Angry White House Staffer on Russia's failure.

From a twitter thread:
 

Several folks have asked me when Russia is going to deploy their “good troops,” so I feel like I need to offer a brief explainer.

I know it’s hard to believe, but these *are* their good troops.

After three weeks, we’re still seeing the narrative that they’re holding back. 

 

This flat-out isn’t true. We’ve seen VDV (airborne), various troops from the Spetsnaz umbrella, etc.

They’ve also launched over 1,000 missiles into Ukraine.

The only thing they’re holding back (so far) is chemical and nuclear weapons.


They just aren’t very good at this. 

 

Remember, the US had the unfortunate experience of over two decades at war to learn from our mistakes and refine tactics for the modern battlefield.

Russia is learning in blood that integrating air, sea, and ground forces in a single assault isn’t as easy as we make it look. 

There are a lot of reasons why this war is a failure for Russia. The major one, which is one a lot of people miss in the West, is that Ukraine is a very separate nation from Russia. This is true no matter what one's nationality happens to be. This video is a protest in Russian occupied Ivanivka, Kherson region, south Ukraine where local residents held a rally in protest of the Russian occupation of the town.

No, Ukraine is not part of Russia and does not want to be part of Russia. People who love freedom should appreciate this difference.

 

OK, I'm not sure if I should revisit my comment about the Second Amendment & UA, or something else.

I can do both actually. 

The Second Amendment fallacy still applies. The Ukrainians were and are much better armed than I had expected at the start of this war. They did have the proper defence systems to counter the Orc (Russian) attack. Additionally, the Ukrainian forces followed historic trends and either captured or destroyed enemy equipment.

But, they didn't just have small arms to defend the nation. Otherwise, this would be a vastly different and scarier war for the West. Russian intentions do not stop at Ukraine's borders. Sadly, people in the West were far too willing to appease Putin while pretending not to. Political theatre at its worst.

My transition: A friend's brother was killed in the war. I don't know about my relations who are fighting. I hope they are doing well. I am not certain of the numbers, but I know that Ukraine is doing much better than Russia.

The something else: too many people outside of Ukraine don't understand they are a different country. I understand it because I understand the cultural nuaces that make nations different from each other. Also, I have relations who will tell you in no uncertain terms what your misconceptions are.

I made a statement that Ukraine was flat to a Ukrainian cousin when I was younger. She pulled out a topographic map to show me that the West was in the Carpathian mountains. Likewise, they will point out that Ukrainian culture isn't at all like Russian culture. You would think that Americans would understand that.

But the something else I want to mention is that quite a few people outside Ukraine are parroting the Russian line that Ukraine is somehow "part of Russia". 

Not at all.

That is historical and cultural ignorance based on superficial knowledge. Unfortunately, I find that ignorance is endemic in the West, particularly in the US. I was unaware that there was a Bipartisan Congressional Ukraine Caucus in the US legislature and has been since 1997. I would think that caucus would be much more vocal about the issues in this war.

Additionally, there are a lot of people who have relatives who were DPs post-WWII. I am amazed they are not more vocal about what is going on. Perhaps because most of those people are "boomers" or their parents.

People need to understand that the West allowing Russia of occupy Crimea was only the start. The War in Ukraine is only a stepping stone to a war that will soon come to the West.

When will the War in Ukraine end?

I'm feeling good that people are pointing out Putain is insane. Sane people do not start wars on peaceful nations for fake reasons and continue those wars when they prove pointless.

OK, I can see why people might miss Putain is nuts.

Anyway, I am now hearing there IS a power struggle in the Kremlin. Although my source hasn't seen any confirmation in the media. Not sure if that no stories in the media mean very much though since there is a lot of information which is missing in the media about the Ukraine War.

So, people keep suffering and dying.

Guess What? There is a war going on!

I have to be amused at the ignorance of most people in regard to this situation. I don't know a lot, but I know a lot more than most of the people making pronouncements in the media. Let's start with the Cato Institute's ignorance of the situation.

First off, there was an agreement made at Budapest in 1994 that Ukraine would give up a rather large stockpile of nuclear weapons in exchange for its neutrality being guaranteed by the US, UK, and Russia. Ukraine's neutrality under this treaty is one of the missing factors in all this.

But even better, the arms sales that probably caused this war weren't to Ukraine. 

