OK, I have Ukrainian heritage--of course, I'm concerned.

As I like to say, I'm European if we are going into where my ancestors came from: Pretty much the map of EU members with the exception of Portugal and Spain. So...

A little more of Lesia Vasylenko:

I personally would have thought this would have ended a while back, but the Black Knight analogy is indeed a good one for the Russians.  According to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry 40% of  the Russian units that invaded Ukraine during the past weeks were destroyed or defeated.  Despite that Russia is forming and sending in new Units. The Ukrainians are promising that those units will meet the same fate as the ones before them. 

While the Defence Ministry says "Ukraine is invincible", I am still worried that Putain is a madman. And a cornered one at that.

I had to laugh when I saw the headline in L'Obs asking if "Putain was a dictator?"

Seriously?

Fuck yeah, he is!

I agree with Oleksiy Sorokin who says "Listening to Lavrov talking about “a possible compromise,” after Russia killed what looks like tens of thousands of people, I don’t see Ukraine accepting anything less than Russian withdrawal from Donbas, including Donetsk & Luhansk. There’s no middle ground anymore."

And an unnamed Ukrainian negotiator says, "Ukraine could agree to what Russians call "neutral status" but according to the Ukrainian model. That means legally verified security guarantees: in case of war signatories provide weapons and air defense immediately without bureaucratic procedures or conditions,"

Personally, I think Russia needs to be taught a lesson that its aggression doesn't pay off.

Time to mention yet another Ukrainian woman. This one is Oleksandra Kuvshynova, Her Fox News ID listed her as being a "Producer." According to the people on the ground she was what is called a "Fixer", or a local who helps the News Crews navigate the landscape: especially in dangerous areas.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/ukrainian-journalist-oleksandra-kuvshinova-killed-attack

EDIT Fox News wasn't mentioning that she was killed along with their other correspondent, so I will. Fox News said they delayed announcing her death "out of respect for her family".

Not sure what to say after that other than that I hope Fox News changes their bias on Ukraine prestement.

And you wonder why I want this war to end soon, but I want Russia to pay for the devastation its aggression has caused Ukraine. Russia can't get off easily for this act of aggression against its neutal neighbour.

Just in case you want to know more of what is happening:
https://english.nv.ua/nation/day-21-of-putin-s-war-russians-attack-kyiv-zaporizhzhia-vinnytsia-odesa-shore-50225446.html

And a parting word for those of you who want to believe Russian sources, or just want to see Ukrainian resolve:

Do we really want to gamble that Putain won't use nuclear weapons?

 Gary Kasperov has a tweet where he argues like a chess player about this situation. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1503819568879394822

A chess player isn't who I would listen to in this situation. I would want the opinion of a high stakes poker player. Especially since Putain should have folded long ago. 

Chess is logical. It has rules and defined moves. It's hard to cheat in Chess.

Unless someone overturns the chess board.

Poker is a different thing. Bluffing and cheating are commonplace. Toss in the pieces aren't sitting on a board. 

One can argue that war is like chess. Ok, it's a game of strategy in the battlefield, but there is a whole lot more involved than just fighting battles. There are politics, diplomacy, weather, logistics, intelligence, and a whole lot more to consider.

The Baedeker raids happened despite British Intelligence knowing they would occur because they didn't want to give up Enigma. Generals and leaders make decisions that cost lives.

Sure, Putain's Generals MIGHT not follow the order to fire a nuclear weapon, but we have seen that the Russian soldiers are going into a losing battle. Assume also that some of them knew of FSB's advice not to invade Ukraine and you see where this is going.

Another consideration: where would Putain use a nuclear weapon? He's already destroyed a couple of cities: Mariupol and Volnovakha. He's destroying the people he claims to be saving. The reality is that this action is more retribution toward a wayward people than anything else.

So, a first strike could be on a Ukrainian city. The same way Nuclear Weapons were used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The reasoning behind those cities being destroyed was to save lives. Russian forces are being crushed by Ukrainian forces.

I've learned that one cannot reason with unreasonable people. Unreasonable means not logical and they don't follow rules. Putain is crazy and has shown that by starting this war against the advice of the FSB. Still, the Generals and troops still invade against the FSB recommendation. 

Loyal people do stupid things. And someone who is loyal enough will indeed launch a weapon. It's also a whole lot easier to set off a nuclear weapon than most people would like to think. Not many people know about Black Saturday, 27 Oct 1962, Cuban Missile crisis. 

The USS Randolph had detected the Soviet submarine B-59  near Cuba. The destroyer, USS Cony [DD-508] was sent to investigate. Following standard procedure for the Navy during those cold war encounters, the destroyer dropped small, practice depth charges such as those used in training. Those held small amounts of explosives and were not designed to cause damage. The purpose of the small depth charges was to force the diesel submarine to the surface for positive identification. However, B-59 had been submerged for some time with its air conditioning system out and with no source of fresh air. The captain and the crew were exhausted and suffering from oxygen deprivation. There had been no radio contact with Moscow since they submerged and they did not know if war had started. With the submarine’s condition bad and deteriorating, the commander, Captain Valentin Savitsky, ordered his crew to arm its nuclear torpedo and get ready to launch it at the Cony. 

Fortunately, things turned out well, during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Although, the example of a Submarine armed with nuclear weapons is one of Nigel Calder's nuclear nightmares. As I said, it's a lot easier to set off a nuclear weapon than most people want to believe.

Nuclear weapons are no longer the size of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The "suitcase nuke" is not just something from Frederick Forsyth's Fourth Protocol. They are part of the family called tactical nuclear weapons, which are a part of the Russian nuclear arsenal. They are small enough they can be delivered by artillery shell.

