A Penigma - a mystery, under a pseudonym: March 2022

Thursday, March 31, 2022

Chernobyl is a good defence

OK, getting back on my feet after leaving my narc wife, which is something that Doggone has been waiting for me to do for the last 12 years!

Anyway, I mentioned Chernobyl in a previous post. It seems that:

Several hundred Russian soldiers were forced to hastily withdraw from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine after suffering “acute radiation sickness” from contaminated soil, according to Ukrainian officials.

The Russians really effed this one! https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-suffer-acute-radiation-sickness-after-digging-chernobyl-trenches

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

SSDD 2

The Russians are pretty much back at "Go" despite all their losses. They have rolled back their surrender demands, but the Ukrainians aren't calling it quits until the bully has been smacked down.

Monday, March 28, 2022

SSDD

More videos of demoralised Russian soldiers (Hi, Mitch, watch this space), yet no Russian surrender.

Putin is doing a better job of trashing Russia than what he has been alleged to have done in the US.

BTW, my cousin is a medic in the Kharkiv region and doing OK.

Family issues have me occupied.

Sunday, March 27, 2022

The disaster which is Russia's war in Ukraine continues

And they are getting the shit pounded out of them. I could get into the reasons, but it was a failure before it began,.

Any hope of keeping the Donbass and Crimea for Russia are gone. Of course, that situation should never have happened, but the Obama administration let them happen. No real attempts to embargo Russia were made.

Some companies still aren't complying. Russia needs to be squeezed economically, even if it means discomfort for Europeans. What they would go through by having to turn down the hear and cut back on driving isn't as bad as what Ukrainians are going through.

Saturday, March 26, 2022

Russia "reframes" its war goals in Ukraine

Which is a way to get around that the "special military operation" has been a massive failure for Russia.

A joke from Moscow: "According to Putin the special military operation is really a conflict btw Russia and NATO about World dominance. Whats the situation now?" "Russia has lost 15000 troops, 6 generals, 500 tanks, 3 ships, 100 planes and 1000 trucks. NATO hasn't arrived yet."

Moscow could have mounted a much more limited offensive if capturing the whole of Donbass had been the objective from the start. That would have eliminated the effort and losses involved in invading Ukraine from the north, east and south.

"Obviously they have completely failed in everything they've set out to do and so now they are redefining what the purpose is so they can declare victory," said Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. army forces in Europe who now works for the Center for European Policy Analysis. "Clearly they do not have the ability to continue sustained large-scale offensive operations... Their logistics problems have been apparent to everybody, they've got serious manpower issues and the resistance has been way beyond anything they could have possibly imagined."

Another problem for Russia was that the "liberation" was unwanted as evidenced by peaceful resistance. I wanted to do a piece on the Bayraktar TB2 drone, but that has been covered very well. On the other hand, here we have protesters in Svobody Square in Kherson singing the Byraktar Song:

Here we have a crowd of residents of Russian-occupied Slavutych in northern Ukraine forcing Russian troops to run with just their chants of “fuck off”, “go home, murderers”, and “glory to ukraine” despite being shot at.

So, what we are seeing is poorly equipped troops in an ill-conceived action meeting resistance both non-violent and military with predictrable results.

And the Ukrainian Minstry of Defence provides the information if you want to steal a Russian tank:

https://sprotyv.mod.gov.ua/portfolio/t-72/

Friday, March 25, 2022

Russians judge Kyiv "too difficult". Kherson back in Ukrainian Control.

From Le Monde online

Nothing like being away from your computer to see this when the browser opens up. I would have liked to see Russia unconditionally surrendered. Judging Kyiv "too difficult" is a bit of a let down, but still funny. The Azov Batallion will show them Donbass is "trop dur".

Oh, and another city is back in Ukrainian control.

I was predicting mutinies in the Russian army. They've begun in earnest.

As I keep saying, waiting for the Russians to surrender is like:

Русский военный корабль, иди нахуй

And people believe these clowns could have swung the 2016 election!

Russians give up, you're getting beaten badly.