Nope, they were to Russia! There has been an Arms Embargo by the European Union since 31 July 2014 (Council Decision 2014/512/CFSP). This decision followed the annexation of Crimea and the proclamation of the Donbas separatist republics. Unfortunately, that document is very easily bypassed.  Official data shows that the arms trade continued with military equipment. From between 2015 and 2020, at least 10 EU member states have exported a total of €346 million worth of arms to Russia.s. France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Finland, Slovakia and Spain.

If anything, arms sales to Ukraine were what kept Russia from taking over. On the other hand, Charles Koch, was one of the founders of Cato. I believe the Koch family makes no secret that they made their money by helping Stalin build his petroleum industry. Then the Kochs went on to promote "right wing causes". Additionally, the Kochs are still doing business with Russia, which makes most of its money selling fossil fuels.

As Ambrose Bierce said ,

“Patriotism, n. Combustible rubbish ready to the torch of any one ambitious to illuminate his name. In Dr. Johnson's famous dictionary patriotism is defined as the last resort of a scoundrel. With all due respect to an enlightened but inferior lexicographer I beg to submit it is the first.”

Of course, all that is a small sample of the pandering to Putain. It's amazing that even though he is publicly called a pariah: there has been a lot of support from the West and western governments.

For those who want to sit on the sideline, they need to realise that Russia will continue its belligerant posturing. People in the Baltic States are aware of this and are also asking for a no fly zone.

I have mixed feelings about a no fly zone. It would be nice. On the other hand, there is the madman with enough nuclear weapons to end the world waging a war on a small country. It is indeed fantasy to think he will stop at Ukraine. it's also a fantasy to think he will not make a first nuclear strike for no reason.

After all, Putain started this war for no reason other than he saw western weakness and appeasement.

So, no. It isn't the West that is pushing former Soviet States to want to join NATO. It's Russian aggression. And it is Ukraine that is fighting on its own to try and remain free. Ukraine is doing a super job since it knows what the alternative is to losing this war.

Some people in the West need to appreciate that. It can make sure Ukraine is supplied to fight for the rest of the world. The West can also make sure that countries like Russia and China are kept from the world economy.

But, there already is a war going on. Are you waiting for it to come to your home?

See also:

• EU member states exported weapons to Russia after the 2014 embargo

Spotting Russian fakes of Ukrainian documents

It's actually really easy, but you need to speak Ukrainian, or Russian. And some Ukrainians speak both.

On the other hand, Official Ukrainian documents are in Ukrainian since that is the official language. A simple example will give you an idea of the difference. This is "you are welcome". The phrase on the top is Ukrainian and the bottom is Russian.

Нема за що! (Nema za shcho!)

Не за что! (Ne za chto!)

Now, one way that people who have shown that the documents saying there are Biolabs are fake is that the documents produced to demonstrate that are in Russian. The difference is like that between Swedish and Danish: someone who isn't familiar will not notice too much of a difference. But someone who knows the languages will spot them immediately.[1]

Also, machine translators will "burp" if you can get a transcription of the document and try and translate it in the wrong language. Parts will be total jibberish if it isn't translated correctly. Here are some examples:

As I have mentioned in a couple of posts: Ukrainian is closer to Polish than Russian. The major difference between Polish and Ukrainian is the alphabet. Russian is different from Ukrainian.

So, yeah, I believe someone when they tell me the documents are fake: especially when the ones they show me are written in Russian! 

And people in the US think these clowns could mess up their elections. 

паляниця, і до побачення ! [2]

 Footnotes:
[1] I know this from watching Nordic Noir.

[2] Don't tell me I don't know what I am talking about if you don't understand this.

RUSSIANS GO FULL RUSSIAGATE--BLAME RUSSIANS FOR FAILURE IN UKRAINE

You think I'm kidding? Here's Mad Vlad going full Hillary Clinton (and her followers) blaming everyone and everything except himself for the mess in Ukraine:

And we finally have proof the dude is indeed a whackjob. It seems he replaced his entire staff of close employees, around 1000 people as well. Neat theory that his paranoia is due to steroid use to keep up his macho figure. That story here:
https://www.insideedition.com/fearing-poisoning-vladimir-putin-replaces-1000-of-his-personal-staff-73847

I guess the upshot is that like Hillary Clinton, Mad Vlad, is not going away soon: no matter how much people might want him to.

Also, I guess he believed his own BS. Here is an old Russian warmongering video on how quickly they can conquer Europe and the world with their army. As comment said: "There was one problem: on the way happened to be the Sumy territorial defence." I'm going to toss in Ukrainian farmers. Seriously, the Russians hit far more resistance then they expected.