Is having a Ukrainian city destroyed by a nuclear weapon a gamble someone wants to take? 

Russia is the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail

They are being pounded, yet will not give up.

And the whole thing is stagnating. The plan to take Kyiv in 3 hours backfired bigtime for the Russians. In fact, It is looking increasingly likely, that Ukraine will be able to prevent Russian army in the North, from EVER encircling Kyiv. The battle seems to be lost to Russia.

Russian invasion planners fucked up royally by placing all their fuel trucks in one basket in that 40 mile convoy. Ukraine played it brilliantly, by blocking that convoy before it reached Hostomel.

Not that the Russians being pinned down makes the situation in any way safe or quiet. The Russians still have artillery and missiles that they lob onto the civillian population daily. The cities in the East are occupied, but there is resistance both armed and unarmed by the Ukrainians to the Russian invasion.

Unlike what happened in the Crimea, the Ukrainians have far more cell phones and are documenting the occupation. Not sure to say whether the Ukrainian resistance is high-tech or low-tech. It's a mixture of the two. Whatever the case, the myth of Russian superiority is being trashed daily.

There are a lot of reasons for this, but "Red Dawn" is turning out to be a Cold War fantasy. One of the reasons Hitler and the Nazis could occupy as much of Europe as they did was collaboration in the occupied territories. Unfortunately, they didn't have the technology to document what was going on then.

I think the big take away from this War is that a small group of armed people can disturb the lives of a lot of people for as long as that small group exists.

The only way to get peace in Ukraine is if Russia is defeated and decomposed once and for all. It cannot be allowed to become an Empire of any sort again.

Uh Oh! People in the US should be careful talking about WMD and Chemical Weapons

I just received something from the Arms Control Association telling me about United States stockpiles of chemical weapons:

When the United States ratified the CWC on April 25th, 1997, it accepted the treaty mandate to eliminate its chemical weapons stockpile and related facilities completely and verifiably by April 29, 2007, with the possibility of a five-year extension until 2012.

But both the 2007 and 2012 deadlines proved to be severe underestimates of the time and effort needed to safely demilitarize all nine declared U.S. chemical weapons stockpiles. The United States requested and received two additional deadline extensions from the international chemical weapons watchdog, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

Now, the United States is pushing hard to finish destroying the last vestiges of its once-massive Cold War-era chemical weapons stockpile by Sept. 30, 2023.

You can read this report here: https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2022-03/final-push-us-chemical-weapons-demilitarization

People in the US might want to start worrying.

Wait until the US Gun Nuts see this....

An open top BMW 6 series with a NSV 12,7x108 heavy machine gun mounted - is not something you see everyday.

 

From the Ukraine Weapons Tracker https://twitter.com/UAWeapons

Ukraine War: No news is good news--sort of.

According to the people on the ground, it means the Russians are stalled. There are still strikes, but there isn't significant action for the most part. The Russians are holding what little territory they have. 

So, let's talk about the numbers. Because I will admit that they sound very optimistic:

The numbers do sound very inflated given that Ukraine's army is pretty small, while Russia's is large and well funded. The Official Ukrainian statement on this (translated from the Telegram post to the left):

Operational Armed Forces During the fighting on the territory of Ukraine, the enemy army lost more than 30% of its composition. This was stated by Adviser to the Head of the President's Office Oleksiy Arestovych on the UA Together TV Marathon. "They are dying, hundreds are dying. Near Mariupol, exactly 250 people were killed and more than 700 were injured. Losses are definitely growing, about 500-1000 every day, but it is difficult to calculate. There are 14,000 to 15,000 for sure, but more than 12,000 are cautious, ”Arestovych said.

According to the Ukrainians, those numbers are conservative!

I thought I made a comment that Putain had lost the War the moment he began his invasion.

The fact that Russian positions are fairly stagnant, instead of the predicted blitzkrieg, pretty much underlines that.

I know a lot of Ukrainians would like to see a no fly zone created over Ukraine. The reality is that Ukrainian air defences are good, not great, at protecting against most airstrikes. NATO doesn't need to provide aircraft. It just needs to make sure Ukrainians are supplied with airdefence weapons to continue.

Yes, the Ukrainians are keeping up the OUN-UPA tradition of using captured enemy equipment, but there is the issue with the condition of the captured equipment. The Ukrainians are using what is servicable.

The Russians are hurting, but the war will not end until Putain, or his succesor, surrenders with the terms that the Ukrainians will remain free and independent. Additionally, the Russians are going to have to pay for their war.

The armistice will not go well for Russia.

I also have a feeling that the West, and China, will probably demand that Russia demilitarises. I hope that this isn't done in the same manner that German was disarmed after the 14-18 war.

The bottom line, there isn't peace in Ukraine. Putain is in a very bad position, which is a scary proposition since he is indeed the madman with WMD. I wish NATO would come to Ukraine's aid to end this quickly, but the reality is Ukraine is on its own.

A good article on one of Russia's mistakes in starting this War.

https://ukraineworld.org/articles/ukraine-explained/putin-misread-ukraine

See also:

• Putin's Worsening Problems
• The Threat from the East: Central-Eastern European Voices Finally Heard
  

Ukrainian biolabs and NeoNazis

 

Oh, man! Where to start here?

First off, I wonder why people talking about this stuff don't mention Chernobyl. In fact, it might be worth a refresher given that these two other issues are somehow filling the 'net.

The Chernobyl disaster was a nuclear accident that occurred on 26 April 1986 at the No. 4 reactor in the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, near the city of Pripyat in the north of the Ukrainian SSR in the Soviet Union. It is considered the worst nuclear disaster in history both in cost and casualties.

