Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Questions but few Answers

I worked in Health Care Administration for 11 years. I was a claims examiner, then auditor, compliance specialist, and Manager/Asst. Director. I helped administer Worker's Compensation, traditional insurance, Medicaid, and both long and short-term disability claims. In those 11 years I saw the advent of Pre-Certification, HMO's, PPO's, PHO's, and self-funded programs. All were intended to restrain the rising cost of health care. All were 'private sector'/market-driven solutions. None worked. Not one - the closest any came were probably SSO (Second Surgical Opinion) and Pre-Cert requirements, both of which had demonstrable negative side-effects like discharging pregnant women within 24 hours, often too early.

I've also witnessed the impacts of Medicare. While Medicare has helped to prevent poverty among the elderly by absorbing the costs of health care (in part) for our older fellow Americans, it has not constrained costs as we'd be lead to believe should happen with the burden shared more broadly. In fact, health expenditures are rising fastest in the over 65 crowd. Of course, that is attributable to having many more seniors than in the past, but it is clear that the negotiated rates from Medicare cause most physicians to chafe terribly at what they see as depressed reimbursements.

There are several causes for increasing costs. I could site numerous articles - if people ask, I'll go find them, but I hope that on this subject people can accept I am a comparative expert.

Following my time working for two of the largest insurers, I also spent time doing claim arbitration work for friends and family for another couple of years. It wasn’t full time, but it also taught me a few things about how insurance companies (in general), react to non-standard types of care.

The bottom line it seems is that we have escalating costs for three specific reasons:

1. We have an aging population which is increasingly taking advantage of more effective end-of-life and acute geriatric care. One estimate says that 50% of the health care costs are for those over 65.

2. A few specific conditions account for a huge amount of expense. That same study said that 7 specific conditions account for 44% of all health expenditures.

3. As costs increase, more people fall out of the system. As more people fall out of the system, those who remain in insurance programs directly have to pay a higher fee for their services to help offset lost revenues to providers from unreimbursed care.

4. As people became less able to afford care, they skip care. They wait until they are truly in-trouble, not just sick, and then they go to Emergency Rooms for care. ER’s are the least cost effective delivery method imaginable. First, it’s a hospital, so it has high overhead. Second, ER’s are heavily staffed for emergencies, and so there is that simple burden, but probably MOST impactful, ER’s feel compelled by law, risk of litigation, etc.. to run tests on many patients far more heavily than would have been done in a clinical setting with a more healthy patient who’s problem was caught much earlier.

There are also some myths about what is increasing the cost of care, those specifically are

1. From the right-wing (and a little the AMA), we are told malpractice causes enormous cost increases. However, other than a few specialties (obstetrics and surgical), malpractice isn’t much higher than it was 20 to 30 years ago. Even including those factors, Malpractice (again per several studies) only accounts for one-half of one percent of the inflation level per year. Malpractice DID spike upward in the early 2000’s, but that was due to relative under-charging in the preceding 5 years AND losses in the stock market unrelated to the cost of health care. Malpractices insurers sought to recover losses by charging doctors more – not because malpractice losses increased.

Further, the offered solution, tort reform, offers to limit awards as a measure to reduce ‘frivolous’ cases. However, if baseless cases were the problem, they’d not get large awards, meaning, frivolous cases don’t get millions in awards. Insurers are trying to get protection against truly large awards to people for truly egregious acts by doctors. That’s not trying to stop frivolity, it’s trying to stop having to pay large claims even as they collect large premiums. Regardless, malpractice simply isn’t that significant an expense to be driving, in any meaningful way, health care inflation.

2. From the left, we are told that the issue is the complex administrative bureaucracies and in general adversarial attitudes of insurance companies leading to the need to hire vast administrative staffs at hospitals and clinics. While this does certainly cause inflation, estimates are that it causes up to 15% of the inflation we see in the market, again the truth seems to be somewhat less than the hype. First, insurance companies, all of them but one that I ever dealt with to any extent, hire examiners and auditors (and managers) to process claims. They aren’t out to give away money, but they administer programs within the strictures of the law. They price the premiums to make a profit based on an assumed amount of health service activity. I never, not one time, EVER heard anyone suggest slowing/delaying/losing a claim as a course of action. I acted as the patient’s advocate when I was an auditor and appeal reviewer, and I was supported, without question, by company Counsel and management – every time, all the time.

Second, nearly all of the administrative burdens insurance companies placed on doctors and hospitals were put there to RESTRAIN costs – not to increase them. To do so would be self-defeating for insurance companies. It would be horrid business practice to require a doctor to increase costs 50% to comply with pre-certification or second surgical opinion (or referral) requirements that might save 20%. The bottom line is, HMO, Pre-Cert, SSO, etc.. DID have a retarding effect on inflation.

The greatest amount of inflation in medical costs came from 1960 to 1975 (at 2300%) when NO administrative controls were in place. The second greatest period (that of the past 10 years) has occurred as doctors (and hospitals) have left HMO’s/PPO’s in droves due to their belief that the relationships simply don’t pay ENOUGH. So, both the left AND the right have meme’s about what the problem is. Gutting malpractice claims will merely lead to people who truly suffered a loss, getting screwed by the system instead, and going to ‘single-payer’ alone, won’t control costs adequately either.

Both would help, one to an infinitesimal degree (malpractice reform), the other somewhat more, but NEITHER addresses the problem. One other meme’ to deal with, over-utilization – this is the one which claims the poor (or immigrants) etc.. go to ER’s frivolously. It is funny that the primary complaint of some seems to be that if the less advantaged or victimized in society merely didn’t complain about catastrophically bad treatment and they didn’t get sick, we’d be just ducky.


The truth of course is FAR from this. As I said, the fact is that 7 illnesses account for 44% of expenses. That’s NOT malpractice or frivolous trips to the ER – that’s elderly, overweight, diabetic people needing care. The poor have higher ER utilization, no question, than do the middle-class, but that’s because the middle-class have MUCH MUCH higher clinical utilization. The poor cannot afford co-pays at clinics – so they wait until they are desperately sick, and then go to an ER which they know cannot turn them away.

The truth is that had they gotten the basic clinical care, they’d doubtless have the same basic ER utilization as the middle-class, unless you think the poor simply LIKE to throw away money – because most of the time, ER’s still require the patient to pay something – and that something usually exceeds what an office co-pay would be.

As well, it (arguing everything will be fine if we just get the indigent to pay) fails to deal with one fundamental paradox - if we know we are paying $7000+ per capita, and we believe the rates of compensation for health care workers are fair and justified, then we aren't 'paying too much' - yet, we agree that something is fundamentally wrong.

So, what to do? First, a couple of points – pharmacology is the leading method of treatment of most diseases. We instituted Medicare Part D, to try to help seniors pay for medications. Seniors consume many more medications on average than younger people.

The net effect was we fed a highly inflationary system even MORE money. We didn’t try to control the cost side, and so costs overall went up. As well, drug companies spend $14 on advertising for drugs like Lovitra, Viagra, etc.. than they do on research. In fact, a LOT of the research in medicine in the United States, is done at publicly funded universities. Drug companies turn profits in other countries selling the exact same medicines they sell here, at a fraction of the cost. Finally, end of life, and near end of life care, consumes vast amounts of health care services and dollars. As a population bubble ages it will only increase demand and usage – and thus overall expenditures, even without the supply/demand cost pressures.