One thing that is getting scary is that the Right likes Putain. The theory is that he is a strongman who appeals to their sense of authoritarianism. The result is that we hear a lot of people on the right parroting Russian bullshit. I'm not going to give those people any more publicity than they all ready have by being whackjobs.

Of course, parroting Russian bullshit isn't solely a quality of the right, but fewer people are doing it on the left. But the lefties doing it are really disappointing. I guess that is a by-product of having crappy media: people are getting their news and opinion from comedians. And just about everybody else.

There are a lot of reasons that a large military gets defeated by a smaller one which is another post. But a quick summary from a tweet from the New Voice of Ukraine:

"Russia is losing in Ukraine. Bad tactics, crap equipment, and inexperienced troops suffering low morale fighting in a country which they're quickly realizing is not theirs is a recipe for military disaster."

There is a longer story that goes to the tweet: https://english.nv.ua/opinion/decision-time-for-putin-opinion-50225836.html

As I said, Mad Vlad is blaming everybody and everything except himself for his failures. He's literally blaming the Russian people for this mess!

And people in the US think this guy could subvert their elections! He can't really run his own country, let alone mess up another one: unless he does it by sending his military.

Peace in Ukraine? Russian Aggression stops in Ukraine!

You would imagine that Russia would be ready to call it quits and surrender by now, but...

The International Criminal Court has ruled that:

• "The Court is acutely aware of the extent of the human tragedy that is taking place in Ukraine...The Court is profoundly concerned about the use of force by the Russian Federation in Ukraine, which raises very serious issues of international law," presiding judge Joan Donoghue wrote in the ruling.
• Russia "shall immediately suspend the military operations commenced on 24 February 2022 that have as their stated purpose and objective the prevention and punishment of a claimed genocide in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts of Ukraine," the ruling stated.

That means that in addition to having been beaten militarily, the invasion and subsequent war are illegal according to international law. Of course, this ruling is unenforceable short of a world wide military action on Russia. 

On the other hand, sanctions are doing a great job of crippling the Russian economy. But that hasn't caused the next Russian Revolution. Yet. I am amazed the Military and FSB haven't revolted.

Russia really isn't in a position to bargain for peace, but the Russian government is acting like it holds the upper hand. As I said, these people aren't rational. Putain wants to revive the Russian Empires of old, but he has only crippled the country with his adventurism.

Any peace will have to come with what Łukasz Adamski describes as "Deputinisation" which will be enforced.

Unfortunately, Ukraine is paying for Russian aggression and Western weakness and diplomatic failure. The west could have taken action much earlier, but failed to do so.

OK, I have Ukrainian heritage--of course, I'm concerned.

As I like to say, I'm European if we are going into where my ancestors came from: Pretty much the map of EU members with the exception of Portugal and Spain. So...

A little more of Lesia Vasylenko:

I personally would have thought this would have ended a while back, but the Black Knight analogy is indeed a good one for the Russians.  According to the Ukrainian Defence Ministry 40% of  the Russian units that invaded Ukraine during the past weeks were destroyed or defeated.  Despite that Russia is forming and sending in new Units. The Ukrainians are promising that those units will meet the same fate as the ones before them. 

While the Defence Ministry says "Ukraine is invincible", I am still worried that Putain is a madman. And a cornered one at that.

I had to laugh when I saw the headline in L'Obs asking if "Putain was a dictator?"

Seriously?

Fuck yeah, he is!

I agree with Oleksiy Sorokin who says "Listening to Lavrov talking about “a possible compromise,” after Russia killed what looks like tens of thousands of people, I don’t see Ukraine accepting anything less than Russian withdrawal from Donbas, including Donetsk & Luhansk. There’s no middle ground anymore."

And an unnamed Ukrainian negotiator says, "Ukraine could agree to what Russians call "neutral status" but according to the Ukrainian model. That means legally verified security guarantees: in case of war signatories provide weapons and air defense immediately without bureaucratic procedures or conditions,"

Personally, I think Russia needs to be taught a lesson that its aggression doesn't pay off.

Time to mention yet another Ukrainian woman. This one is Oleksandra Kuvshynova, Her Fox News ID listed her as being a "Producer." According to the people on the ground she was what is called a "Fixer", or a local who helps the News Crews navigate the landscape: especially in dangerous areas.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/ukrainian-journalist-oleksandra-kuvshinova-killed-attack

EDIT Fox News wasn't mentioning that she was killed along with their other correspondent, so I will. Fox News said they delayed announcing her death "out of respect for her family".