I keep waking up expecting to hear that Russia has finally surrendered, but Putain has doubled down on his losing bet. They are actually hurting their military while helping Ukraine build theirs.

As I keep saying, waiting for the Russian surrender is like:

Thursday, March 24, 2022

Russia's War on Ukraine enters its Second Month and they really should give up

The problem is that the Russians would have to make serious concessions if they surrender. They aren't in a position to ask for much as their military is being destroyed. I've heard it said that Putain would rather start World War III than admit his army was beaten by the Hostomel Territorial Defence Corps.

Seriously. In a virtual address to NATO, President Zelensky said that he has one demand. “After such a war against Russia… Please, never, never again tell us that our army does not meet NATO standards.” Zelensky added “But NATO has yet to show what the Alliance can do to save people. To show that this is truly the most powerful defense association in the world. And the world is waiting. And Ukraine is very much waiting, for real action."

Western sources need to start taking Ukraine seriously because people who have trained with the Ukrainian Army prior to the war have only praise. Money and supplies are nice, but they need to be on the ground: not on paper.

I am also amazed that Western news sources are not reporting that the Russian forces have been pretty much contained around Kyiv. A month into Russia’s war against Ukraine - Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa and other major cities are under the Ukrainian flag. That means the war will move to the Eastern part which is where the worst fighting has been for most of this war.

It's good that the pressure is off Kyiv, but things are really bad in the Eastern War zone. The people in the occupied territories are being mistreated by Russian forces. There are documented cases of War crimes. Also, the Russians are admitting they are not doing well in communications intercepted by Ukrainian military intelligence.

It's amusing when people say that Ukraine should be thankful for the aid from Western Countries. While nice on paper and good for PR, it hasn't really reached Ukraine.

The situation is pretty much the same as it was during the time of the OUN-UPA: Ukrainians are fighting on their own with little outside support. I know Russian propaganda wants to paint the Azov Battalion as Nazis, but they are Ukrainian patriots like the UPA was. The units are much more of a cross section of Ukrainian society than Russian propaganda would have you believe. Cool, this was in my search:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-azov-battalion-putins-excuse-for-war-against-nazis-in-ukraine/ar-AAVnfI8

https://tinyurl.com/3bzck5m3

I guess when your country, Russia, illegally invades another country and commits war crimes you have to try to make yourself look good. Especially when your getting the shit kicked out of your large army.

Russia cannot get out of the mess it created for itself without being seriously hurt.

There is a petition to NATO countries which is asking them to acknowledge:

Russia is an outlaw terrorist state threatening world peace -
RU is waging genocidal war on Ukraine to extinguish UA as an independent nation
RU's main objective is to see the end of the rules-based intl order

Wednesday, March 23, 2022

Six common mistakes foreign journalists covering Russian invasion of Ukraine make

My note: I mention that I get my info direct from the sources. Well, they aren't really happy with how this war is being covered. And I agree with what they say here, so. This is the complete piece from the New Voice of Ukraine, posted with permission:

https://english.nv.ua/nation/six-common-mistakes-foreign-journalists-covering-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-make-50227712.html

NV is publishing an open letter to the foreign media covering Russian invasion of Ukraine from Ukrainian media organizations, reporters, photographers, media managers and communication professionals

Dear colleagues,

On February 24 2022, Russia began an unprovoked full scale invasion of Ukraine, a massive escalation of their eight-year war in Donbas in east Ukraine. Russia’s war is conducted along four axes, attacking all major Ukrainian cities with missiles, air strikes and in most instances, ground forces. Untold numbers of civilians and servicemen have been killed. In just over three weeks, more than three million Ukrainians have become refugees in Europe. Four members of the media community have been killed by Russian forces: Oleksandra Kuvshynova, Brent Renaud, Evgen Sakun and Pierre Zakrzewski.

Russian forces kidnap Ukrainian journalists in order to silence them, thus a Ukrainian journalist Viktoriya Roschina and Oleh Baturin spent 6 and 8 days in captivity after disappearing. Ukrainian photojournalist Maks Levin disappeared on March 13th while reporting from the frontline near Kyiv. A publisher from Melitopol Mikhail Kumok and three journalists - Yevgeniya Boryan, Yuliya Olkhovska and Lyubov Chaika - has been also detained for 1 day and have been pressured to collaborate with Russian occupational regime in their city.