With this, I will make the following general observations/suggestions One point a conservative friend of mine made which I absolutely agree with, is get the true price of the care reflected to the patient. If an X-Ray of your spine costs $300 (factoring expense and normal retail profit numbers), then patient’s, all patients, should be charged $300, rather than charging me, and five other people $350, to pay for one person who didn’t/can’t pay. How that 6th person pays, he didn’t have an answer for.

When I suggested to him that this is the exact problem, that we have too few people sharing the overall burden, he agreed. Yet, how can this be done? How can we make it so that the 6th person can cover the cost of normal care sufficiently?

The cost of drugs must be negotiated. Any health care solution which doesn’t grasp this fundamental reality will fail. I don’t know whether suggesting a return to making drug advertising illegal is workable, but some more realistic split on advertising/research seems required. Perhaps drug utilization for sexual impotence needs the same market-based limitations as we have for chiropractic and podiatry. Perhaps such drugs should have scaling co-pays for a certain number above 10/month, but some sort of reasonableness in the pharmaceutical industry is needed.

These are the most profitable companies (as a percentage) in the world, supplying a demand item. We regulate public utilities for this very reason, people cannot be held hostage for heat or power, there is no sound reason not to consider health care, and including pharmaceuticals, a public utility, especially given that we subsidize their research dollars. As well, we simply must negotiate some sort of reasonable cost/profit ratio with pharma – it is done in many other countries, and clearly CAN be done here, it just isn’t – mostly due to the vast power of money of the pharmaceutical companies.

Finally, I do not believe that going to a national health care system will dramatically lower costs. It may not lower them substantially at all. We pay our doctors FAR FAR more than any other country, and on average, get rather less quality than many other countries (we are 29th in infant mortality, 37th in life expectancy - these are considered the bell-weather bench-marks of measuring delivery of care). We pay more than double the next closest nation in PER CAPITA health care costs. That’s not because of unreimbursed care, that measures total cost of delivery of all care divided by citizens. Our care is no more sophisticated or well done than many other nations unless you are VERY wealthy and can buy whatever kind of care you like.

The only culprits for that cost difference which varies from other peer-group nations are wages, costs of consumables, and malpractice expense (which we’ve already dealt with). So, in addition to drug costs, wage expense clearly is an issue – but it is highly, HIGHLY unlikely even a nationalized health-care system will lower wages. That would be disastrous for those workers, and not palatable at all to most people in the country. However, it WOULD, just like negotiating drug costs, tend to apply the brakes to wage inflation in the industry, so while it wouldn't reduce costs, it probably would help to restrain or even stop the run-away inflation in the industry. Equally, we are a horribly unhealthy nation. We are vastly overweight as compared to nearly any other country. This increases our health cost burden enormously. So many other diseases, diabetes, heart disease, cholesterol imbalances, arterial disease, etc.. are attributable to and exacerbated by excessive weight. We must change our entire approach to fast food, what kinds of food are delivered industrially (such as beef and other high fat foods), versus those which are costly here, but cheap elsewhere (grains, fruits, vegetables). We provide high-fat, quick foods because they are easy and fast, but they are an enormous burden on society in the long run.

Finally, while we have lower life-expectancy, we do tend to ship our elderly ill off to nursing homes and hospice centers. If we are not to be crippled by ever escalating total costs, some predict that without restraint our health care costs will exceed 20% of our GDP, meaning 1 in every 5 dollars in the country will go for health care – we must make some hard decisions about life prolonging care for the terminally ill. It’s not the biggest area for cost cutting, but it does consume a lot of money. I don’t have any answers, but I do think there are answers to be found.

47 comments:

  1. I just sent off a response to one of those anti-national health program propganda / misinformation emails that is circulating. This one claimed that Natasha Richardson died, because she had her skiing accident in Canada; and it asserted she would be alive today if the accident had instead occurred in the US. The reason given was that she was not AIRLIFTED to the hospital, as she would have been here.

    The real deal is that Richardson 1) should have been wearing head protection which would have prevented the injury that killed her; and
    2) Richardson was immediately attended by the ski patrol staff who checked her over; she then felt well enough to WALK back to her hotel. This was not an 'airlift' situation.
    3) An hour later when she experienced headaches, she was rushed by fully staffed ambulance to the hospital in Canada, and then airlifted MUCH later to a hospital in NYC that had the right kind of specialist to deal with her injuries, although unsuccessfully. The treatment in NYC was speculative, a last chance effort, not a reflection on inadequacies in Canadian health care.

    There are huge amounts of misinformation and disinformation circulating, on television and other media, and of course - 'the internet(s)'. I hope that people will not be gullible, will not accept inaccuracies just because information tracks with their political views.

    Whether you agree OR disagree with what you hear, whether it is from your own section of the political spectrum, or from an opposition / competing position --- check out ALL the information thoroughly, from all sources.

    Unlike Natasha Richardson, some day YOUR life might actually depend upon it.

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  2. Roughly 49 Million KR - albeit they then use ER's (etc..) as emergency medical resources - a truly lousy way to provide effective health care.

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  3. K,

    What number do you suggest we use for uninsured people?

    Do you think there aren't any? If so, how do you suggest they be measured?

    The point is, we can question EVERY statistic if we desire, we can say that the WHO statistics are wrong, we can question census data, we can say that normative, scientifically based sampling is wrong, if that's what you'd prefer.

    But, it then means we have to not only question data, we have to essentially require the developers of the data to PROVE they didn't make a mistake, which is, I hope you'll agree, a fool's errand.

    One other thing, while I get that you think people who accept data from the WHO, or the US Census are sheeple, at least these are reputable sources, as opposed to say, right-wing screed authors like Jonah Goldberg. So, in addition to my question about, "So how DO we measure the quantity of uninsured people if we don't accept census and other polling data?", I would ask you, why do you accept the 'facts' of someone who certainly has a FAR greater agenda, and appears to have far more factual flaws, like Goldberg?

    As well, I think you may have said in the past you don't think Obama is a citizen, based on what credible evidence? I mean, if we're looking for epistomoligic, metaphysical proof in all things, where is your proof Obama wasn't born where his birth certificate from the Hawaii state government, the hospital in Hawaii, and the local paper ALL say he was, and said it 48 years ago, apparently in some sort grandiose conspiracy.

    You seem to have a desire for irrefutable evidence on things of your choosing, K - and I hope you can accept it seems rather inconsistent.

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  4. Sorry, that should have read -

    "If you don't think there are any uninsured poeple, ok, based on what? But if you DO think there are, how would you suggest the number be measured?"

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  5. BTW - KR,

    There certainly ARE constitution provisions for nationalized services - if for nothing else, securing the nation in time of threat, as was done during WWII.

    To be succinct, as I understand it, it's the commerce clause which allows for the Congress to govern and control interstate commerce, including such activities of commerce which cross state line or otherwise have an overriding national interest. While you can say it's not true, the Supreme Court of the United States, has, time and again, said you are wrong.

    However, as we have a Constitutional Law expert, I'll defer to his wisdom - but respectfully ask that you recognize your position has been refuted time and time again by Scotus so far on questions about Mecicare, Social Security and the like.