Not sure what to say after that other than that I hope Fox News changes their bias on Ukraine prestement.

And you wonder why I want this war to end soon, but I want Russia to pay for the devastation its aggression has caused Ukraine. Russia can't get off easily for this act of aggression against its neutal neighbour.

Just in case you want to know more of what is happening:
https://english.nv.ua/nation/day-21-of-putin-s-war-russians-attack-kyiv-zaporizhzhia-vinnytsia-odesa-shore-50225446.html

And a parting word for those of you who want to believe Russian sources, or just want to see Ukrainian resolve:

Do we really want to gamble that Putain won't use nuclear weapons?

 Gary Kasperov has a tweet where he argues like a chess player about this situation. https://twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1503819568879394822

A chess player isn't who I would listen to in this situation. I would want the opinion of a high stakes poker player. Especially since Putain should have folded long ago. 

Chess is logical. It has rules and defined moves. It's hard to cheat in Chess.

Unless someone overturns the chess board.

Poker is a different thing. Bluffing and cheating are commonplace. Toss in the pieces aren't sitting on a board. 

One can argue that war is like chess. Ok, it's a game of strategy in the battlefield, but there is a whole lot more involved than just fighting battles. There are politics, diplomacy, weather, logistics, intelligence, and a whole lot more to consider.

The Baedeker raids happened despite British Intelligence knowing they would occur because they didn't want to give up Enigma. Generals and leaders make decisions that cost lives.

Sure, Putain's Generals MIGHT not follow the order to fire a nuclear weapon, but we have seen that the Russian soldiers are going into a losing battle. Assume also that some of them knew of FSB's advice not to invade Ukraine and you see where this is going.

Another consideration: where would Putain use a nuclear weapon? He's already destroyed a couple of cities: Mariupol and Volnovakha. He's destroying the people he claims to be saving. The reality is that this action is more retribution toward a wayward people than anything else.

So, a first strike could be on a Ukrainian city. The same way Nuclear Weapons were used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The reasoning behind those cities being destroyed was to save lives. Russian forces are being crushed by Ukrainian forces.

I've learned that one cannot reason with unreasonable people. Unreasonable means not logical and they don't follow rules. Putain is crazy and has shown that by starting this war against the advice of the FSB. Still, the Generals and troops still invade against the FSB recommendation. 

Loyal people do stupid things. And someone who is loyal enough will indeed launch a weapon. It's also a whole lot easier to set off a nuclear weapon than most people would like to think. Not many people know about Black Saturday, 27 Oct 1962, Cuban Missile crisis. 

The USS Randolph had detected the Soviet submarine B-59  near Cuba. The destroyer, USS Cony [DD-508] was sent to investigate. Following standard procedure for the Navy during those cold war encounters, the destroyer dropped small, practice depth charges such as those used in training. Those held small amounts of explosives and were not designed to cause damage. The purpose of the small depth charges was to force the diesel submarine to the surface for positive identification. However, B-59 had been submerged for some time with its air conditioning system out and with no source of fresh air. The captain and the crew were exhausted and suffering from oxygen deprivation. There had been no radio contact with Moscow since they submerged and they did not know if war had started. With the submarine’s condition bad and deteriorating, the commander, Captain Valentin Savitsky, ordered his crew to arm its nuclear torpedo and get ready to launch it at the Cony. 

Fortunately, things turned out well, during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Although, the example of a Submarine armed with nuclear weapons is one of Nigel Calder's nuclear nightmares. As I said, it's a lot easier to set off a nuclear weapon than most people want to believe.

Nuclear weapons are no longer the size of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The "suitcase nuke" is not just something from Frederick Forsyth's Fourth Protocol. They are part of the family called tactical nuclear weapons, which are a part of the Russian nuclear arsenal. They are small enough they can be delivered by artillery shell.

Is having a Ukrainian city destroyed by a nuclear weapon a gamble someone wants to take? 

Russia is the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail

They are being pounded, yet will not give up.

And the whole thing is stagnating. The plan to take Kyiv in 3 hours backfired bigtime for the Russians. In fact, It is looking increasingly likely, that Ukraine will be able to prevent Russian army in the North, from EVER encircling Kyiv. The battle seems to be lost to Russia.

Russian invasion planners fucked up royally by placing all their fuel trucks in one basket in that 40 mile convoy. Ukraine played it brilliantly, by blocking that convoy before it reached Hostomel.

Not that the Russians being pinned down makes the situation in any way safe or quiet. The Russians still have artillery and missiles that they lob onto the civillian population daily. The cities in the East are occupied, but there is resistance both armed and unarmed by the Ukrainians to the Russian invasion.