Chernobyl is sitting firmly in Russian controlled territory as is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station. The latter is the largest reactor in Europe, and 10th largest in the world. IAEA is unable to monitor these reactors.

Official UA Gov't statement

Ask a Ukrainian about the biolabs or NeoNazis and they will tell you that the reactors are far more problematic. Fortunately:

"Ukrainian energy workers, by risking their own health and lives, were able to avert the risk of a possible nuclear catastrophe that threatened the whole Europe," https://t.me/energoatom_ua/3001

As for bio-labs: Victoria Nuland is yet another example of Biden administration incompetence.  Read her bio, especially her comments about the European Union in 2014, and one has to wonder HOW she ever got her current position. My outspokeness is one reason I am not in either politics or diplomacy. At least I know my weaknesses.

There is a good commentary about Biolabs by Dr. Robert Malone here:

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/03/12/ukraine-biolab-watchtower/

Anything I say would come from that, except I will quote him:

What a mess. Are there any grownups in the house?  This is what happens in a world in which no one trusts anyone anymore, integrity is treated as an obsolete concept, both information and legacy media have become weaponized to such an extent that what passes for official reality becomes just a funhouse hall of mirrors, and the experience, intellect and maturity of those entrusted to manage these matters is just not up to the task.

That pretty much sums up the situation of bio-labs since anyone with a speck of knowledge of this issue can tell you that while you may want to think the worst, this is indeed a lot more innocent than you want it to be.

So, you want to trust the Russians who actually possess WMDs that the Ukrainians are doing "biological research" because the US government lied about Saddam Hussein having WMD?

Yeah, right. 

My advice: steer clear of living near any research university with a medical facility.

Neo-Nazis get much more interesting, especially for me. 

Amusing how Ukraine's defence has become an issue in US politics, especially that part, since as I posted about this issue during the Trump Impeachment relating to Ukraine. Trump Derangement Syndrome blinded people to this issue then (no discussion, or it was like Hunter's laptop). Somehow, it becomes an issue when the issue is funding Ukraine's defence in wartime.

Official Statement from Azov Brigade

And it's why I get pissed when people want to bring US Partisan politics up now. 

Just shut the fuck up and do something significant to help Ukraine.

Anyway, yes, those troops existed. Not sure what their status is now since they could have been killed off early in the fighting. As I said in my earlier posts, these Neo-Nazi units were among the ones fighting in the Donbass. That means they would have been on the front when the Russians rolled into that area. I know that one of their leaders was killed long ago. They like to believe that they are keeping up the ideology of Stepan Bandera.

One of the issues with Stepan Bandera is that he has been dead for 62 years. His direct descendants live in Canada. He has become a myth in Ukrainian society.

Translation difficulties: RU is "Azov Base"

As I said in my other Stepan Bandera posts, he did not support racism the way some people claiming to follow his ideology do:

HOPPE: Would you be so kind, Mr. BANDERA, as to explain in detail the conception “Ukrainian nationalism”?

BANDERA: Today the anti-Bolshevik liberation fight in Ukraine is organized and led by OUN, the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists. The conceptions “Ukrainian nationalist,” “nationalistic movement,” differ from similar terms used in the West. The Ukrainian nationalistic movement has nothing in common with Nazism, fascism or national-socialism. Ukrainian nationalism is fighting against totalitarianism, racism, dictatorship and violence of any kind.

Source: https://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/12/from-cia-archives-stepan-banderas-1954-interview-to-german-radio/ 

And the Bandera clan has Poles and Jews in it as well. And it had them back when he was alive. So....

The neo-Nazi, pseudonationalist organisations have nothing in common with what the OUN-UPA stood for, or Stepan Bandera and his followers were fighting for. I've listed resources for this in other posts.

I would add that the far right groups are not a large segment in Ukrainian politics, and they will most likely become even less of one after the war. https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/.premium-the-far-right-just-got-humiliated-in-ukraine-s-election-but-don-t-write-it-off-1.7563138

The OUN-UPA has more in common with the current War in Ukraine. Ukrainians of other nationalities  fought in the UPA ranks, including Georgians, Azerbaijanis, Tatars, Belgians, Russians, and others. Likewise, Ukrainians of all ethnicities are once again fighting to keep their homeland free from being overwhelmed by the Russian Empire.

Bottom line, if you aren't more concerned that two large nuclear reactors are in the hands of the Russians and not being monitored by international authorities, then I really can't persuade you of very much. That is the real issue, not biolabs or neo-nazis.

See also:

• A few words for Christopher Miller about “Banderites” and Ukrainian history
• From CIA archives: Stepan Bandera’s 1954 interview to German radio

No Vladimir Putain is not sane.

 Once again, I wake up to see that the Ukraine war is not over, but it's spreading.

That's bad news for Russia. Especially since the rest of the world sees that Russia is losing badly. Unfortunately, Ukraine is also being destroyed in the process. It will cost quite a bit to rebuild Ukraine when all this is over.

The Russian economy is collapsing due to economic isolation from the west. It has significant gold reserves, but can't sell gold for a bunch of reasons. The current sanctions target money inside Russias’s foreign exchange reserves. But those holdings in EUR and USD are frozen. And for the people who think gold and currency based money are a good thing. Well, the gold market is simply not very liquid. Never in history did the aggregated sales of all central banks (CBs) exceed 400 tons in a year. And when that happened, gold market participants were already accusing CBs of “market manipulation”. Gold only has value, if “gold whales” (i.e., the central banks) aren’t selling it. 

While Russia has 2000t of gold. There is just absolutely no way Russia could sell more than 5-10% of its gold reserves within like a month. If Russia was starting to sell, prices would plummet, as there is simply very little market depth in the gold market.  Compare that to FIAT currency which is backed by a solvent central bank. 