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  6. KR- watch it - I said I BELEIVED you had suggested it, I didn't claim it was fact, don't get your knickers in a twist so easily, let things roll off your back, remember?

    If you don't subscribe to the Birthers, great - sorry for the apparent misunderstanding and it's good to know you don't agree with that particular group of right-wing nuts.

    Also, I see your number now - sorry, but insults really do get me to skip a lot of your commentary - so, here's a question - how do you come to your number? Based on what VERIFIED source is your number coming from?

    As for disproving negatives, actually K-R, it IS considered a fool's game to expect people to disprove negatives, it's like asking someone to prove they DON'T own a home - it's an endless search - so please, you are dealing with people at least your intellectual equal here - you were asked a civil question - you also ducked answering about Jonah Goldberg - you want us to accept something as shoddily supported as Liberal Fascism as fact, but you don't accept as fact data derived from the World Health Organization, the US Census, and several well-respected polling organizations.

    That said - again, we've covered the Constitutional question, you can restate it 100,000 times, it's still been answered, and validated, and verified by SCOTUS.

    However, let's focus on actual issues here, rather than mularkey like there aren't really very many people without coverage, or that SCOTUS is wrong.

    First, we are paying a LOT of money into healthcare, that's not really debated.

    Second, more and more people join the ranks of being employed by health care as the population ages, again, not really in question.

    Third, outside of Medicare, which is criticized for NOT paying enough - there really isn't a public subsidy impact. There may be a cost shift impact, but still, there are a total number of cases to treat per year (albeit growing), and a certain number of people employed (also growing).

    So, unless you think insurance companies are either defrauding people and pocketing far more than they claim, or that they are pocketing money in ways we can't track (which is essentially non-fraudulently doing the first thing) - then the money is mostly going to either health care workers, or drug companies.

    Consequently, we're spending $7500 per capita on health care, and it's growing. We're not going to change that number downward by nationalizing health care - at best we might restrain inflation - at best, by having the government essentially employ the health care industry - but, the point is - if you believe in 'market solutions' there is nothing being done to restrain costs right now - and it is crippling the economy.

    So, what are the suggestions? I'll debate the validity of the US Census data over Jonah Goldberg if people REALLY see value in that, but I don't very much, sorry.

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  7. BTW - I'm sorry, I should have said...

    My Dog just ate your car.

    In your mind you know I know you're a rightie.

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  8. Your quesiton was answered.

    If you desire to be pedantic about the Constitution when Court after Court has answered you, that's your decision, but you're making up issues that have no legs, and no standing.

    You also ducked the question about Goldberg, again. And ducked the question/point about disproving negatives.

    Game, set, match indeed.

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  9. Btw, K- I see you didn't answer where your figure of 10M uninsured came from - did you miss that question? Sorry, I know the truth hurts, yeah, ouch..

    (Or really, K, I suspect you avoided THAT question - you see, missing a question isn't about the 'truth' - as you suggested - it's just about you (or I) missing one).

    However, when you are pointedly asked to identify a fact you've claimed - especially when you've questioned other facts and called those who believe them 'sheeple', I think it's more than fair to ask you to substantiate your comments, or would you ask those who read them to believe them simply because you say so? If so, wouldn't that make anyone who believes you 'sheeple' too (at least until you susbstantiate your numbers?)

    Anyway, let's move on to something that has merit and is worth discussing.

    You believe a in 'market based' solution? (yes/no)?

    If so, what solution?

    I ask pretty straightforwardly, because we ARE spending what 12% of our GDP on healthcare - we do have an aging population, and we have fewer people able to afford to pay...

    So, what is your solution?

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  10. Trying to get back on track here . . .
    The 47,000,000 number comes from the census bureau. From this report, to be exact:
    http://www.census.gov/prod/2008pubs/p60-235.pdf
    I'm still looking at the numbers, but one thing that I noticed right away is that the number is not 47,000,000. That's an old number. The new number is 45.7 million.
    The fact that Obamacare advocates still use the 47 million number reduces their credibility.

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  11. Modern medicine as we know it was unknown to the framers of the US Constitution. So were television, radio, and the internet. Yet, because of the flexibility of this marvelous document, the freedom of the press applies to television, radio and the internet.

    The US Constitution doesn't specifically set out the duty of Congress to regulate health care or to establish a health care system. However, you seem to be implying that you are a believer in literal or strict interpretation of the constitution. That's fine, but let me present you with some sobering realities if you take strict construction to its logical conclusion. 1) The state or local government could require your children to attend public school, and there could perhaps teach them things you don't want to be taught. 2) The state or local government could require your children to have certain vaccinations, even if you don't believe in those vaccinations or don't believe it appropriate. 3) Your state or local government could establish its own health care system and force you to be a part of it, and under a strict interpretation of the constitution, you would have no grounds to challenge this. My point is, those who insist that the federal government can't do *insert disapproved idea here* because its not written specifically into the constitution are forgetting what the courts have said over, and over, and over. The constitution is a living document, and the reason we have courts is to interpret it for us.

    The Interstate Commerce Clause gives Congress the ability to regulate any product or business which is involved in commerce across state lines. Its been used to regulate vitually anything, and although there hasn't yet been a case on it, (because there is no national health insurance law at present), I firmly believe the law would pass constitutional muster.

    K-Rod, the founding fathers had no concept of the idea of a corporation as large as GM. However, even in that day an age, they understood the importance of an economic system that worked, which is why they wrote a clause into the constitution which allowed congress to establish a system of bankruptcy. The government chose to assist General Motors (with a lot of groveling and begging from GM), and one of the conditions of that assistance was that the CEO of GM be fired. BTW, even if the government hadn't been involved, its not uncommon for a company in Chapter 11 to be forced by its creditors to fire its CEO, on the theory that the CEO is responsible for the mess in the first place. (In the case of GM, it was business decisions decades ago, but that's a different topic). My point is whether the founding fathers would have approved or disapproved is specious at best. They lived in a different world with different economic realities.

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  12. Terry! Glad you are back. I am going to be shameless OFF topic for a moment and ask if where you were in Hawaii, could you observe the solar eclipse last week?

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  13. Right Terry, because the 1.5 MM difference is soooo tremendously significant as to make using anything close to it akin to creating pure fiction.

    Come on, get serious. That kind of hyperbole is silly.

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  14. ToE,

    Thanks for your commments.

    KR - we can waste time on nonsense - or - we can admit something is broken, and discuss alternatives. I didn't advocate for anything, I merely framed the debate around what it NEEDS to be around - all the rest is window dressing.

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  15. KR- proposing to 'cover 5 Million' isn't much of a comprimise of anything - at least it certainly doesn't address meaningfully the problem.

    However, let's talk about it -

    You've claimed that the number of people who really need health care is 5 Million.

    I would ask you to substantiate that number.

    Since, at least at this point, the working number is 45.5 Million- you are suggesting covering about 1/10th the number without coverage.

    What should be done with the rest?

    How about the other roughly 50Million who are underinsured - where any significant health care crisis in the family will eat up MORE than 10% of their annual income?

    It also fails to address one of the chief complaints of the right - namely, it doesn't address cost shifting to people who CAN pay for care delivered to those who cannot.

    Consequently, your comprimise, to me, seems completely lacking in utility - it doesn't solve the problems other than to cover about 12% of those who need it.