Unlike what happened in the Crimea, the Ukrainians have far more cell phones and are documenting the occupation. Not sure to say whether the Ukrainian resistance is high-tech or low-tech. It's a mixture of the two. Whatever the case, the myth of Russian superiority is being trashed daily.

There are a lot of reasons for this, but "Red Dawn" is turning out to be a Cold War fantasy. One of the reasons Hitler and the Nazis could occupy as much of Europe as they did was collaboration in the occupied territories. Unfortunately, they didn't have the technology to document what was going on then.

I think the big take away from this War is that a small group of armed people can disturb the lives of a lot of people for as long as that small group exists.

The only way to get peace in Ukraine is if Russia is defeated and decomposed once and for all. It cannot be allowed to become an Empire of any sort again.

Uh Oh! People in the US should be careful talking about WMD and Chemical Weapons

I just received something from the Arms Control Association telling me about United States stockpiles of chemical weapons:

When the United States ratified the CWC on April 25th, 1997, it accepted the treaty mandate to eliminate its chemical weapons stockpile and related facilities completely and verifiably by April 29, 2007, with the possibility of a five-year extension until 2012.

But both the 2007 and 2012 deadlines proved to be severe underestimates of the time and effort needed to safely demilitarize all nine declared U.S. chemical weapons stockpiles. The United States requested and received two additional deadline extensions from the international chemical weapons watchdog, the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

Now, the United States is pushing hard to finish destroying the last vestiges of its once-massive Cold War-era chemical weapons stockpile by Sept. 30, 2023.

You can read this report here: https://www.armscontrol.org/issue-briefs/2022-03/final-push-us-chemical-weapons-demilitarization

People in the US might want to start worrying.

Wait until the US Gun Nuts see this....

An open top BMW 6 series with a NSV 12,7x108 heavy machine gun mounted - is not something you see everyday.

 

From the Ukraine Weapons Tracker https://twitter.com/UAWeapons

Ukraine War: No news is good news--sort of.

According to the people on the ground, it means the Russians are stalled. There are still strikes, but there isn't significant action for the most part. The Russians are holding what little territory they have. 

So, let's talk about the numbers. Because I will admit that they sound very optimistic:

The numbers do sound very inflated given that Ukraine's army is pretty small, while Russia's is large and well funded. The Official Ukrainian statement on this (translated from the Telegram post to the left):

Operational Armed Forces During the fighting on the territory of Ukraine, the enemy army lost more than 30% of its composition. This was stated by Adviser to the Head of the President's Office Oleksiy Arestovych on the UA Together TV Marathon. "They are dying, hundreds are dying. Near Mariupol, exactly 250 people were killed and more than 700 were injured. Losses are definitely growing, about 500-1000 every day, but it is difficult to calculate. There are 14,000 to 15,000 for sure, but more than 12,000 are cautious, ”Arestovych said.

According to the Ukrainians, those numbers are conservative!

I thought I made a comment that Putain had lost the War the moment he began his invasion.

The fact that Russian positions are fairly stagnant, instead of the predicted blitzkrieg, pretty much underlines that.

I know a lot of Ukrainians would like to see a no fly zone created over Ukraine. The reality is that Ukrainian air defences are good, not great, at protecting against most airstrikes. NATO doesn't need to provide aircraft. It just needs to make sure Ukrainians are supplied with airdefence weapons to continue.

Yes, the Ukrainians are keeping up the OUN-UPA tradition of using captured enemy equipment, but there is the issue with the condition of the captured equipment. The Ukrainians are using what is servicable.

The Russians are hurting, but the war will not end until Putain, or his succesor, surrenders with the terms that the Ukrainians will remain free and independent. Additionally, the Russians are going to have to pay for their war.

The armistice will not go well for Russia.

I also have a feeling that the West, and China, will probably demand that Russia demilitarises. I hope that this isn't done in the same manner that German was disarmed after the 14-18 war.

The bottom line, there isn't peace in Ukraine. Putain is in a very bad position, which is a scary proposition since he is indeed the madman with WMD. I wish NATO would come to Ukraine's aid to end this quickly, but the reality is Ukraine is on its own.

A good article on one of Russia's mistakes in starting this War.

https://ukraineworld.org/articles/ukraine-explained/putin-misread-ukraine

See also:

• Putin's Worsening Problems
• The Threat from the East: Central-Eastern European Voices Finally Heard
  

Ukrainian biolabs and NeoNazis

 

Oh, man! Where to start here?