Simultaneously Russia has been attacking our core values of truthful, fact-driven and honest reporting through continuous disinformation campaigns. Many people are not aware of the scale and depth of these campaigns, and their full impact is yet to be felt.

Damn. The Russians Still haven't surrendered! Part II!

According to the Wall Street Journal (https://tinyurl.com/2p8w9kcw) :

NATO says that up to 40,000 Russian troops have been killed, wounded, taken prisoner or are missing in Ukraine, said a senior military official from the alliance.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization calculates the figure based on information provided by Ukrainian authorities and information obtained from Russia – both officially and unintentionally, the official said.

NATO estimates that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since the invasion began on Feb. 24. Using statistical averages from past conflicts that for every casualty roughly three soldiers are wounded, NATO analysts reach their total figure.

Russia began its invasion with roughly 190,000 troops. It has since brought in additional troops from Chechnya, Syria and other locations.

As I said, I am way ahead of the news cycle and have heard confirmed reports that the Russian army has been beaten around Kyiv. Makariv, Bucha, Irpin, Dmyrivka communities have been retaken by the Ukrainian military, but those communities remain under constant enemy fire. I have heard that the Russians in the East of Kyiv have also been beaten. That means the war shifts to the Eastern part of Ukraine where the Azov Battalion is defending Mariupol. Source: https://rubryka.com/en/2022/03/23/zsu-vzyaly-v-kiltse-irpin-buchu-ta-gostomel/

So, why was Russia given the advantage and Ukraine going to get defeated according to Western Intelligence sources? Ukraine's social media is filled with disappointment at the quality of Western military analysis, in particular, over-estimating the ability of the Russian army. Most people explain this as Western experts reading Russian sources and believed them. On the other hand, Ukrainians had direct practical knowledge, but they were pretty much ignored by the Western Agencies. Now, The Ukrainian military and defence studies community also produced a lot of literature in the last 8 years will probably be read, but it's too late now.

I have to admit that I though the Russian military would have done slightly better, but I knew the Ukrainians would put up incredibly strong resistance. I also didn't expect the amount of unification that the Russian invasion and subsequent war would cause.

Damn. The Russians Still haven't surrendered!

Let's start with a quote from an article in Politico,The Real Goal of Kremlin Disinformation Isn’t What You Think:

"We live in a hyperactive attention economy of unprecedented scale and intensity. And as we swipe and scroll through our news feeds, the Kremlin is biding its time and waiting for us to succumb to 'Ukraine fatigue'. In fact, they are banking on it."

That draws a few interesting observations not all realted to the War in Ukraine. But the most pertinent observation isn't that I have fatigue, but I get more and more annoyed. In fact, it makes it even more important that Russia gets hammered in any surrender agreement. Or to paraphrase Basil Fawlty,

"You keep mentioning the war."
"Well, you started it."
"We didn't start it."
"Yes, you did...you invaded Ukraine."

Part of me wants to see Russia get as hammered as Germany was after the 14-18 War, but that treaty was too harsh. Anyway, This is today's update from the New Voivce of Ukraine:

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been going on for a month. Today, March 23rd, is the 28th day of Putin's war.

UPDATE (1233): Operational information of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Russian invasion as of 1200.
·        The return of certain units of the Republic of Belarus to points of permanent deployment has been partially confirmed. At the same time, the Lukashenka regime continues to hold a significant group of troops near the state border of Ukraine;
·        The invaders tried to advance to the area of the village of Teterivske in Kyiv Oblast (about 70 kilometers north-west of central Kyiv), but due to limited forces they did not succeed and were forced to withdraw.
·        As a result of the fighting in the area around Izyum, the Ukrainian defense forces destroyed up to 60% of the personnel and military equipment of an invading Russian force.
·        On the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea in the area of Dzhankoy, the arrival and concentration of personnel and military equipment of units of the armed forces of the Russian Federation has been recorded.