    You also didn't address how to pay for it. Do you have a suggestion?

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  16. On a different veign-

    Ok, K, is a governmental health care program unconstitutional in your opinion, yes/no?

    If you think it is, why ask, time and again where it is in the Constitution? It's a moot point - it doesn't need to be in the Constitution verbatum.

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  17. Terry,

    Here is the source of ludicrous claims of 47 Million people uninsured...

    http://aspe.hhs.gov/health/reports/07/uninsured/index.htm

    Also, the site you posted points to 2008 data, perhaps there IS a new number, but are you seriously suggesting that by using data for 2007 or 2008 people are 'reducing their credibility'?

    Where do you get your 44.5 M number from?

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  18. Terry, just an FYI, by 2010, it's expected to be 52m, so I'm afraid your data is outdated.

    http://healthaffairs.org/blog/2009/06/02/52-million-uninsured-americans-by-2010/

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  19. penigma-
    I looked through dozens of articles that used the "47 million uninsured Americans" number. All were pro-Obamacare. Of those that mentioned the source of the number, all of them said it was census data from 2006.
    The document that you link to says:A fuller discussion of this issue is available from the U.S. Census Bureau publication "Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2006" (PDF document, 28 pages)
    That document breaks down the 47 million number several ways. For example, it says that 10,231,000 of the 47 million are not citizens. It also says that 17,742,000 of the 47 million were in households with an annual income > $50,000.
    Additionally the report notes that their survey method tends to overcount, rather than undercount, the uninsured, and that the 47 million does not include people with government health insurance (like medicaid & schip), as well as private insurance.
    This is your document, not mine.
    So we have established that the "47 million uninsured Americans" number is a lie, since 0ver 10,000,000 of them were not citizens.
    That gets us down to 37 million.
    I think that most people making $50K/year or more can afford to buy insurance if it is not supplied through their employer. That gets us down to 20,000,000.
    I imagine that number (20 million) would be further reduced if everyone who was eligible for government assistance (medicaid, schip) applied for it.
    Penigma, I would love to have free insurance. Currently, to cover my wife & myself, the company & I pay around $10,000/year. If I want to retire early, say at age 63, I would have to pay that myself for two years. Twenty thousand dollars is a significant amount of money.
    I am not opposed, in principle, to greater government involvement in healthcare. What I oppose is having itrammed down my throat by people who can't even be honest about the scope of the problem of the uninsured.
    Having a pencil-pushing government bureaucrat overseeing my health care is no better than having a pencil-pushing insurance guy overseeing my health car -- but if it's a government bureaucrat you can't take your business elsewhere.
    As for your 52M number, it is 'expected' by a pair of sociologists working out of UC San Diego.
    Let's stick with real numbers, shall we?

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  20. So we have established that the "47 million uninsured Americans" number is a lie, since 0ver 10,000,000 of them were not citizens."

    Well, Terry, first, the data we BOTH pointed to was from the Census - that was the root of the information.

    Second, it's not a lie - a lie is a purposeful deception. I think it's fair to say it's a mistatement at best. What do we call 10 Million people who reside in a country who have no insurance when we want to use a term to describe the situation? Would you insist that we say "37 Million Americans AND 10 Million Aliens don't have health care?" I hope you can understand, that really isn't how people who write headlines, write headlines.

    Second, your assumption that everyone who makes $50k/year can afford insurance is an assumption at best, and no such reduction is called for. It constitutes you (and the like) paternalistically deciding what people in lower income brackets can afford. Probably, since catastrophic health costs would bankrupt them, they are playing the game of "I hope I don't get sick - since I'm not elderly I probably won't - so it's my risk/reward scenario of I can't afford insurance, but I can afford to pay to go to the doctor twice a year." It isn't a good scenario - they avoid primary care.

    Third, if all of the people who were eligible for SCHIP (a program CUT by Bush if you recall) and Medicare used it, we'd be further in debt - so you're essentially advocating for greater governmental health care coverage paid for by debt. I don't agree with that solution - if you do not address the systemic issues, all you do is increase the costs, inflation, and the overall public burden.

    Finally,

    "Having a pencil-pushing government bureaucrat overseeing my health care is no better than having a pencil-pushing insurance guy overseeing my health car -- "

    Yet, you support Mediare being expanded - while I grasp you probably oppose Medicare on principal, I also suspect you'll use it when you have it. Why? Because you paid for it? Probably so, but also because, it actually DOES work to restrain costs and deliver care, and works effectively.

    "but if it's a government bureaucrat you can't take your business elsewhere."

    Now THERE's scare tactics - Terry, the English model doesn't allow for voluntary opt-out - but many other models do, meaning, you can go where you like, you just pay for it.

    "As for your 52M number, it is 'expected' by a pair of sociologists working out of UC San Diego. Let's stick with real numbers, shall we?"

    I don't think your numbers are any more real, they were conjecture. While I agree the people are biased, there numbers are certainly supportable - they are REAL figures from the standpoint of having been statistically sampled/derived.

    Thanks for the reply- I hope you understand I don't advocate for nationalized health care here.

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  21. Terry, TTuch, Jas (even KR) and everyone else - here are the salient points.

    1. Affordibility is only going to be achieved by lowering costs for treatments as compared to inflation - at the highest level, that's the issue.

    2. You can make very minor dents at the edges by lowering malpractice and administrative costs but that will not fix the problem.

    3. You can't create deflation in the industry - it would be a financial disaster to do so on par with creating deflation in manufacturing wages or financial industry wages, perhaaps an even greater disaster than either of those two, actually.

    So, how do we get there?

    I'm going to offer two suggestions.

    Offer a governmental option - and allow that option the opportunity to negotiate rates for pharmacueticals - do the same thing for Mediare D. This will tend to retard/restrain the cost of pharmacueticals AND create competition in the marketplace where there isn't all that much competition.

    Offer every citizen, even those who purchase the governmental option, to use their own dollars to pay for care they'd prefer to get on their schedule, from a non-participating provider, etc.. In short, it's not madatory that you ONLY use the governmental service even if you participate.

    Offer 90 days of hospice, end of life care as reimbursed fully by the government - pay for it through annuity program funding. An annuity (for those who don't know) is a reverse life insurance program, those who live long enough, get the beneftis. It's what Social Security is (or is supposed to be).

    Funding overall...really hard - I like the idea of taxing high-fat, high empty calorie foods/drinks. I also like the idea of offering discounts in cost to people who substantiate ACTIVE participation in exercise programs/dont' smoke, etc.. Current private insurance already does this.

    For those who are under/uninsured - provide health primary clinics. Right now, one of the key issues is not receiving primary care. These clinics would have to charge a reduced copay. Pay for them through ER offset from Social Security - meaning we know we're spending a lot on ER care for indigent people - require the indigent to go to these clinics for non-emergent care rather than an ER. Again, private insurance already does this or you pay a LOT more for failing to.

    There are LOTS of other ideas - I'm very interested in hearing yours.

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  22. Breaking the numbers down, as Terry said, gives us a figure of 10 million uninsured who are not citizens. I will admit I didn't go to determine how many of those are here legally, but it doesn't matter. Our system of social stability requires that if someone is critically ill, they receive medical care, and a hospital doesn't ask about immigration status. Unfortunately, if the patient doesn't have insurance, we all end up paying through higher rates the hospital charges the rest of us who do, or who can afford to pay.