First off, I wonder why people talking about this stuff don't mention Chernobyl. In fact, it might be worth a refresher given that these two other issues are somehow filling the 'net.

The Chernobyl disaster was a nuclear accident that occurred on 26 April 1986 at the No. 4 reactor in the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, near the city of Pripyat in the north of the Ukrainian SSR in the Soviet Union. It is considered the worst nuclear disaster in history both in cost and casualties.

Chernobyl is sitting firmly in Russian controlled territory as is the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station. The latter is the largest reactor in Europe, and 10th largest in the world. IAEA is unable to monitor these reactors.

Official UA Gov't statement

Ask a Ukrainian about the biolabs or NeoNazis and they will tell you that the reactors are far more problematic. Fortunately:

"Ukrainian energy workers, by risking their own health and lives, were able to avert the risk of a possible nuclear catastrophe that threatened the whole Europe," https://t.me/energoatom_ua/3001

As for bio-labs: Victoria Nuland is yet another example of Biden administration incompetence.  Read her bio, especially her comments about the European Union in 2014, and one has to wonder HOW she ever got her current position. My outspokeness is one reason I am not in either politics or diplomacy. At least I know my weaknesses.

There is a good commentary about Biolabs by Dr. Robert Malone here:

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2022/03/12/ukraine-biolab-watchtower/

Anything I say would come from that, except I will quote him:

What a mess. Are there any grownups in the house?  This is what happens in a world in which no one trusts anyone anymore, integrity is treated as an obsolete concept, both information and legacy media have become weaponized to such an extent that what passes for official reality becomes just a funhouse hall of mirrors, and the experience, intellect and maturity of those entrusted to manage these matters is just not up to the task.

That pretty much sums up the situation of bio-labs since anyone with a speck of knowledge of this issue can tell you that while you may want to think the worst, this is indeed a lot more innocent than you want it to be.

So, you want to trust the Russians who actually possess WMDs that the Ukrainians are doing "biological research" because the US government lied about Saddam Hussein having WMD?

Yeah, right. 

My advice: steer clear of living near any research university with a medical facility.

Neo-Nazis get much more interesting, especially for me. 

Amusing how Ukraine's defence has become an issue in US politics, especially that part, since as I posted about this issue during the Trump Impeachment relating to Ukraine. Trump Derangement Syndrome blinded people to this issue then (no discussion, or it was like Hunter's laptop). Somehow, it becomes an issue when the issue is funding Ukraine's defence in wartime.

Official Statement from Azov Brigade

And it's why I get pissed when people want to bring US Partisan politics up now. 

Just shut the fuck up and do something significant to help Ukraine.

Anyway, yes, those troops existed. Not sure what their status is now since they could have been killed off early in the fighting. As I said in my earlier posts, these Neo-Nazi units were among the ones fighting in the Donbass. That means they would have been on the front when the Russians rolled into that area. I know that one of their leaders was killed long ago. They like to believe that they are keeping up the ideology of Stepan Bandera.

One of the issues with Stepan Bandera is that he has been dead for 62 years. His direct descendants live in Canada. He has become a myth in Ukrainian society.

Translation difficulties: RU is "Azov Base"

As I said in my other Stepan Bandera posts, he did not support racism the way some people claiming to follow his ideology do:

HOPPE: Would you be so kind, Mr. BANDERA, as to explain in detail the conception “Ukrainian nationalism”?

BANDERA: Today the anti-Bolshevik liberation fight in Ukraine is organized and led by OUN, the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists. The conceptions “Ukrainian nationalist,” “nationalistic movement,” differ from similar terms used in the West. The Ukrainian nationalistic movement has nothing in common with Nazism, fascism or national-socialism. Ukrainian nationalism is fighting against totalitarianism, racism, dictatorship and violence of any kind.

Source: https://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/12/from-cia-archives-stepan-banderas-1954-interview-to-german-radio/ 

And the Bandera clan has Poles and Jews in it as well. And it had them back when he was alive. So....

The neo-Nazi, pseudonationalist organisations have nothing in common with what the OUN-UPA stood for, or Stepan Bandera and his followers were fighting for. I've listed resources for this in other posts.