·        The Ukrainian Defense Forces are conducting a stabilization operation in certain areas, holding back the advance of the enemy, and in certain directions forcing the enemy to retreat.

Which takes us back to the Politico article which gets into how Russian propaganda works. The best way to counter propaganda is to know how it works. Again, that has interesting ramifications, especially for the Russiagate Crowd. In fact, it confirms my opinion of Russiagate, but that is totally off subject since the an important part is:

Predictive projection. Predictive projection is a preemptive flying of a false flag. If you want to understand what the Kremlin will do next, pay attention to what it says others will do first. Before Putin’s invasion, Russian officials claimed that Ukraine was preparing to taunt the 150,000 Russian troops amassed on its border and attack its own sovereign eastern territory under Kremlin occupation. Now Russian state media is conjuring the specter of Ukraine building a “dirty bomb” and making biological weapons in secret labs with American conspirators. Russian military officials are tying themselves in knots to allege that Ukrainians in the city of Dnipro are laying mines in their own hospitals so as to cause them to explode while Moscow’s jets fly overhead. Such ominous finger-pointing is a characteristic projection of the Kremlin’s own actions and intentions.

In other words, when Russia is talking about biolabs or chemical warfare, it means that Russia may use those methods. In fact, Russia is using landmines in Ukraine. The video above shows where the Russians want to take this war.

Bottom line is Russia has its back against a wall by continuing a losing war. Their intentions are not good.

And the Ukrainians are the real protectors of the World since the "superpowers" are messing with the world.

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

End of the Ukraine War????

this story is true, that Ukrainians have surrounded the Russian Army at Bucha, NW of Kyiv.

I'm seeing numerous reports, and harassing official Russian sites with them, that the Russian forces west of Kyiv are out of food, fuel, and other supplies. The Russian army is stuck on roads. Cutting supply lines would be almost the same as creating a pocket. It is well known that the Russian supply chains and logistics were shit from the start. It will be the biggest defeat of a Russian army until now if this is true. A rough estimate of 9 thousand Russians would be trapped if the pocket is sealed. Ukraine now needs to start worrying about too many POWs.

The thing is that this has been a major focus for Russia. It's not about Kyiv falling but about diverting large amounts of Ukrainian troops. Then Ukrainian units can be freed up to save the east.

Additionally, Fighting in and around the southern port city of Mariupol remains fierce, as Russia tries to claim a first strategic victory after weeks of fighting. It now includes naval shelling launched from the Sea of Azov, the senior defense official said.

Near the southern city of Mykolaiv, there are now signs that the Russians are repositioning themselves outside the city to the south after facing fierce resistance from Ukrainians, senior U.S. defense official says.

As reported elsewhere, there is a Ukrainian effort afoot to retake terrain they had lost to Russia. Pentagon isn’t commenting on specific locations, but senior defense official says “we’re starting to see indications” that Ukraine is “now able and willing to take back territory.”

That means the Russians are toast! As I have been saying all along, I am amazed they haven't surrendered long ago. The problem is that Putain sees defeat as a moral failure.

Well, Putain has failed in so many ways!

A tale of two countries

Or why a lot of people on the left (and right) are talking out their asses.

I have to admit my knowledge of Ukraine, and Belarus, is very limited, but I appear to have a better knowledge of the region than most "experts". But the people I am talking about are the pundits on the left who are siding with Putain, whether consciously or not. These are the people who decry US "imperialism" through its unjustified invasions blahblablah. The ones who scream about why people don't care about Syria blahblahblah. NATO is using Ukraine as a puppet blahblahblah.

The ones that anyone with a shred of knowledge about this war can tell these pundit haven't a fucking idea what they are talking about.

Or they are complete whackjobs.

They can be countered quite simply since Ukraine has been an independent nation since 1991. That independence was guaranteed by Russia, the United Kingdom, and US through the 1994 Budapest Accord. The gist of that accord was that Ukraine would be neutral, not join NATO, and in return give up the third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world.