    Terry, you somehow decided that because the number of 47 million uninsured has been presented or provided by organizations which support health care reform, this makes the information biased. I think there are enough other sources which come to this estimate that although some of the organizations which support health care reform may be biased, there are also other organizations, such as the US Census, that have no opinion either way on health care reform. The US Bureau of the Census doesn't take political stands, they merely count and provide numbers for others to make political decisions.

    I agree that there will need to be some sort of a government plan to compete with private health insurance, because there is no incentive for health insurance companies to be competitive otherwise. Health insurance should probably also be regulated at a national level, not a state level. Let me explain: Health insurance companies are licensed and regulated by state insurance commissioners in all 50 states. Every time a company wants/needs to change something in its policies, they must get approval from the insurance commission of all 50 states. That is a time consuming and very expensive proposition. This is part of the reason why insurance companies aren't truly competitive in their rates.

    I don't necessarily support the English system for national health care, where everyone must participate and private hospitals are possible, but rare. I tend to believe, however, that universal coverage for health insurance is an absolute necessity, that we must give the national health insurance plan the ability to negotiate with hospitals and drug companies, and that we must also do this with Medicare Part D.

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  23. KR wrote:
    ""the working number is 45.5 Million...
    How about the other roughly 50Million who are underinsured..."

    Given that the numbers are rising, not falling, and apparently rising rather steeply I might add, using the figure of 50 million is not unreasonable. Gathering statistics always lags behind the changes, up or down.

    KR writes:
    "Perhaps you should read page 16 of the over 1000 page bill that makes it illegal for an independent consultant to buy private health insurance..."

    Actually, I HAVE read page 16. It was featured rather prominently by sites which are critical of Rep. Michele Bachmann, when she was caught making inaccurate statements, and that is NOT what it says.

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  24. KR wrote:
    "DG, what is on page 942? How about 784? Interesting how Liberal Fascists can't read into what the health care bill might say but then turn around and claim the constitution is literally alive!!!"

    KR, I at least took the time and made the effort to see if a challenged claim about something was correct.

    Did YOU read page 16, before you made that statement? If not then why should I bother to answer about the other pages you mention? You don't care enough to look for yourself.

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  25. KR, a second comment was rejected because of unacceptable language. If you would like to present the idea, without the swearing, the ideas would be weldom.

    Please.

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  26. I am growing tired of your use of the word Liberal Fascists, K-Rod. To whom do you refer when you use the term? If you are referring to me, you are in error on both points. I am not a liberal. I tend to have some liberal views, but on some matters, I am quite conservative. I am also not a fascist, (capital or non-capital f). I don't believe in a fascist style of government, and its been shown over and over and over to you that the term "liberal fascist" is a contradiction in terms, concocted by a journalist whose writings have been declaimed by nearly every political scientist who has read it. Your repeating it over and over transforms it into a pejorative, and I am beginning to believe that is your intent. While I am neither liberal or fascist, your use of the term insults both liberals and fascists, and I wish you would stop it. If you would stick to rational debate you would accomplish far more.

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  27. Before we start I will say I have not had the time to read the whole proposed legislation but there are 3 problems I have with the whole thing.
    1)forced insurance. From when I left college until I was about 30 I had an accident policy. Checkups and visits were not covered but if I got in an accident the hospital was. I was healthy and the premiums for more coverage cost more than I usually spent in a yr. Forcing employers to provide insurance will cause young just out of college workers to have their hours cut to just under the level that triggers insurance and takes more out of their checks than they feel they need.
    2) A New York neurosurgeon asked Obama if he would pledge to keep his family in whatever system we end up with and he said no. If it is not good enough for the people designing it then it is no good for the rest of us.
    3) I really don't want the people who run the Post Office, the Social Security Administration, Amtrak, US Military, and other things like that making decisions about my health care. Just to take the example of the military we spend billions on things because of sweetheart deals in Congress, programs go on past when the equipment is obsolete, our soldiers are paid far less than civilians in similar jobs (minus the getting shot at part).
    The federal government is not exactly the model of efficiency so why do we think they can make health care better and reduce the cost.

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  28. TOE-
    Thank you for the thoughtful comment http://www.blogger.com/profile/11251280901824106670.
    If we are talking about the 2006 uninsured data it was collected via a questionaire by the Census people. It is self reported.
    The CB itself points out the weaknesses in its data. See the original PDF at http://www.census.gov/prod/2007pubs/p60-233.pdf

    I don't understand this paragraph: I am using census data:

    Terry, you somehow decided that because the number of 47 million uninsured has been presented or provided by organizations which support health care reform, this makes the information biased. I think there are enough other sources which come to this estimate that although some of the organizations which support health care reform may be biased, there are also other organizations, such as the US Census, that have no opinion either way on health care reform. The US Bureau of the Census doesn't take political stands, they merely count and provide numbers for others to make political decisions.


    Bias is a given. Advocacy is another word for bias. What I am objecting to is the misuse of the Census bureau's figure of 47 million uninsured in this country. I hear the number reported both by politicians and by mainstream media outlets as "47 million Americans are uninsured". This is simply false. It is not true. The census report that the 47 million number comes from says that this is not true.

    Your last paragraph presents some interesting ideas, but they do not describe Obamacare. Nobody knows what is in this bill. Criticizing it is like trying to hit a moving target; depending on which politician you listen to it will:

    Provide universal health insurance
    Provide access to health care for the poor
    Save money
    Or all three.

    My biggest problem with the way the 47 million number is used is that it inflates the problem. If you remove the ten million who are not citizens from the number, and the 17 million who live in housholds with income > $50k/year, you have a problem, not a crisis, a problem that can, perhaps, be largely fixed by tweaking current medicare/medicaid/schip programs. There is, I think, a lot of low-hanging fruit to be picked.
    The vast majority of Americans are satisfied with their current health insurance, tho they may be apprehensive at the thought of losing it. There is much more potential downside than upside to Obamacare, people realize this, and this is why it lacks popular support.

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  29. KR -

    Your writing is of such a basic, repetitive nature, it would be impossible to misunderstand it, don't flatter yourself.

    TTuck,

    I think it's clear that no one is going to FORCE anyone to participate in a particular plan. They might force some sort of payment/tax.

    I generally agree with most of your points, but the problem still remains - what solution do we have in the end if we effectively change nothing (as the current legistlation proposed will do - it will do nothing)?

    Change is reqiured - the market did NOT find solutions - at this point health care is a demand service, like heat, electricity, shelter - you cannot live without sufficient health care, you certainly will live LESS long. So, what does ANYONE suggest? I'm not looking for useless, repetitive hyperbole (from the likes of KR) - I'm asking a serious question.

    KR - you made a claim that there were only 5M people who really needed insurance, you've been asked time and again to substantiate such a bogus number. You don't chose to - fine, but your comments then will be ignored.

    Terry - whether the 47 Million are AMERICANS is not all that germane. Aliens consume health care services - and many of the services they consume, if unreimbursed, create a burden on those who ARE paying, so the fact is, the 47M number is relevant.

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  30. Terry - whether the 47 Million are AMERICANS is not all that germane. Aliens consume health care services - and many of the services they consume, if unreimbursed, create a burden on those who ARE paying, so the fact is, the 47M number is relevant.

