands, but the Ukrainians aren't calling it quits until the bully has been smacked down.

SSDD

More videos of demoralised Russian soldiers (Hi, Mitch, watch this space), yet no Russian surrender.

Putin is doing a better job of trashing Russia than what he has been alleged to have done in the US.

BTW, my cousin is a medic in the Kharkiv region and doing OK.

Family issues have me occupied.

The disaster which is Russia's war in Ukraine continues

And they are getting the shit pounded out of them. I could get into the reasons, but it was a failure before it began,.

Any hope of keeping the Donbass and Crimea for Russia are gone. Of course, that situation should never have happened, but the Obama administration let them happen. No real attempts to embargo Russia were made.

Some companies still aren't complying. Russia needs to be squeezed economically, even if it means discomfort for Europeans. What they would go through by having to turn down the hear and cut back on driving isn't as bad as what Ukrainians are going through.

Russia "reframes" its war goals in Ukraine

Which is a way to get around that the "special military operation" has been a massive failure for Russia.

A joke from Moscow: "According to Putin the special military operation is really a conflict btw Russia and NATO about World dominance. Whats the situation now?" "Russia has lost 15000 troops, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1000 trucks. NATO hasn't arrived yet."

Moscow could have mounted a much more limited offensive if capturing the whole of Donbass had been the objective from the start. That would have eliminated the effort and losses involved in invading Ukraine from the north, east and south. 

"Obviously they have completely failed in everything they've set out to do and so now they are redefining what the purpose is so they can declare victory," said Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. army forces in Europe who now works for the Center for European Policy Analysis. "Clearly they do not have the ability to continue sustained large-scale offensive operations... Their logistics problems have been apparent to everybody, they've got serious manpower issues and the resistance has been way beyond anything they could have possibly imagined."

Another problem for Russia was that the "liberation" was unwanted as evidenced by peaceful resistance. I wanted to do a piece on the Bayraktar TB2 drone, but that has been covered very well. On the other hand, here we have protesters in Svobody Square in Kherson singing the Byraktar Song:

Here we have a crowd of residents of Russian-occupied Slavutych in northern Ukraine forcing Russian troops to run with just their chants of “fuck off”, “go home, murderers”, and “glory to ukraine” despite being shot at.

So, what we are seeing is poorly equipped troops in an ill-conceived action meeting resistance both non-violent and military with predictrable results.

And the Ukrainian Minstry of Defence provides the information if you want to steal a Russian tank:

https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/portfolio/t-72/

Russians judge Kyiv "too difficult". Kherson back in Ukrainian Control.

 

From Le Monde online

Nothing like being away from your computer to see this when the browser opens up. I would have liked to see Russia unconditionally surrendered. Judging Kyiv "too difficult" is a bit of a let down, but still funny.  The Azov Batallion will show them Donbass is "trop dur".

 

Oh, and another city is back in Ukrainian control. 

 I was predicting mutinies in the Russian army. They've begun in earnest.

As I keep saying, waiting for the Russians to surrender is like:

 

  

Русский военный корабль, иди нахуй

 

 And people believe these clowns could have swung the 2016 election!

Russians give up, you're getting beaten badly.

I keep waking up expecting to hear that Russia has finally surrendered, but Putain has doubled down on his losing bet. They are actually hurting their military while helping Ukraine build theirs.

As I keep saying, waiting for the Russian surrender is like:

Russia's War on Ukraine enters its Second Month and they really should give up

The problem is that the Russians would have to make serious concessions if they surrender. They aren't in a position to ask for much as their military is being destroyed. I've heard it said that Putain would rather start World War III than admit his army was beaten by the Hostomel Territorial Defence Corps.

Seriously. In a virtual address to NATO, President Zelensky said that he has one demand. “After such a war against Russia… Please, never, never again tell us that our army does not meet NATO standards.” Zelensky added “But NATO has yet to show what the Alliance can do to save people. To show that this is truly the most powerful defense association in the world. And the world is waiting. And Ukraine is very much waiting, for real action."