In short, Ukraine was promised neutrality by Russia for not joining NATO and giving up nuclear weapons.

Since then, Ukraine has been fumbling to try and create a nation. It finally gets to a point where it is getting things together and Russia decides to invade.

That pretty much shoots down the left wing talking points. They show hypocrisy by parroting the unjustified invasions thing, yet not decrying the invasion of Ukraine. It's not NATO or the west that is pushing the nations neighbouring Russia to want to join: it's a long history of Russian aggression. In fact, these people are supporting a nation with policies they claim to dislike.

You can't scream about large aggressive nations with bloated militaries invading countries without any justification and support Russia. Likewise, not doing anything is helping to destroy nuclear non-proliferation. In fact, Russia's actions are truly detrimental to the international framework for keeping peace. These lefties would do better to say both Russia and the US engage in actions which are harmful to peace, since they both act in similar ways. At this point, the US has not openly threatened a nuclear first strike. That is one factor which tilts the scale to making Russia the worse actor.

The next one is Russian disdain for human rights and national integrity, which is why this is called "A tale of two countries". In this case, Ukraine and Belarus. Ukraine is working on becoming a democratic nation that would ultimately become part of the European Union.

Belarus is what Putain wants to turn Ukraine into. A true puppet state. Alexander Lukashenko has been the president of that nation since its "independence" in 1994. This is despite an election in 2020 which Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. No surprise that Lukashenko has referred to himself as the "last dictator" in Europe.

Elections are not considered to be free and fair by international monitors, opponents of the regime are repressed, and the media is not free, leading to sanctions being imposed on Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials. Opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claimed to have won a decisive first-round victory with at least 60% of the vote in 2020, and called on Lukashenko to start negotiations. Her campaign subsequently formed the Coordination Council to facilitate a transfer of power and stated that it was ready to organize "long-term protests" against the official results.

And Tsikhanouskaya has been in exile since then. And her husband has been sentenced to 18 years in jail by a sham trial.

Russia is trying to get Belarus to aid in Ukraine, but Lukashenko is shrewder than Putain. Lukashenko knows that his government will topple should he send troops to Ukraine. Belarus dissidents are waiting to fight government troops in Ukraine. Not to mention rumours that Bealrus troops were mutinying early on in the war and refusing to fight in Ukraine. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60827109

Ukraine does not want to be a clone of Belarus, which is why they are fighting. Ukraine wants its independence.

You would think people who claim to be freedom loving would side with the free nation that has been attacked. Especially when a belligerent neighbour invades without reason and commits documented human rights violations.

Monday, March 21, 2022

Eliot Cohen on Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?

Neat article in the Atlantic on why the West is in denial about what is happening in Ukraine. I have to admit feeling pretty smug right now: even if I was slightly pessimistic at the start. I was expecting this to be an asymmetic war par excellence. Instead, it is turning out to be a slaughter of the Russian military. I can't say I am that surprised since my first opinion was based on Ukrainian forces being outgunned. Ukraine's military was in much better shape to fight this than I originally guessed.

But that sort of goes to the crux of this article. Most everyone focused on Russia. Not many people knew about Ukraine.

At the same time, there are few analysts of the Ukrainian military—a rather more esoteric specialty—and thus the West has tended to ignore the progress Ukraine has made since 2014, thanks to hard-won experience and extensive training by the United States, Great Britain, and Canada. The Ukrainian military has proved not only motivated and well led but also tactically skilled, integrating light infantry with anti-tank weapons, drones, and artillery fire to repeatedly defeat much larger Russian military formations. The Ukrainians are not merely defending their strong points in urban areas but maneuvering from and between them, following the Clausewitzian dictum that the best defense is a shield of well-directed blows.