    I am not understanding you. If the number is irrelevant, why does everyone from Obama to NPR keep using it in the context of this debate? If the number was 0, or 200,000,000 would it still be irrelevant?
    Personally, when I learned that 10,000,000 of the uninsured are not citizens, I thought: aliens living here in the US are not responsible for the entirety of the problem of the uninsured, but they are clearly responsible for more than 20% of it. We could reduce the problem by more than 20% simply by a) stopping the massive influx of illegals and b) making health insurance a requirement for legal immigrants.
    That is 20% of the problem solved without a government take over of 20% of our economy.
    Unless you are seriously suggesting that the American taxpayer pay for the health care of anyone who sets foot in the country? Can you think of any other country that does this?
    I can't help thinking, Penigma, that despite your exposition on the details of how insurance companies evaluate claims, that you believe that health care is not a scarce resource. When we treat an illegal alien those resources cannot be used to treat an American.

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  31. Yes something needs to be done but I don't think we need to do it by the 1st of August. However you look at the numbers of uninsured it does include some who can afford insurance and choose not to buy and some who are not citizens. Currently if something happens to them they will still get treated. There is a large portion of the population who has insurance through their employer or school and are happy with it. People from all over the world come to the US for certain operations and treatments that are being done in the US and not elsewhere. The main problem is the ever increasing costs. As other posters have pointed out, uninsured add to this. So lets find out the true number of uninsured, why they are uninsured and tackle that problem first. How about looking at the problems with Medicare and Medicaid and seeing what can be done to fix them first? If the government could point to Medicare and Medicaid as two of the best insurance policies in the country people would not be so leery of the government meddling in their policies. I read an article by Thomas Sowell the other day on cost of medical care and he pointed out that the cost of cars has gone up since we added airbags, air conditioning, dvd players. The cost of houses has gone up since we added dishwashers, air conditioners, double paned glass. Part of why the cost of medical care has gone up is that it is better. When you take out the number of people killed in auto accidents and violent crime the lifespan of the US is either the longest or very close to the longest in the world and this is with all the diabetes and obesity the original poster pointed out. So before we do something that causes unwanted changes (quality goes down) lets take some time and not try to push something through in a week to fix a problem that has been building up for several years.

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  32. Terry, you said, "I am not understanding you. If the number is irrelevant, why does everyone from Obama to NPR keep using it in the context of this debate? If the number was 0, or 200,000,000 would it still be irrelevant?"

    My point wasn't that the number was irrelevant - it was whether they are citizens is irrelevant.

    Here's why - (and by the way, thank you, thank you, thank you, to you, Jas, TTuck, ToE, and DG - for being engaged and reasonable in your line of questioning - I hope you can understand it doesn't happen enough in blogs).

    Ok, back to here's why:

    1. ER's are NOT permitted to not treat a patient - effectively, they don't and won't support allowing someone to die on their doorstep because they didn't have identification. Further, they are prohibited by law from not stabilizing a patient.

    2. Consequently, aliens use health care services, and if the charges aren't paid by the patient (or their insurance) you and I carry the burden of that unreimbursed care. We get billed in two ways. First, Social Security pays hospitals a portion of their unreimbursed care, so we get taxed for it. Second, the portion which SS doesn't pay, the hospital passes along as higher costs for PAID services to you and I.

    So - it matters.

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  33. Also, Terry, I absolutely think health care is a limited resource. However, for the reason I just named above, it cannot refuse care to anyone (in an ER setting).

    Also, as we age (as a population) the number of people needing care increases, and so it becomes more scarce to have enough staff/providers, so wages escalate, so more people join the workforce, and the scarcity may abate (as it is doing right now - the economic downturn has pushed many nurses back into the workforce). Regardless, the point is exactly as you (and I think I) have named, unreimbursed care (whether by aliens or not) consumes services which the rest of us wind up paying for regardless.

    The point, though, is that we are paying 'stupidly' by paying for ER care - it's very very poor in terms of effectiveness of prevention and long term care treatment.

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  34. KR, please, could you voluntarily omit the 'STFU' from your comments?

    If you desire someone to document an assumption or statement, do ask. But 'STFU' is hostile; just because it is an abbreviation doesn't change what it says.

    In advance, thank you for being considerate.

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  35. KR -

    I am happy to post your comment - but you need to not call me a liar - I am not wilfully misrepresenting your comments.

    Here is what I based my comments on:

    "The actual number of uninsured that we should be truly concerned with is about 10 million or so. The smart thing to do would be to create a proposal that would insure 5 million that really need it."


    It certainly seems to me that you were suggesting the idea that there are only 5MM people needing help.

    So - obviously, it wasn't a lie - yet you seem to throw that accusation out rather cassually. Let me help with that if I may - paraphrasing isn't lying. YOU do it pretty often - including exagerating things like suggesting that pro-government health care people want to claim that 199M people don't have coverage (again, that's my paraphrase) - now, I could call you a liar, because of course, NO ONE has asserted that, but I 'get' that you're framing the topic in your own way, not lying - exagerting sure, but not lying.

    In this case, you DID say that, "The smart thing to do would be to create a proposal that would insure 5 million that really need it" which implies (IMHO) that you think a. only 10M need coverage, and b. you only need to address 5MM who REALLY need it. Perhaps you were trying to say only cover half - and by doing so that will drive a market solution for the rest, but you DIDN'T say that. Perhaps you meant that truly 10M need coverage, but you only want to cover 5M initially, again, so that a market solution would perhaps be developed, but you DIDN'T say that. So, it's not unlikely that someone will infer that you meant exactly what you said, which was that you were guessing that 10M people need coverage, and that 5M REALLY need it.

    Bluntly KR, your tone is unacceptible. Unlike what you believe, it has NOTHING at all to do with truth (ie. you speaking it), and everything to do with the fact that we're spending too much time on your contortions of offense, singularity in wanting to ONLY talk about what usually are exagerations or vastly tangential arguments which normally are non-sequitors in the first place, which you interlace with insults and demands.

    For example, you have made comments about how people 'don't get' your arguments, can't handle your subtlety, but in the example above, all you've shown is that you either don't recall what you said, or you don't understand that people will paraphrase your comments or you DO understand it but chose to create unreasonable and unnecessarily hostile exchanges out of a desire to be pedantic as the focus of discussion. That's not of any value at all - people get your arguments fine, but you either wont grasp paraphrase or are so unnecessarily hostile that you have to create an exchange over something EASILY understood.

    DG has more patience for that than I do. I've tolerated it at her request, but you need to take a lesson from Jas, Terry, ToE, and TTuck. Focus on points, don't make demands, don't insult. If you cannot do that, your commentary will either be deleted or ignored as the basic rules of the road on this blog (my first post EVER) said, and I've outlined to you several times since.

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  36. TTuck - you made several comments, I'll try to deal with each - without (hopefully) missing the overall point.

    Yes something needs to be done but I don't think we need to do it by the 1st of August. However you look at the numbers of uninsured it does include some who can afford insurance and choose not to buy and some who are not citizens. Currently if something happens to them they will still get treated. "

    Agreed, some don't buy coverage, and some of those seek care, and then don't pay the bill. However, there isn't any way to effectgively change that. We CAN'T allow people to die in ER's (for the reasons I noted, and you understand clearly).