I would add that the far right groups are not a large segment in Ukrainian politics, and they will most likely become even less of one after the war. https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/.premium-the-far-right-just-got-humiliated-in-ukraine-s-election-but-don-t-write-it-off-1.7563138

The OUN-UPA has more in common with the current War in Ukraine. Ukrainians of other nationalities  fought in the UPA ranks, including Georgians, Azerbaijanis, Tatars, Belgians, Russians, and others. Likewise, Ukrainians of all ethnicities are once again fighting to keep their homeland free from being overwhelmed by the Russian Empire.

Bottom line, if you aren't more concerned that two large nuclear reactors are in the hands of the Russians and not being monitored by international authorities, then I really can't persuade you of very much. That is the real issue, not biolabs or neo-nazis.

See also:

• A few words for Christopher Miller about “Banderites” and Ukrainian history
• From CIA archives: Stepan Bandera’s 1954 interview to German radio

No Vladimir Putain is not sane.

 Once again, I wake up to see that the Ukraine war is not over, but it's spreading.

That's bad news for Russia. Especially since the rest of the world sees that Russia is losing badly. Unfortunately, Ukraine is also being destroyed in the process. It will cost quite a bit to rebuild Ukraine when all this is over.

The Russian economy is collapsing due to economic isolation from the west. It has significant gold reserves, but can't sell gold for a bunch of reasons. The current sanctions target money inside Russias’s foreign exchange reserves. But those holdings in EUR and USD are frozen. And for the people who think gold and currency based money are a good thing. Well, the gold market is simply not very liquid. Never in history did the aggregated sales of all central banks (CBs) exceed 400 tons in a year. And when that happened, gold market participants were already accusing CBs of “market manipulation”. Gold only has value, if “gold whales” (i.e., the central banks) aren’t selling it. 

While Russia has 2000t of gold. There is just absolutely no way Russia could sell more than 5-10% of its gold reserves within like a month. If Russia was starting to sell, prices would plummet, as there is simply very little market depth in the gold market.  Compare that to FIAT currency which is backed by a solvent central bank. 

Case in point, the US Treasury bond (UST) market has basically infinite market depth, which was proven in March 2020. If the value of USTs falls below future cash flows become discounted, the Fed will step in. See: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499339625671938052.html  

Aside: And cryptocurrency: who is backing that? Seriously, you're fucked if someone starts dumping cryptocurrency since it isn't backed by much of anything other than the "block-chain".  

The bottom line is that this war hasn't been working to Putain's plan: militarily or economically. The longer he holds out, the worse the outcome for both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is physically ruined and Russia is economically ruined.  While Ukraine can rebuild, it won't be too long before Russia collapses...Again.

A Chinese observer gives a good reason for stronger involvement from the West:

The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia’s military power is no match for NATO’s, would be even worse for Putin.

The hope is that Putain is rational, but the current situation demonstrates he is not. I know that at least Lithuania is on an alert status. I would also guess that Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and Romania are as well. Those countries are NATO members and an attack on them would trigger NATO involvement.

The longer this lasts, the worse the outcome for everyone--worldwide.

One more comment (adding). Kyiv Independent reports:

⚡️Defense Ministry: Number of Russian casualties hasn't changed for days due to slower offensive.

The official data showing over 12,000 Russian troops killed hasn’t change since March 8 because of decreased confrontation, according to Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 13, 2022

Sources and Other interesting reading:

• Russian economic collapse will be hard to avoid
• Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice
  

 

When will the Russians give up?????

I keep hoping I will hear that the Russians have announced their surrender when I listen to the news (Ukraine and Moscow are 3 hours ahead of UTC). Sadly, I think Francis Fukuyama is mostly correct in his predictions in Heading for Defeat [1]:

1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
3. There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.

Also, Mark Hertling has some good observations on twitter as well.

I said it yesterday on @cnn, I'll say it again today.

Having worked w/ UKR's army, I expected them to be very good. And they have been better than I expected.

Having seen Russian forces in training & exercises, I expected them to be bad. They are worse than I expected. 1/10

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) March 12, 2022

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502667856772747266.html 

Even though this article is titled as being to the left, it applies to the right as well.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/a-letter-to-the-western-left-from-kyiv/

The Western Democracies and Russia signed agreements to ensure Ukraine's neutrality. They are failing miserably in keeping their word as Ukraine is falling.  Point 5 in the Fukuyama piece is the most useful:

 It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.

So, you can support Ukraine without pushing for "direct involvement". Give Ukraine the supplies to fight this war. 

Footnote:

[1] I disagree with his assessment of Biden's MiG decision. US publicly promised MiGs then went back on that promise. That was a very bad move. The US isn't making a very good show of saving the world. The US appears slightly less competent than Russians in how they are handling this matter.