Case in point, the US Treasury bond (UST) market has basically infinite market depth, which was proven in March 2020. If the value of USTs falls below future cash flows become discounted, the Fed will step in. See: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499339625671938052.html  

Aside: And cryptocurrency: who is backing that? Seriously, you're fucked if someone starts dumping cryptocurrency since it isn't backed by much of anything other than the "block-chain".  

The bottom line is that this war hasn't been working to Putain's plan: militarily or economically. The longer he holds out, the worse the outcome for both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is physically ruined and Russia is economically ruined.  While Ukraine can rebuild, it won't be too long before Russia collapses...Again.

A Chinese observer gives a good reason for stronger involvement from the West:

The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia’s military power is no match for NATO’s, would be even worse for Putin.

The hope is that Putain is rational, but the current situation demonstrates he is not. I know that at least Lithuania is on an alert status. I would also guess that Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania are as well. Those countries are NATO members and an attack on them would trigger NATO involvement.

The longer this lasts, the worse the outcome for everyone--worldwide.

One more comment (adding). Kyiv Independent reports:

⚡️Defense Ministry: Number of Russian casualties hasn't changed for days due to slower offensive.

The official data showing over 12,000 Russian troops killed hasn’t change since March 8 because of decreased confrontation, according to Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 13, 2022

Sources and Other interesting reading:

• Russian economic collapse will be hard to avoid
• Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice
  

 

When will the Russians give up?????

I keep hoping I will hear that the Russians have announced their surrender when I listen to the news (Ukraine and Moscow are 3 hours ahead of UTC). Sadly, I think Francis Fukuyama is mostly correct in his predictions in Heading for Defeat [1]:

1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

Also, Mark Hertling has some good observations on twitter as well.

I said it yesterday on @cnn, I'll say it again today.

Having worked w/ UKR's army, I expected them to be very good. And they have been better than I expected.

Having seen Russian forces in training & exercises, I expected them to be bad. They are worse than I expected. 1/10

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) March 12, 2022

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502667856772747266.html 

Even though this article is titled as being to the left, it applies to the right as well.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/a-letter-to-the-western-left-from-kyiv/

The Western Democracies and Russia signed agreements to ensure Ukraine's neutrality. They are failing miserably in keeping their word as Ukraine is falling.  Point 5 in the Fukuyama piece is the most useful:

 It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.

So, you can support Ukraine without pushing for "direct involvement". Give Ukraine the supplies to fight this war. 

Footnote:

[1] I disagree with his assessment of Biden's MiG decision. US publicly promised MiGs then went back on that promise. That was a very bad move. The US isn't making a very good show of saving the world. The US appears slightly less competent than Russians in how they are handling this matter.

Here's a woman politician with an assault rifle I can get behind!

Nope, she's not from the States, but I bet that headline got your attention. She's Kira Rudik: She's a businesswoman who has worked in the US. Now, she is a member of the Ukrainian Parliament since 2019 and Current leader of the Голос (Holos) Political Party.  Голос has a dual meaning of either "Voice" or "Vote":

 It has two meanings, and both are very important to us. <...> Because Voice is their [the voters'] voice, by which they demonstrate a desire for change, it is their voice of change. On the other hand, it is their vote, that they can cast [in elections]. <...> The voice, in fact, characterizes Ukrainian voters and their desire for change. What else, if not the voice?

This is a party I can really stand behind. 

I might have a lot of qualms if she were in the States, but she's in Ukraine and she will defend he country with her life. She has made it clear that her reason for bearing arms is to defend Ukraine.

Hence the assault rifle. 

She may not be the leader, but she is as strong a voice as Volodomyr Zalenski.

Are we concerned with the #chemical attack as #Biden said?

Well, I am more concerned that #Russian forces are bombarding nuclear plant and turned off Chernobyl cooling system off the electrical grid.@CNN pic.twitter.com/WSq5fayBKA

— Kira Rudik (@kiraincongress) March 11, 2022

She's somebody that is very persuasive for the Ukrainian cause and seen on US and other western media. I haven't been able to interview her, but she is one of many sources I follow on Twitter for news about the Ukraine War.

I haven't met her in person yet, but I hope to someday. I hope that we can work together to rebuild Ukraine and get it firmly in the European Union.

I hope she can inspire support for Ukraine and its freedom in the United States. After all, this is a woman who gets the Second Amendment.

🇺🇦Слава Україні!
💪Разом до перемоги!

See also:

• https://twitter.com/kiraincongress
• Wikipedia Kira Rudik
  

Remind me the reason for one of Trump's impeachments?

 Wasn't it withholding defence funds based upon a "quid pro quo"? Something which was denied by Volodomyr Zalensky:

He said military aid to Ukraine was blocked before the phone call but said “our calls were not linked to Burisma or military aid” and said no conditions were attached to meeting Trump.

“I don’t want to interfere in U.S. elections,” Zelensky also said Thursday. He also said Ukraine was waiting for an official visit to the U.S.

I'm not sure how Mr. Zalensky feels about this past event, but I can tell you that he's pretty upset that Biden torpedoed the promised aid. Ukraine needs all the help it can get to create a No Fly Zone. 

But Ukrainians have fought before without a lot of outside help. They are doing it again. Still, it would be nice if Ukraine were supplied with the necessary arms to defend the skies.

NATO doesn't need to do a lot of work. Just get the weapons to a place where Ukrainians can collect them. I would like to think that the technical know how to cloak these shipments exists. Especially after watching Russian radio commication being blocked by the Ukrainians using low tech methods.

I don't like the duopoly, but I really dislike when the duopoly tries to pretend they have the moral high ground.