    There is a large portion of the population who has insurance through their employer or school and are happy with it.

    57% of the people have employer based health insurance - happy with it, I wouldn't say. Example, I can't get a medicine which is medically necessary, but because it is expensive, my drug insurer won't pay for it (They removed it from their formulary list). There are no other drugs which are effective enough to treat this. That doesn't make me happy. I would also suggest that many people are deeply worried that if they have a serious illness, they can't afford the coinsurance amounts (e.g. $2500/person $7500/family - annually). So, happy, I don't necessarily buy, but they DO have coverage at least.


    "People from all over the world come to the US for certain operations and treatments that are being done in the US and not elsewhere."

    Actually T, many people go to other countries for surgeries (on the back for example) which aren't done here - in part because the process for approving the treatment is more arduous, but also because there are some drugs or treatments which are so expenseive the insurance companies lobby to prevent their approval (or there is lobbying for other reasons) (e.g. RU 486)).

    The main problem is the ever increasing costs. As other posters have pointed out, uninsured add to this. So lets find out the true number of uninsured, why they are uninsured and tackle that problem first. How about looking at the problems with Medicare and Medicaid and seeing what can be done to fix them first? "

    Agreed, we have a. too many uninsured, and b. an aging populace and c. as costs increase, the number of uninsured increases.

    I think we know pretty well the number of uninsured people. We can quibble over a million or two, but it IS well over 40 million and is expected to be near 50 million in 18 months. So, as you ask, what to do?

    On Medicare, the chief complaint right now is that it doesn't pay enough - that means the 'fix' is either pay more, or reduce costs to suppliers. The cost component on a tactical level really can't get a lot lower - frankly you don't have a huge admin overhead on medicare claims - so then we have to pay more?? I don't think that is what anyone wants. So then, strategically, how do we reduce costs... probably only by addressing lifestyle/underlying health issues and addressing end of life costs... those are VERY VERY hard solutions. But the point is that 'fixing' Medicare, per the doctors, for them, is to pay more.

    If the government could point to Medicare and Medicaid as two of the best insurance policies in the country people would not be so leery of the government meddling in their policies. "

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  37. (continued..)

    Well, first, there are LOTS and LOTS and LOTS of not very user friendly private policies - Medicare is no more difficult to use than average - I say this based on having paid claims (in coordination) wiht Mediare, working with the health care payor FOR medicare, and in working with patients and doctors to have services approved BY Medicare. It works, it is not perfect to be sure - but it works. Waht is 'broken' is the rate of compensation - according to the doctors. The only fix for that is more people paying in IF we want to fix the payment side OR raising the Medicare tax rate - the latter is unpalletable.

    I read an article by Thomas Sowell the other day on cost of medical care and he pointed out that the cost of cars has gone up since we added airbags, air conditioning, dvd players. The cost of houses has gone up since we added dishwashers, air conditioners, double paned glass. Part of why the cost of medical care has gone up is that it is better. When you take out the number of people killed in auto accidents and violent crime the lifespan of the US is either the longest or very close to the longest in the world and this is with all the diabetes and obesity the original poster pointed out. So before we do something that causes unwanted changes (quality goes down) lets take some time and not try to push something through in a week to fix a problem that has been building up for several years."

    His assertions suggest that we have FAR FAR more automobile deaths than other westernized nations. I've never heard that. As for houses costing more, housing costs vary by the interest rate impacts on monthly payments and the relative wage scale nationally - it has almost nothing to do with new 'amenities'. Hosing prices during the late 80's and early 90's were omparatively flat (as compared to the late 70's and late 90's). Likewise, cars have new amenities and safety features (to be sure), but cars still are generally priced based on what is felt can be afforded, and in the late 70's Detriot (et.al.) went far more to a per unit profit model than a quantity model, so they priced accordingly.

    I believe our health statistics and rankings are accurate. There isn't much evidence suggesting that we're being negatively/artificially impacted by outside forces coming from what can be termed 'broad study' areas (like WHO) - so while what your author said MAY be true, it seems to me to be counter-interuitive.

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  38. Penigma wrote:
    believe our health statistics and rankings are accurate.
    It's not a question of whether the statistics are accurate, but whether they have the meaning that you (and many others) are giving them: that these statistics can be used to determine the quality of health care on a national scale.
    If Finland has a greater lifespan and lower infant mortality than the US, this does not mean that Finland has a 'better' health care system than the US, no matter what WHO says.
    It may be a fact that Fins live longer than Americans but it is opinion that this means that they have a better health care system. Lifestyle choices, cultural differences, education levels, etc, have a greater influence on these statistics than who pays for health care as the stats grow closer.

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  39. Terry,

    I want to briefly touch on what you'd said before, and then move on to this point.

    Do you accept that not covering aliens doesn't improve the situation meaningfully?

    I hope so - but if not, please explain how their health care service will be paid for if they are going to ER's and not paying themselves.

    As for the Fins having a better health care service system (better health care) than the US - I understand that you (and many) people, don't accept life expectancy and infant mortality are good measures, but they ARE accepted as good measures by doctors and many other health care clinicians. They measure geographic dispersion, economic enfranchisement/disenfranchisement, effectiveness of treatment of geriatric disease (the key area of cost in ANY health care system), prenatal planning, etc..

    As well, and equally telling, the US USED to be ranked in the top 5 for infant mortality (in 1980) as I recall. I KNOW we were 18th in just 1998, (and 21st in life expectancy). In looking at actual statistics, our IMR was 9.6 in 1989, and was 7.0 in 2004 - which means, despite DRAMATIC improvements in health care since 1990, our IMR is not substantially improved. That is what has allowed so many countries to pass us by.

    My point is, these statistics are well researched, and point to larger dynamics we can logically conclude support we aren't doing as well on health care as other nations. I understand it is more comfortable to question the facts than change, but if we do that, we'll never get anywhere. We have to accept some facts, while not perhaps without mitigating ideas, still represent the preponderance of evidence, are supported by other associated facts, and are the vastly logical conclusion.

    My counter question to you is this, what statistics would YOU use?

    (BTW, our IMR and Life Expectancy stats come from the US Census Bureau, not the WHO.)

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  40. Terry, in contrast, from 1980 to 1989, IMR improved from 12.6 to 9.6, a greater improvement in 9 years than we've seen in the past 20. There were NO significant improvements in neo-natal care during that time which outshine similar improvements since 1989 (e.g. we started paying some attention to nutrition in the 80's, but the focus on fetal-alchohol and folic acid, as well as our general ability to keep pre-mature babies alive has improved dramatically since 1989). In short, we SHOULD have seen more improvement, many other countries have during that period - so it's not a matter of hitting the 'learning curve wall', it's a matter of we aren't doing well with our poor and rural populations.

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  41. My counter question to you is this, what statistics would YOU use?
    My first instinct is to say that you have to be very careful when you use statistics at all, especially when you try to draw public policy from them.
    For example, the incarceration rate for young black men is about 1 in 10. That does not mean that any particular black young man is ninety percent free and ten percent incarcerated. Instead he will be 100% in prison or 100% free.
    I understand why public policy nabobs like statistics, but I don't think they can provide absolute measures like which country has a 'better' medical system. Obamacare might be rated as being better than the current system by 75% of Americans and worse by 25% of Americans. How can anyone say that the 75% are 'right' and the 25% are 'wrong'? All you can say is that they lost the public policy argument. You will certainly have no grounds for convincing one of the 25% percent that the fact that they have to wait 2 years, instead of two weeks, for a knee operation is because the system is now better than it was before.