Here's a woman politician with an assault rifle I can get behind!

Nope, she's not from the States, but I bet that headline got your attention. She's Kira Rudik: She's a businesswoman who has worked in the US. Now, she is a member of the Ukrainian Parliament since 2019 and Current leader of the Голос (Holos) Political Party.  Голос has a dual meaning of either "Voice" or "Vote":

 It has two meanings, and both are very important to us. <...> Because Voice is their [the voters'] voice, by which they demonstrate a desire for change, it is their voice of change. On the other hand, it is their vote, that they can cast [in elections]. <...> The voice, in fact, characterizes Ukrainian voters and their desire for change. What else, if not the voice?

This is a party I can really stand behind. 

I might have a lot of qualms if she were in the States, but she's in Ukraine and she will defend he country with her life. She has made it clear that her reason for bearing arms is to defend Ukraine.

Hence the assault rifle. 

She may not be the leader, but she is as strong a voice as Volodomyr Zalenski.

Are we concerned with the #chemical attack as #Biden said?

Well, I am more concerned that #Russian forces are bombarding nuclear plant and turned off Chernobyl cooling system off the electrical grid.@CNN pic.twitter.com/WSq5fayBKA

— Kira Rudik (@kiraincongress) March 11, 2022

She's somebody that is very persuasive for the Ukrainian cause and seen on US and other western media. I haven't been able to interview her, but she is one of many sources I follow on Twitter for news about the Ukraine War.

I haven't met her in person yet, but I hope to someday. I hope that we can work together to rebuild Ukraine and get it firmly in the European Union.

I hope she can inspire support for Ukraine and its freedom in the United States. After all, this is a woman who gets the Second Amendment.

🇺🇦Слава Україні!
💪Разом до перемоги!

See also:

• https://twitter.com/kiraincongress
• Wikipedia Kira Rudik
  

Remind me the reason for one of Trump's impeachments?

 Wasn't it withholding defence funds based upon a "quid pro quo"? Something which was denied by Volodomyr Zalensky:

He said military aid to Ukraine was blocked before the phone call but said “our calls were not linked to Burisma or military aid” and said no conditions were attached to meeting Trump.

“I don’t want to interfere in U.S. elections,” Zelensky also said Thursday. He also said Ukraine was waiting for an official visit to the U.S.

I'm not sure how Mr. Zalensky feels about this past event, but I can tell you that he's pretty upset that Biden torpedoed the promised aid. Ukraine needs all the help it can get to create a No Fly Zone. 

But Ukrainians have fought before without a lot of outside help. They are doing it again. Still, it would be nice if Ukraine were supplied with the necessary arms to defend the skies.

NATO doesn't need to do a lot of work. Just get the weapons to a place where Ukrainians can collect them. I would like to think that the technical know how to cloak these shipments exists. Especially after watching Russian radio commication being blocked by the Ukrainians using low tech methods.

I don't like the duopoly, but I really dislike when the duopoly tries to pretend they have the moral high ground.

Neither party does.

It's time for the US to get a new line up politically.

The Ukraine Detail Nobody’s Talking About

 I love this guy.

The Guardian has been printing negative press about Biden since before the election. I've been mentioning them as well. Here goes--more stories from the Guardian about Biden:

• https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/20/joe-biden-corruption-donald-trump
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/feb/15/joe-biden-donald-trump-democratic-primary-south-carolina
  
• https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/feb/27/hunter-biden-joe-biden-president-business-dealings

So, how did two politicians with no support manage to win the election?

What will be the outcome of the Ukraine War.

I would like to think this will end soon. But it will probably go on as long as Putain remains head of Russia's government.

This will signal the end of the US's and Russia's aspirations to be "Superpowers". Especially as long as the US duopoly retains control with the "partisan divide". Both nations will need to become true multi-party democracies to be anything but irrelevant.

Both US and Russia have lost face as countries which are effective at "protecting the world". Russia can't even militarily defeat a smaller country next door: how can it defend the world. The same sort of applies to the US.

China is sitting this out, but sees how the world can band together to weaken a "strong" country.

I see there being multinational alliances, or at least a strengthening of those alliances. The European Union and United Nations will become more important. Although, I see the UN having a radical reworking so that one nation cannot have veto power the way Russia did.

Superpowers and Oligarchs will have to become a thing of the past.

But there will have to be more cooperation and working for peace. This war is coming too close to causing nuclear anihilation.

The ultimate upshot is that there need to be a radical rethink of the world's power structure and the root causes of this crisis.