Western sources need to start taking Ukraine seriously because people who have trained with the Ukrainian Army prior to the war have only praise.  Money and supplies are nice, but they need to be on the ground: not on paper.

I am also amazed that Western news sources are not reporting that the Russian forces have been pretty much contained around Kyiv. A month into Russia’s war against Ukraine - Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa and other major cities are under the Ukrainian flag. That means the war will move to the Eastern part which is where the worst fighting has been for most of this war.

It's good that the pressure is off Kyiv, but things are really bad in the Eastern War zone. The people in the occupied territories are being mistreated by Russian forces. There are documented cases of War crimes. Also, the Russians are admitting they are not doing well in communications intercepted by Ukrainian military intelligence.

It's amusing when people say that Ukraine should be thankful for the aid from Western Countries. While nice on paper and good for PR, it hasn't really reached Ukraine.

The situation is pretty much the same as it was during the time of the OUN-UPA: Ukrainians are fighting on their own with little outside support. I know Russian propaganda wants to paint the Azov Battalion as Nazis, but they are Ukrainian patriots like the UPA was. The units are much more of a cross section of Ukrainian society than Russian propaganda would have you believe. Cool, this was in my search:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-azov-battalion-putins-excuse-for-war-against-nazis-in-ukraine/ar-AAVnfI8 

https://tinyurl.com/3bzck5m3

I guess when your country, Russia, illegally invades another country and commits war crimes you have to try to make yourself look good. Especially when your getting the shit kicked out of your large army. 

Russia cannot get out of the mess it created for itself without being seriously hurt.

There is a petition to NATO countries which is asking them to acknowledge: 

• Russia is an outlaw terrorist state threatening world peace -
• RU is waging genocidal war on Ukraine to extinguish UA as an independent nation 
• RU's main objective is to see the end of the rules-based intl order
  

Damn. The Russians Still haven't surrendered! Part II!

According to the Wall Street Journal (https://tinyurl.com/2p8w9kcw) :

NATO says that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded, taken prisoner or are missing in Ukraine, said a senior military official from the alliance.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization calculates the figure based on information provided by Ukrainian authorities and information obtained from Russia – both officially and unintentionally, the official said.

NATO estimates that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the invasion began on Feb. 24. Using statistical averages from past conflicts that for every casualty roughly three soldiers are wounded, NATO analysts reach their total figure.

Russia began its invasion with roughly 190,000 troops. It has since brought in additional troops from Chechnya, Syria and other locations.

As I said, I am way ahead of the news cycle and have heard confirmed reports that the Russian army has been beaten around Kyiv. Makariv, Bucha, Irpin, Dmyrivka communities have been retaken by the Ukrainian military, but those communities remain under constant enemy fire. I have heard that the Russians in the East of Kyiv have also been beaten. That means the war shifts to the Eastern part of Ukraine where the Azov Battalion is defending Mariupol. Source: https://rubryka.com/en/2022/03/23/zsu-vzyaly-v-kiltse-irpin-buchu-ta-gostomel/

So, why was Russia given the advantage and Ukraine going to get defeated according to Western Intelligence sources?  Ukraine's social media is filled with disappointment at the quality of Western military analysis, in particular, over-estimating the ability of the Russian army. Most people explain this as Western experts reading Russian sources and believed them. On the other hand, Ukrainians had direct practical knowledge, but they were pretty much ignored by the Western Agencies. Now, The Ukrainian military and defence studies community also produced a lot of literature in the last 8 years will probably be read, but it's too late now.

I have to admit that I though the Russian military would have done slightly better, but I knew the Ukrainians would put up incredibly strong resistance. I also didn't expect the amount of unification that the Russian invasion and subsequent war would cause.

Damn. The Russians Still haven't surrendered!

 

Let's start with a quote from an article in Politico,The Real Goal of Kremlin Disinformation Isn’t What You Think:

"We live in a hyperactive attention economy of unprecedented scale and intensity. And as we swipe and scroll through our news feeds, the Kremlin is biding its time and waiting for us to succumb to 'Ukraine fatigue'. In fact, they are banking on it."