It has been said that wars create stories. Ukrainian kids grew up with the stories of the OUN-UPA (Organisation of Ukrainian Nationalist-Ukrainian Patriotic Army) and how they fought both sides in the Second World War. They knew about how the UPA would steal equipment from the Nazis or the Soviets. People in the west heard Soviet propaganda on the "Banderists". Ukrainian people, especially those in the diaspora, knew the truth of what exactly the OUN-UPA was. As I said, I was expecting a guerilla war, but I didn't know the strength of the Ukrainian military. Misjudging that strength was a fault in the analysis: especially that of the Russian invaders:

The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven. The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv are suggestive. Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead, depending on your source, which implies (using a low-end rule of thumb about the ratios of such things) a minimum of nearly 30,000 taken off the battlefield by wounds, capture, or disappearance. Such a total would represent at least 15 percent of the entire invading force, enough to render most units combat ineffective. And there is no reason to think that the rate of loss is abating—in fact, Western intelligence agencies are briefing unsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day.

So, no, those numbers of Russian losses aren't high: they may indeed be conservative. As Prof. Cohen points out, Russian blunders are apparent to even novices.

I also have to agree with his conclusion:

The Ukrainians are doing their part. Now is the time to arm them on the scale and with the urgency needed, as in some cases we are already doing. We must throttle the Russian economy, increasing pressure on a Russian elite that does not, by and large, buy into Vladimir Putin’s bizarre ideology of “passionarity” and paranoid Great Russian nationalism. We must mobilize official and unofficial agencies to penetrate the information cocoon in which Putin’s government is attempting to insulate the Russian people from the news that thousands of their young men will come home maimed, or in coffins, or not at all from a stupid and badly fought war of aggression against a nation that will now hate them forever. We should begin making arrangements for war-crimes trials, and begin naming defendants, as we should have done during World War II. Above all, we must announce that there will be a Marshall Plan to rebuild the Ukrainian economy, for nothing will boost their confidence like the knowledge that we believe in their victory and intend to help create a future worth having for a people willing to fight so resolutely for its freedom.

World War III started the moment Putain threatened to use nuclear weapons. This war must result in nuclear disarmament or any crazy can do what they will.

This war is and can be fought without having to lob nuclear weapons. But the maniacs threating to do that need to be soundly defeated.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

The War in Ukraine: Let's do the numbers!

OK, The title clues you in that the Russians still haven't given up. This is despite their being walloped both militarily and economically. I diverge from a lot of Ukrainians in that I think a lot of Russians are against this war, but it's hard to make your voice heard in a totalitarian state.

That said: Let's discuss the numbers.

My belief in the credibility of Ukraine's numbers for Russian losses are not coloured by my attitude toward toward Ukraine. I make it pretty clear that I am the LEAST Ukrainian of my family members. On the other hand, I do feel for the country and my family members there. So...

I thought they were pretty inflated early on, but the Russians talking about peace early in the game is a big hint that those numbers might be correct. If asked early in the war, I would have predicted that the Russians would have been able to make a foothold in the East to about the Dnipro River in the south up to Dnipro (city) and then a line northward to Kharkiv. The fighting would have been heaviest in that area. There would also be action in Kyiv.

The reality is that the Russians are basically holding close to the Russia-Ukraine border and they don't even hold that much of the territory there. Kyiv is hit by sporadic artillery and missile fire. The Russians are keeping their distance from Ukrainian territory with the exception of a few cities.

I know that the equipment losses are verified by Western intelligence agencies using satellites. But most of those numbers are released days after the numbers from the Ukrainian defence forces. There are independent groups that verify the losses on both sides as well.

[EDIT]And I forgot to add that I mentioned the leaked report by the FSB member early in the war that said:

A report thought to be by an analyst in the FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, said that the Russian dead could already number 10,000. The Russian defence ministry has acknowledged the deaths of only 498 of its soldiers in Ukraine.[EDIT]

There are a lot of reasons that Russia is getting pounded heavily by Ukraine. Ukraine 2022 is not Poland 1939, but that doesn't mean people outside Ukraine should take this war lightly.

Putain would not have launched this if he didn't feel that the West would once again do nothing about Russia's imperialist ambitions. Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, says "the degree of progress falls short of what we would like and how the dynamic of developments demands of the Ukrainian side" – meaning Russia's ongoing assault on its cities.

OK, Ukraine can hold out until it has destroyed Russia's military. And that time is coming soon.