Neither party does.

It's time for the US to get a new line up politically.

The Ukraine Detail Nobody’s Talking About

 I love this guy.

The Guardian has been printing negative press about Biden since before the election. I've been mentioning them as well. Here goes--more stories from the Guardian about Biden:

• https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/20/joe-biden-corruption-donald-trump
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/15/joe-biden-donald-trump-democratic-primary-south-carolina
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/27/hunter-biden-joe-biden-president-business-dealings

So, how did two politicians with no support manage to win the election?

What will be the outcome of the Ukraine War.

I would like to think this will end soon. But it will probably go on as long as Putain remains head of Russia's government.

This will signal the end of the US's and Russia's aspirations to be "Superpowers". Especially as long as the US duopoly retains control with the "partisan divide". Both nations will need to become true multi-party democracies to be anything but irrelevant.

Both US and Russia have lost face as countries which are effective at "protecting the world". Russia can't even militarily defeat a smaller country next door: how can it defend the world. The same sort of applies to the US.

China is sitting this out, but sees how the world can band together to weaken a "strong" country.

I see there being multinational alliances, or at least a strengthening of those alliances. The European Union and United Nations will become more important. Although, I see the UN having a radical reworking so that one nation cannot have veto power the way Russia did.

Superpowers and Oligarchs will have to become a thing of the past.

But there will have to be more cooperation and working for peace. This war is coming too close to causing nuclear anihilation.

The ultimate upshot is that there need to be a radical rethink of the world's power structure and the root causes of this crisis.

Waiting for the Russian Surrender in Ukraine is like....

Watching Arthur fighting the Black Knight in Monty Python. Ukraine is Arthur.  Putain and the Russian Army are the Black Knight.

I mentioned the Raspoutitsa in a previous post (Russia WILL lose: the question is how long it will take to admit defeat? Will he?). It amazes me that a Russian would think about launching an attack in the springtime. But Putin's being ex-KGB doesn't mean he's crafty, clever, cunning, etc.: It just means he's a thug who knows violence.

I seriously have to wonder looking at the way the war is going if the Soviet Generals in World War II were all Ukrainian.

Another intercept from #RussianArmy:

- But you guys are alright?
- Wouldn’t say so. Many “200” (dead).
- And why is your commander saying everyone is alright?
- Half of our regiment is gone…#StandWithUkraine #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianUkrainianWar #россиясмотри pic.twitter.com/kxSphPitk3

— olexander scherba🇺🇦 (@olex_scherba) March 10, 2022

The problem is that the Ukrainian people are taking the hit. Worse, the Ukrainians taking most of the hits are in the East.  That means the Russians are destroying part of the country they are claiming to save. They are literally destroying the village to save it.

I know that creating a No Fly Zone is dangerous since Putain is the insane villain with enough WMD to destroy the world several times over. This isn't Iraq where the accusations of WMD weren't real: Putain's WMD capabilities are well documented. Not to mention, there is documentation of the use of Thermobaric missiles, which are banned by international law.

There are ways to supply the Ukrainians with MANPADS and other SAMS for them to create a No Fly Zone. It's dangerous, but less dangerous than direct intervention to create the NFZ. Still, they can be supplied.

The problem is that the Ukrainian people are suffering from this. There was absolutely no reason for Russia to have invaded Ukraine. US-UK Intel should have shared Putain's intent with the world, or at least have made sure the Ukrainians were much better armed.

Still, the Ukrainian people are showing their will. But I am getting really annoyed that Russia just won't admit defeat.

Would Stepan Bandera be pro-European Union if he were alive today??

 Or if your Nazi uncle really WAS a Nazi. Actually, I do know people with real Nazi relations. I told Bettina Goering that she has both sides of the issue since not only was one relative a high level Nazi (Hermann Goering), but he assisted his brother Albert, who saved Jews. 

Stepan is more nuanced even though he is as maligned/celebrated.

I still wouldn't be a Bandera though. I prefer more inclusive. Which is where things get interesting. 

Stepan was born in Poland. Carpathea/Galacia which is home of the Hasidim as well.

Even though Stepan has closer relatives, I was born near his death: 11-12 days before. I think he knew I was an addition to the family when he was killed by a KGB agent (NEVER say I was influenced by Russians).

The issue is that he was a nationalist. His followers and associates killed those who prevented Ukrainian Statehood. Unfortunately, there is the guilt by association, or family, in all this. Even though I don't share his prejudices. 

I like think I am not prejudiced, but accept people as they are.

He wanted his identity as a Ukrainian. I am pretty certain he would accept you if you accepted him, which is what most people want.

I'm a mutt. So, I accept everyone.

I watch Brexit and see how Northern Ireland holds up the process. The Unionists want to be part of Britain, but when it comes down to things: they ultimately want to be Irish and part of the European Union. The EU was what made the Good Friday Agreement possible: even though nationalists on both sides (Republican and Unionists) hated the EU. 

One of the European Union's purpose is to promote peace. It promotes peace by making artificial borders meaningless. A country can contain multiple ethnicities and linguistic groups. 

I think he would appreciate that Ukrainians are uniting whether they speak Russian, Ukrainian, or any of the other languages/cultures comprised by Ukraine, to fight the Russians.

I have a weird feeling that if being a part of something larger protected Ukrainian identity, Stepan would have been for it as well. In fact, I think being a part of the European Union as something which would promote peace through diversity, he would be so pro-EU it would make me laugh.

Ukrainians could win war?? Ukrainians WILL win this war.

Pretty much everything I've been saying:

Why the War in Ukraine is "Different".

Well, other than a madman with a shitload of nukes is threatening to start World War III.