That draws a few interesting observations not all realted to the War in Ukraine. But the most pertinent observation isn't that I have fatigue, but I get more and more annoyed. In fact, it makes it even more important that Russia gets hammered in any surrender agreement. Or to paraphrase Basil Fawlty,

"You keep mentioning the war." 

"Well, you started it." 

"We didn't start it."

 "Yes, you did...you invaded Ukraine."

Part of me wants to see Russia get as hammered as Germany was after the 14-18 War, but that treaty was too harsh. Anyway, This is today's update from the New Voivce of Ukraine:

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been going on for a month. Today, March 23rd, is the 28th day of Putin's war. 

UPDATE (1233): Operational information of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Russian invasion as of 1200.

·        The return of certain units of the Republic of Belarus to points of permanent deployment has been partially confirmed. At the same time, the Lukashenka regime continues to hold a significant group of troops near the state border of Ukraine;

·        The invaders tried to advance to the area of ​​the village of Teterivske in Kyiv Oblast (about 70 kilometers north-west of central Kyiv), but due to limited forces they did not succeed and were forced to withdraw.

·        As a result of the fighting in the area around Izyum, the Ukrainian defense forces destroyed up to 60% of the personnel and military equipment of an invading Russian force.

·        On the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea in the area of ​​Dzhankoy, the arrival and concentration of personnel and military equipment of units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation has been recorded.

·        The Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting a stabilization operation in certain areas, holding back the advance of the enemy, and in certain directions forcing the enemy to retreat.

Which takes us back to the Politico article which gets into how Russian propaganda works. The best way to counter propaganda is to know how it works. Again, that has interesting ramifications, especially for the Russiagate Crowd. In fact, it confirms my opinion of Russiagate, but that is totally off subject since the an important part is:

Predictive projection. Predictive projection is a preemptive flying of a false flag. If you want to understand what the Kremlin will do next, pay attention to what it says others will do first. Before Putin’s invasion, Russian officials claimed that Ukraine was preparing to taunt the 150,000 Russian troops amassed on its border and attack its own sovereign eastern territory under Kremlin occupation. Now Russian state media is conjuring the specter of Ukraine building a “dirty bomb” and making biological weapons in secret labs with American conspirators. Russian military officials are tying themselves in knots to allege that Ukrainians in the city of Dnipro are laying mines in their own hospitals so as to cause them to explode while Moscow’s jets fly overhead. Such ominous finger-pointing is a characteristic projection of the Kremlin’s own actions and intentions.

In other words, when Russia is talking about biolabs or chemical warfare, it means that Russia may use those methods. In fact, Russia is using landmines in Ukraine. The video above shows where the Russians want to take this war.

Bottom line is Russia has its back against a wall by continuing a losing war. Their intentions are not good.

And the Ukrainians are the real protectors of the World since the "superpowers" are messing with the world.

End of the Ukraine War????

 this story is true, that Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian Army at Bucha, NW of Kyiv.

 

I'm seeing numerous reports, and harassing official Russian sites with them, that the Russian forces west of Kyiv are out of food, fuel, and other supplies. The Russian army is stuck on roads. Cutting supply lines would be almost the same as creating a pocket. It is well known that the Russian supply chains and logistics were shit from the start. It will be the biggest defeat of a Russian army until now if this is true. A rough estimate of 9 thousand Russians would be trapped if the pocket is sealed. Ukraine now needs to start worrying about too many POWs.

The thing is that this has been a major focus for Russia. It's not about Kyiv falling but about diverting large amounts of Ukrainian troops. Then Ukrainian units can be freed up to save the east.

Additionally, Fighting in and around the southern port city of Mariupol remains fierce, as Russia tries to claim a first strategic victory after weeks of fighting. It now includes naval shelling launched from the Sea of Azov, the senior defense official said.