I find it funny that some of the people who like Red Dawn are cheering the Russian forces in Ukraine. It's amazing they are too ignorant to see what exactly they are doing. Same team: different colours. Putain is still a KGB agent.

Sunday, March 20, 2022

"News" on the War in Ukraine

I can't believe that anyone vaguely intelligent parrots that Ukraine is somehow part of Russia: especially since most of the fighting in this war has been in the Donbas region of Ukraine (the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, collectively called the Donbas). Or Why this might get confusing: Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR, respectively) are home to armed Russian-backed separatist groups of ETHNIC RUSSIANS!!!!

These areas may have been somewhat pro-Russian at one time, but they are resisting the Russian invasion. Additionally, they are the ones being hit hardest with fighting. So, why are the Russians killing other Russians: especially the ones the Russians are alleging they were protecting by starting this war?

Fortunately, the Russians are getting clobbered big time by the Ukrainian army. From Michael Kofman:

Depreciating combat effectiveness sets the stage for either a significant operational pause along most fronts or a ceasefire. This does not necessarily imply a political settlement, but a period to reorganize, consolidate, and resupply. An end to the first chapter of this war. I think Moscow is searching for something it can use to declare a victory. Taking the Donbas, and having leverage to attain concessions from Kyiv is probably what they're looking to accomplish at this point. This is at best a guess.

He's not very optimistic about what may come next: If there is another phase, Russian forces will probably try to compensate for poor performance by inflicting greater destruction.

At this point, Russia hasn't used nuclear or chemical weapons. The scary part is wondering how crazy Putain happens to be and will he use those weapons?

And for the people wondering about World War III.

It's already here.

The real question is how much longer will people pretend to be neutral in this War?

The New American Century has arrived, and it's not going to plan.

You can guess that Russia has not surrendered by the title of this post. In fact, the positions have been pretty much stalled since the first day of the war. That leaves me with "housekeeping" tasks: such as educating people in the West about the situation.

First off, The myth of Russian military might has been blown to bits. I'm not exactly sure what to say about their intelligence capability (that is information gathering, instead of national IQ). Rumours are that the FSB advised against this, but Putain crashed ahead betting his political capital on this...and losing the bet badly. The FSB remain powerless to stop the madness.

The fact that Russia hit the negotiating table early on is the biggest hint that the war is indeed going badly. The amusing part is that Russia thinks it can get concessions from Ukraine. The longer this drags on the less likely that is to happen. In fact, Ukrainians are more likely to expect a treaty with conditions that make what Germany received in the Treaty of Versailles look generous.

The fact that Ukraine has been the protector of the free world pretty much on its own hasn't been lost anywhere other than the US and Russia.

I am amazed at people in the US who spout Russian propaganda (See https://youtu.be/qZPK4tZi21E).

First off, Ukraine is not part of Russia. It was part of the Soviet Union, but it was never really part of Russia. The territory of contemporary Ukraine used to belong to several empires or states, so some versions of Ukrainian identity do not even have anything to do with Russia at all. A short and simplified history:

In the early 1600s, Ukraine was a group of provinces under the control of Poland. Religious friction was inevitable: Poland was primarily Catholic, while the people in the region of Ukraine were primarily Orthodox. In 1648, a revolt led by the Ukrainian Cossacks broke part of the Ukrainian lands away from Poland. Until 1654, Ukrainians and Russians lived in two separate states. For almost 400 years, from the 13th to the 17th centuries, they were not in the same political structure and lived under different religious influences.

Resistance to Polish domination came from the Cossacks, a group with historically opaque ethnic origins. In 1654, they allied with Russia to establish a territory under their control, called a Hetmanate; it was an early form of what would become Ukraine, and it included Ukraine’s modern-day capital, Kyiv. Mapmakers of that time labeled Cossack areas as Ukraine.

After 1654, the Poles were less of a concern to the Cossacks, but independence remained a key goal. In 1708, when the Swedish army sought to push the Russians out of Ukraine, Ivan Mazepa, a Cossack leader, joined with the Swedes. The Russians routed their opponents, hobbling an independent Cossack state from that point forward.