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  42. Thanks for the reply Terry.

    However, a. Nabobs isn't a term we need to use here - these are HIGHLY educated and well-researched folks who provide the data we're talking about.

    b. as there isn't meaningful evidence to the contrary (like for example, cancer survival rates) - then we have to look at these statistics as likely to be accurately reflecting what they SAY they reflect - meaning life expectancy and infant mortality - at a minimum.

    Further though, this isn't about what IS the color blue - meaning, when 75% think blue is royal blue, while the other 25% think cyan is, it certainly is up to opinion.

    This however, is a situation where we have definable, measurable data points which the experts in the field agree are good general measures of effectiveness. Further, they are also agreed as reflecting access. I suppose you can argue that 25% of the people may see our health care as excellent because it treats skin cancer well (or some other arbitrary measure).

    These aren't arbitrary measures, they are, like measurements of weight, or the speed of a car, measurements the involved community agree are the best measures. The fact that uninvolved, and in some cases comparitively uneducated civilians may feel other metrics are better, doesn't make those other metrics better, nor does it make this a matter of opinion in the holistic sense.

    In short, if we follow your logic to it's logical conclusion we can NEVER draw logical conclusions from empirical, observable evidence, because we will always face the fact that SOME people will think otherwise.

    When we have a problem of this size, we need to move beyond attacking the measurement practice, especially when the measurements really aren't in question - we ahve to agree upon standards (which was done) for measurement, measure accurately - which was done - and then decide what to do with once we see the outcomes. That's where we are, we are not still deciding standards, except for those who want to ignore the empirical outcomes. The question for them is, are you chosing to do so for good reasons, or politically convenient ones?

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  43. Here is a novel idea for part of the problem. Everytime a citizen of Mexico (or any illegal just most are Mexican) goes to an emergency room the hospital treats them (I know they already do that), then send the bill to the govt stating in the bill the country of origin. Next yr when we send out our foreign aid we deduct those bills. So instead of giving Mexico 100 billion we give them 70 billion and a list of medical services we provided for their citizens. I am pretty sure we are giving enough foreign aid to most countries to cover the cost of their people who come here and get treated essentially for free. The sick illegals still get the treatment they need and it does not add to the amount the rest of us have to pay since our taxes already cover the foreign aid. Then Obama or whoever could truthfully say that our healthcare costs would not go up to cover people who are not citizens.

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  44. TT wrote:

    "Next yr when we send out our foreign aid we deduct those bills. "
    There was an interesting piece on the radio news this morning. We had deported a paraplegic brain damaged man back to Guatamala, rather than absorb his health care costs here. He was an illegal alien, who had been struck by one of our citizens, a drunk driver.

    Guatamala had promised to provide his care, but hasn't. He is experiencing severe seizures, not receiving even the most minimal care.

    The real kicker in this case? It was a state, not the feds, who sent him back. Apparently, this is a legal right the state does not have, but he is unable to do anything about it, because he is gone, and of course, not able to pursue any legal claims in his current condition.

    The problem I see with the proposed solution,is that we provide the aid for a reason. Not providing the aid we had decided to provide... doesn't so much solve the health care cost problem, as simply create a different problem (one which may be worse).

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  45. Actually DG, I think TTuck's idea is a pretty good one.

    First, he isn't advocating deportation - he's advocating 'sending' the country of origin the bill.

    Now, while many nations get nothing like enough in foriegn aid to pay for the costs of treating their ex-patriots here in the US, it still would send a loud and clear message - if you chose to have a dictatorial, backward, and economically crippled country by creating a nation where the rich and powerful make all the rules, and everyone else suffers, and so they come here, then you get to pay for thier care wherever they land. Maybe it is only symbolic, but it would certainly send an economic message about their conduct.

    The down side is they might prevent those who need care from emigrating - but in my John Locke view of the world, perhaps that then would motivate the populace to change their government. That said, it is naivete' in the extreme to think that the population can change the government unless the military is willing to step aside (it succeeded in the Ukraine because the military DID step aside, and failed in China and Iran because the military didn't).

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  46. I too, think TTucker's comment is appropriate, but is only a small part of the problem. The treatment of uninsured (presumably) illegal immigrants is a problem for some hospitals, but the problem of treating the uninsured isn't limited to treatment of illegal aliens. The uninsured cross generational, cultural and ethnic boundaries.

    The real problem is how to get health care to all in America that need it. If they can pay for it, then they should, either through insurance by their employer or through insurance paid for by the individual with assistance from the government if necessary. However, even if we have 100% health insurance coverage, that won't bring down health care costs, and that's our real problem.
    The reason that health insurance premiums are high, and keep rising, is a combination of factors, including (but not limited to) the aging of our population and hence the need for more medical care, our society's continued love affair with too much food (obesity), and lack of simple preventative care.

    When I was in college, I had a number of friends who didn't have health insurance, but as college students, they had part time jobs that didn't provide health insurance, and they couldn't afford insurance on their own. In many cases, these were students who were not eligible for coverage under their parents policy. The university offered a cheap policy, that provided only hospitalization coverage.

    If they got sick, (for instance, with a sore throat and a fever), they would try and self treat it with over the counter medications, and hope it would get better. Most of the time it did, Thank God. If it didn't, then they would delay going to the doctor, because they couldn't afford the $75 doctor visit, the $300 in tests and the $200 in antibiotics. So, eventually, they would end up in the emergency room, and be admitted to the hospital, and the insurance company would pay many times what they would have paid if there had been a quick trip to the doctor, a throat swab, and antibiotics to treat the infection before it was out of control.

    My point is: preventative and primary care medicine isn't sexy or glamorous, but until everyone can be routinely seen as needed by primary care physicians, in my opinion we will continue to have escalating costs and our health as a nation (economically and physically) will not improve.

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  47. Just one thing here, infant mortality rate is a very bad measure of a health care system. Different countries measure it different ways. In the US any infant taken from the womb alive counts. Two thirds of US infant deaths are infants born prior to 32weeks, about half the countries with IMR better than us do not count infants until after 32 weeks because the chance of living to a yr is so low. Life expectancy is not a real great measure of a health care system as there are lots of other factors that go into it. The US is the most ethnically diverse country in the world and so has nearly every genetically passed disease in the world. Sickle cell is practically non-existant in Finland for example. What matters is compare apples to apples, what are the survival rates for cancer? What are the survival rates for heart attacks? Did you know that about 85% of all women (25-64)get a regular pap smear and in Great Britain the figure is 58%? If you get cancer in the US your chance of surviving at least 5 yrs is better than anywhere else in the world. About 2-3% better than Canada and 15-20% better than Europe. I am not saying we do not have problems with our health care but we do need to be careful about it. Why not just take the uninsured and put them in the pool with the current insurance companies. Most companies get huge discounts and they have far less than 10 million people working for them. Spread them out among all the insurance companies and I bet the government could pay the premiums for less than they are talking about spending on this plan.

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