It's happening in Europe. Not that there hasn't been armed struggle in Europe. After all, the Balkans (Serbia, Kosovo,etc.) have been combat zones. It's that this is a huge struggle with 2 million refugees pushing west, which would be a shitload more if Ukraine were part of the European Union. That would mean the border would have been open releasing a flood of refugees.

Also, there is the unspoken guarantee by the West given when Ukraine received its independence that the West (and Russia) would guarantee that independence.

Quite frankly, Putin is showing that NATO, especially the United States, is weak.

On the other hand, the Russian forces are also pretty ineffective. The Ukrainians are capturing Russian equipment and killing generals. And that's not adding in that the troops are surrendering whenever they can.

I mentioned the leaked report by the FSB member that said:

A report thought to be by an analyst in the FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, said that the Russian dead could already number 10,000. The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged the deaths of only 498 of its soldiers in Ukraine.

The problem is that the enemy (yes, Putain is our enemy whoever you are) believes that defeat is a sign of weakness. That means he isn't giving up until all his troops are dead. Unless someone can come up with a way for him to surrender while saving face.

Unfortunately, he had lost the war before it began.

You don't need to be an expert on Ukraine to know that. You just need to have a passing knowledge of the history and the country to have seen that.

I said that Ukraine would be Biden's downfall. It also appears that it is Putain's. 

I just want it to end soon because it's like the US's "peaceful protests" except it's affecting the entire world.

A brief on some points of Ukrainian History: Ukrainian Patriotic Army, Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, etc.

By this point, people may have seen material from Russian Bots, or at least Soviet Era material about Stepan Bandera, Ukrainian Patriotic Army, Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, and the Kievan Rus. So, let's get started.

The Kievan Rus: Putin is correct in that Kyiv, or Kiev, is the birthplace of the Rus. But he needs to realise that would mean Moscow takes second place to Kyiv if he wants to be that way. He has to realise that he's been beaten by a dude who can play the piano with his penis (Volodymyr Zelensky). That should be really painful for Putain, who likes to boast about his black belt in Judo.  Hey, that shit only works in the dojo anyway.

I should add that Volodymyr Zelensky happens to be Jewish: especially since one of the reasons Russian bots give to not support Ukraine is that there are Nazis and Anti-Semites. But as the tweet shows, there are Jews in the modern Ukrainian resistance. There also were Jewish members in the OUN of Stepan Bandera's day.

Anyway...

I mention the Holodomor a lot: It means "death by hunger".  Stalin and his followers were determined to teach the Ukrainian people “a lesson they would not forget.”  Tens of thousands of Ukraine’s intellectual, spiritual, and cultural leaders were arrested, some subjected to show trials and executed, most sent to prison labor camps, often resulting in death. In June of 1933, at the height of the Holodomor, 28,000 men, women and children in Ukraine were dying of starvation each day.  The land that was known worldwide as the breadbasket of Europe was being ravaged by a man-made famine of unprecedented scale.

Next we get to the Ukrainian resistance during the pre-WWII period and beyond. The unfortunate thing is that there is the reputation for being genocidal, which is one of the reasons for Putain's invasion. The Ukrainian Army has various regiments which strongly idolise Stepan Bandera. I mentioned that Stepan Bandera is the devil incarnate for some people due to his "genocidal" urges. 

But people need to understand that Bandera was an ardent nationalist during a period of ardent nationalism. The rise of nationalism in Europe initiated with the Spring of Nations in 1848. Nationalism calls on people to identify with the interests of their national group and to support the creation of a state to support those interests. Countries like Poland and Ukraine wanted their independence. The 14-18 war started with the assassination of Prince Franz Ferdinand by a Serbian Nationalist. Extreme and violent nationalism was pretty much epidemic as the rise of the National Socialist German Workers Party demonstrated. 

After the war people who collaborated with the enemy were subjected to trials with collaborators being killed. France had its Épuration légale:

The three Épuration periods were: épuration sauvage, épuration légale, and a third phase in which suspected and guilty collaborators were treated with lenience. The first phase, épuration sauvage, produced the most brutal retribution of the three periods. The first phase took place during and immediately after the liberation of Paris on 25 August 1944. The wrath of the partisan French citizens was directed at suspected and well-known collaborators. Many people waited inside their apartments expecting to hear the dreaded knock—similar to the Gestapo and French police tactics during the Occupation. After the arrest, punishments included beatings, interrogation with torture, as well as summary executions (with or without the benefit of a “kangaroo” court). This period of time was essentially one of lawlessness and mob rule. Women suspected of having a German lover were rounded up and most had their heads shaved while some had swastikas carved into their foreheads. A second but shorter phase occurred in May and June of 1945 when the surviving deportees returned home. Newsreels of the concentration camps and the gruesome scenes contributed to another round of épuration sauvage. It was reminiscent of the week-long “September Massacre” (1792) during the French Revolution when the mobs emptied the prisons and killed many of the prisoners.

The wrath of people in occupied nations after WWII is pretty well known and went on for a while. I would also add that there were Nazi collaborators and sympathisers pretty much all over world: even in the US. As one Belgian friend said after we went to an exhibition on Belgian Resistance during WWII: "that's amusing since most Belgians were pro-Nazi..." So, Nazi sympathisers were also pretty common, but how many people get guilt tripped for driving a VW or Ford? Or remember that the US Nazi party had a rally in NYC's Madison Square Garden?