Ukraine became a region divided by competing empires. The western provinces, initially under Polish dominion, were later governed by the Austro-Hungarian Empire. By the mid-19th century, the bulk of Ukrainian territory operated under Russian rule. Russian rule was harsh, and a sense of grievance began to foster a Ukrainian national identity.The Ukrainian language had taken shape over centuries. By the 1800s, a standard form had emerged. By the mid-1800s, these writers began to publish Ukrainian primers and expand the teaching of the language in schools.

The breakdown of the Tsarist empire and the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 proved to be a key turning point for Ukraine. Ukraine declared independence in 1918 and maintained that status until 1921. That led to a period where the government in Kyiv changed hands five times in 1919 alone. The Bolsheviks took advantage of the turmoil, focusing their attention on undermining Ukrainian national sentiment.

When the Bolsheviks seized Kyiv in early 1918, they targeted sites that were part of Ukrainian identity. They shelled the Ukrainian museum established by the head of the Ukrainian state, Mykhailo Hrushevsky. People caught speaking Ukrainian on the streets of Kyiv were shot. The independent government in Kyiv had claimed the eastern provinces as part of the new nation, but this spawned its own tensions. Although the Donbas region was majority Ukrainian.

Russians were moved into the territory of Ukraine during the Soviet period. Additionally, ethnic Ukrainians were moved to other parts of Russia during that period. Also, There was pressure from the Ukrainian guerilla resistance during the Soviet period. That was the reason the Soviets created a Ukrainian entity under the Soviet Union in 1922. Ukraine had some jurisdiction over its domestic affairs, but foreign policy, defense and commerce were in the hands of Moscow.

The Soviet state under Stalin took on a more centralized and Russian tone after a period in which Ukrainian language and culture were supported in the 1920s. The Stalinist period and beyond was accompanied by greater repression. The longer Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union, the more its antagonism toward Russia grew.

Ukrainians have been victimised by both the Soviet Union and Russia. Key events include the famine (or Holodomor) under Stalin that killed perhaps 4 million or more Ukrainians, as well as the 1986 nuclear disaster in Chernobyl (or, to the Ukrainians, Chornobyl), which occurred about 60 miles north of Kyiv. This war is a continuation of that victimisation.

Sorry, there is no love between the people of Ukraine and Russia. That is why the East is resisting the invading Russian forces. People who repeat the myth that Ukraine is part of Russia are repeating an erroneous transformation of a complex, entangled history between the two countries into a simplistic morality tale that serves Russian interests.

This war is going to have a significant effect on the power structure of the world since it is showing China, Russian, and the US powereless to stop the war. Likewise it is showing that there needs to be a stronger system for stopping armed aggression. This is truly showing that War is indeed NOT the answer. More nations have fallen from their belligerence than most people understand. But this war is showing that unarmed resistance might beat the most powerful armies.

Saturday, March 19, 2022

Russia, Ukraine, but no gates.

OK, here's the Great Gate of Kyiv by Modest Mussorgsky:

That was not exactly a true statement, but it has nothing to do with US politics and more to do with Ukrainian Culture. In this case, the Great Gate of Kyiv.

Actually, The Golden Gate of Kyiv (Ukrainian: Золоті ворота, Zoloti vorota),which was the main gate in the 11th century fortifications of Kyiv, the capital of Kievan Rus'. It was named in imitation of the Golden Gate of Constantinople. The structure was dismantled in the Middle Ages, leaving few vestiges of its existence. It was rebuilt completely by the Soviet authorities in 1982, though no images of the original gates have survived. The decision has been immensely controversial because there were many competing reconstructions of what the original gate might have looked like.

So, we now have Kyivgate.

The amusing thing is that this was the theme song for the tv show, The New Statesman. Other silly cultural appropriation is the Mouret Fanfare used as the theme for Masterpiece Theatre. Mouret was a court composer for Louis XIV!

More pics of the great gate here: https://funart.pro/2439-zolotye-vorota-vorota-ukraina-21-foto.html

And https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Gate%2C_Kyiv for more info on this gate.