Near the southern city of Mykolaiv, there are now signs that the Russians are repositioning themselves outside the city to the south after facing fierce resistance from Ukrainians, senior U.S. defense official says.

As reported elsewhere, there is a Ukrainian effort afoot to retake terrain they had lost to Russia. Pentagon isn’t commenting on specific locations, but senior defense official says “we’re starting to see indications” that Ukraine is “now able and willing to take back territory.”

That means the Russians are toast! As I have been saying all along, I am amazed they haven't surrendered long ago. The problem is that Putain sees defeat as a moral failure.

Well, Putain has failed in so many ways! 

A tale of two countries

Or why a lot of people on the left (and right) are talking out their asses.

I have to admit my knowledge of Ukraine, and Belarus, is very limited, but I appear to have a better knowledge of the region than most "experts". But the people I am talking about are the pundits on the left who are siding with Putain, whether consciously or not. These are the people who decry US "imperialism" through its unjustified invasions blahblablah. The ones who scream about why people don't care about Syria blahblahblah. NATO is using Ukraine as a puppet blahblahblah.

The ones that anyone with a shred of knowledge about this war can tell these pundit haven't a fucking idea what they are talking about.

Or they are complete whackjobs.

They can be countered quite simply since Ukraine has been an independent nation since 1991. That independence was guaranteed by Russia, the United Kingdom, and US through the 1994 Budapest Accord. The gist of that accord was that Ukraine would be neutral, not join NATO, and in return give up the third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world.

In short, Ukraine was promised neutrality by Russia for not joining NATO and giving up nuclear weapons.

Since then, Ukraine has been fumbling to try and create a nation. It finally gets to a point where it is getting things together and Russia decides to invade.

That pretty much shoots down the left wing talking points. They show hypocrisy by parroting the unjustified invasions thing, yet not decrying the invasion of Ukraine. It's not NATO or the west that is pushing the nations neighbouring Russia to want to join: it's a long history of Russian aggression. In fact, these people are supporting a nation with policies they claim to dislike.

You can't scream about large aggressive nations with bloated militaries invading countries without any justification and support Russia. Likewise, not doing anything is helping to destroy nuclear non-proliferation. In fact, Russia's actions are truly detrimental to the international framework for keeping peace. These lefties would do better to say both Russia and the US engage in actions which are harmful to peace, since they both act in similar ways. At this point, the US has not openly threatened a nuclear first strike. That is one factor which tilts the scale to making Russia the worse actor.

The next one is Russian disdain for human rights and national integrity, which is why this is called "A tale of two countries". In this case, Ukraine and Belarus. Ukraine is working on becoming a democratic nation that would ultimately become part of the European Union.

Belarus is what Putain wants to turn Ukraine into. A true puppet state. Alexander Lukashenko has been the president of that nation since its "independence" in 1994. This is despite an election in 2020 which Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. No surprise that Lukashenko has referred to himself as the "last dictator" in Europe.

Elections are not considered to be free and fair by international monitors, opponents of the regime are repressed, and the media is not free, leading to sanctions being imposed on Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials. Opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claimed to have won a decisive first-round victory with at least 60% of the vote in 2020, and called on Lukashenko to start negotiations. Her campaign subsequently formed the Coordination Council to facilitate a transfer of power and stated that it was ready to organize "long-term protests" against the official results.

And Tsikhanouskaya has been in exile since then. And her husband has been sentenced to 18 years in jail by a sham trial.

Russia is trying to get Belarus to aid in Ukraine, but Lukashenko is shrewder than Putain. Lukashenko knows that his government will topple should he send troops to Ukraine. Belarus dissidents are waiting to fight government troops in Ukraine. Not to mention rumours that Bealrus troops were mutinying early on in the war and refusing to fight in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60827109

Ukraine does not want to be a clone of Belarus, which is why they are fighting. Ukraine wants its independence.

You would think people who claim to be freedom loving would side with the free nation that has been attacked. Especially when a belligerent neighbour invades without reason and commits documented human rights violations.