Stepan Bandera was indeed a guest of the Germans: he spent most of the war in Sachsenhausen Kz (or concentration camp). Peter Bandera provided the picture from the Auschwitz Memorial since three members of Stepan Bandera's family were in Concentration Camps. This is from the Ukrainian Crisis Media Centre:

The myth presenting the OUN (Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists) and the UPA (Ukrainian Insurgent Army) as main actors in these acts of violence, was actively exploited by the Soviet and later Russian propaganda to justify the fight that the USSR’s repressive agencies were waging against these organizations. As the myth goes, during World War II the supporters of the nationalist movement were massively killing Jews, Poles, and Russian speakers. It thus gave grounds to the Soviet intelligence and members of the security service to fight against them till the late 1950s under the pretext to not let them “massively kill”. Not only OUN members but also members of the group that had formally nothing to do with the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists were presented as “Ukrainian nationalists” by the Soviet and Russian propaganda

It is not rare to see the statements in today’s Russian media suggesting “mass killings of Jews by followers of Bandera” and that “Bandera was responsible for killings of Jews in western Ukraine”. They also claim that “Nachtigall” and “Roland” (German battalions formed of Ukrainian soldiers, which did not take part in combat actions) were among the main organizers of Holocaust in Ukraine. By mixing up these notions attempts are made to create a logical sequence in the heads of the viewers and readers suggesting that Ukrainians standing for the independent state are nationalists, while Ukrainian nationalists were killing Jews during World War II, which makes all standing for the independent Ukrainian state open or secret anti-Semites and criminals.

Mass and systematic killings of Jews during World War II in Ukraine were conducted not by Ukrainian nationalists but by Nazi troops and militarized units. These were mainly staff of security service, SS and police as well as assistant personnel.

According to an UNIAN correspondent, SBU archive representative, candidate of historical sciences Oleksander Ishchuk showed declassified documents, which provide an objective basis to state that OUN was not connected with violent actions against the civil population of Lviv in July 1941. According to Mr. Ishchuk, the declassified documents of SBU indicate that on July 4-7 of 1941, representatives of Gestapo, who arrived in Lviv, turned to Ukrainian circles with demand to carry out a three-day massacre of Jews. “The OUN leadership, having got to know about that, informed its members that it was a German provocation in order to compromise Ukrainians with massacres”, the document reads. Mr. Ishchuk highlighted that “The SBU documents confirm that OUN members were trying to avoid taking part in actions against the Jewish population in Lviv, there were no official instructions on this issue”

Cases are known when Bandera supporters in Central and Eastern Ukraine were giving false passports to the Jews or were even hiding them from the Germans. Among those who saved the Jews during World War II there were OUN members including the wife of Roman Shukhevych, UPA chief commander, Natalia as well as the priest Omelyan Kovch (OUN member since 1930s). 

Samuel Drix in Witness to Annihilation: Surviving the Holocaust a Memoir (ISBN 978-0028810874) said this about Stepan's cousin, Osip: "Engineer Bandera was not anti-Semitic as far as I could tell. He seemed to me a very decent person, and he had respect for doctors." I would add that technically Stepan was Polish since he was born in the Lviv (Lwow) Oblast. Not to mention he was sitting in Sachsenhausen as a guest of the Nazis for a good portion of the war. 

Note that the Swastika is underfoot

Thus, despite the military cooperation with Germany OUN(b) was pursuing their own political line that the Nazi were not aware of. A good example of such behavior was Declaration of Ukrainian State Act of June 30, 1941 in Lviv. It came as a surprise for Hitler’s supporters as independent Ukraine was never part of the Third Reich’s plans. On July 5, 1941 the Nazis arrested Bandera. And then on July 9,  the head of the newly established government, Yaroslav Stetsko.

The OUN intended to take advantage of the retreat of Soviet forces from Ukraine with the Declaration of State Act. Some members thought that they had found a new powerful ally in Nazi Germany to aid them in their struggle against the Soviet Union. Days after the Nazi invasion of Lviv, however, the leadership of the newly formed government was arrested and sent to concentration camps in Germany. Within two years of the declaration, the Nazis had imprisoned or killed 80% of OUN-B leadership.

It may not be correct to try and justify killing: On the other hand, this was a very violent period where collaborators often met violent ends, as did people in the resistance. There were Jewish Revenge Squads that sought out Nazis and killed them without a trial.

Anyway, the Ukrainians have been working for an independent nation for a while now, but the Russians want to make sure they remain puppets the same way that Belarus is. The reality is that Ukraine is an independent nation, which is guaranteed by the 1994 Budapest Agreement. And that is the goal of Ukrainian nationalists: an independent Ukraine.

See also:

• The Holdomor Resource Library
• The hacked swastika info-op that reinforced antisemitic stereotypes about Ukraine
  
• Declaration of State Act 30 Jun 1940 
•  SBU declassifies documents proving OUN-UPA not connected with anti-Jewish actions
• Smear and Loathing: A Close Look at Accusations of Ukrainian Anti-Semitism 
• History of OUN-UPA: the Bandera controversy that eclipsed 200,000 people who fought for the independence of Ukraine
•  Historian Andrey Zubov: Banderites are an example of the great lie of the Soviet system
•  A few words for Christopher Miller about “Banderites” and Ukrainian history
  
• 10 Myths about the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) 
• 10 myths about the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). Myth #3: Bandera and Ukrainian nationalists were agents of the Nazi special services
  
• 10 myths about the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA). Myth #5: Ukrainian nationalists were massively killing Jews during World War II, especially in Lviv and in Babyn Yar
• The Ukrainian Insurgent Army — Inside One of WW2’s Strangest Resistance Movements
  
• CIA‘s Use of Nazi Strategy on Ukrainian Right-Wing Nationalists Unabated since Cold War  
• Yizkor.org Sepher Stryj- Chapters 2 & 3 
• Jewish Revenge Squads 
•  Ukraine got a signed commitment in 1994 to ensure its security – but can the US and allies stop Putin’s aggression now?
• American Nazism and Madison Square Garden
  

Russia WILL lose: the question is how long it will take to admit defeat? Will he?

Adam Casey made this comment about the FSB and FSB troops which pretty much cements for me that its only a matter of time, and lives, before the Russians are defeated by the Ukrainians. The FSB is corrupt, which means it isn't really loyal. A corrupt service can be bought off: especially if it means they get to live.

People try to fit this into the framework of past wars: usually people with no military experience. Yes, there is a war which this fits into: the Winter War between Russia and Finland of 39-40. It didn't go well for Russia.

Let's toss in that the Russians started their war in Ukraine's mud season. Rasputitsa is a Russian term for two seasons of the year, spring and autumn, when travel on unpaved roads or across country becomes difficult. Rasputitsa are well known as a great defensive advantage in wartime. Common nicknames include General Mud and Marshal Mud. A spring thaw probably saved Novgorod from conquest and sacking during the 13th-century Mongol invasion. During the French invasion of Russia in 1812, Napoleon found the mud a great hindrance. The months-long muddy period slowed the German advance on the Eastern Front during the Second World War. It was particularly important during the Battle of Moscow (October 1941 to January 1942) and may have helped save the Soviet capital from German occupation.

Ukraine is the poorest nation in Europe with the infrastructure to go with that. There are rumours that mud and poor maintenance are reasons for Russian tanks stalling.

Of course, you would think a Russian officer would know that, but...

Getting back to the starting proposition, the Times (UK) has published an article by an FSB whistleblower who is hinting that Russian dead could already be over 10,000. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/this-war-will-be-a-total-failure-fsb-whistleblower-says-wl2gtdl9m and https://truepublica.org.uk/global/fsb-whistleblower-this-war-will-be-a-total-failure/

The FSB whistleblower went on to say that – “By and large, though, Russia has no way out. There are no options for a possible victory, only defeat.”

https://www.ploughshares.org/world-nuclear-stockpile-report

In looking at Putin’s strategy, experienced commentators such as retired senior military officers mostly agree that the war is unwinnable. Right now approximately 70 per cent of Russia’s mobile military units are in full operation. Indeed, even if Putin was able to declare victory by taking Kyiv, other major cities and ports, it’s an unmistakable fact that Ukraine is the largest country in continental Europe with the exception of Russia itself. Attempting to control well over 40 million hostile citizens in a landmass that’s a fifth larger than France would take unbelievable resources that Russia simply does not have.

It is estimated that not including supply and logistics, well over 500,000 troops would be needed to control Ukraine.

The Soviets invaded under the miconception that they would be greeted as "liberators". Once the Russians realised that there would be resistance, the Russian army is trying to pound cities into submission with rockets, bombs, and artillery. All that is counterproductive to their strategy since they are destroying the people and places they claim to be saving, which is something that is lost in the Western media.

The problem is that Putin sees admitting defeat as weakness. He has also hinted at a willingness to use nuclear weapons without any real provocation. No matter what the scenario, the Russians continue to face stiff resistance they could even decide to go nuclear. In their armory are short-range tactical nuclear weapons that would devastate infrastructure and buildings.

This isn't Hitler. Or Saddam Hussein. It is the real madman sitting on enough nuclear weapons to wipe out the planet several times over. That is a verifiable fact.

Americans shit their pants when a few buildings get wiped out: what are they going to do when a couple of cities are vapourised?

There are ways to support Ukraine without actually "getting invovled", especially since Ukrainians are known to fight hard: even without outside support. The Vietnamese had the Ho Chi Minh Trail. And The Ukrainians have a reputation for a porous border between them and the EU. 

Any modern war will be asymetric, meaning a guerilla war where the larger foe is worn down. Not that it's that modern a strategy: it's how the US gained its independence. The modern twist is having weapons which can destroy a resisting citizenry. Of course, as I keep pointing out, Russia is killing and destroying the people it is claiming to save. They are destroying the village to save it.

That's what makes this war very scary since to old paradigms no longer apply. It's the horror film.

ADDITION: I am seeing tweets saying that the Pentagon is reporting that 100% of the Russian troops mobilised for this operation have been deployed. That says to me that the Russians have over-extended their resources.

Sources:

• The Lesson of Sarajevo — Putin Can’t Win 
• Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Was a Dumb Move
  
• Plougshares Fund: Nuclear Stockpiles.

I guess I shouldn't be surprised that US opinion about Ukraine is now "fraying"

 I should be surprised any interest has lasted as many news cycles as this has. I have too many reasons to care.

And Trump wasn't the start. The US has a history of being isolationist. I am of the opinion that it would have been neutral in both World Wars had US interests not been attacked (Lusitania and Pearl Harbour). The video is in French, but it gives a good rundown on US isolationism and other reasons for inactivity now.

I support Ukraine, but it is foolish for any direct action unless Putain is mad enough to attack a NATO nation. But there are a lot of things one can do that are not "direct military intervention". Supplying arms is one of them. Part joke: I tweeted to Shannon Watt that the US could encourage donating "assault weapons" to the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have always been good at using captured weapons against conquerors: German and Russian. 

(sorry I took a twitter break to see how the war is going. Ukrainians are kicking ass, but taking a lot of civilian casualties)

OK, Ukraine can do well without too much help from outside, but they need outside help. On the other hand, the Russians do intend on ending US's role as a "Superpower" (see this: https://fak.medium.com/the-russian-offensive-and-the-new-world-1220461b3bfb). Divisions in US aid to Ukraine only hasten the fall of the US in terms of its prestige in the world.

"The New American Century" may end up meaning a return to what it was before the 20th Century: a Western Hemisphere backwater.