Monday, April 8, 2019

Marbury v Madison or why the Heller and McDonald decisions are wrong

Scalia fucked it.

I'll say it again. Scalia fucked it as does anyone who buys into the bullshit which is comprised by the Heller and McDonald decisions.

In fact, those decisions should be laughed at and any academic who is shit for brains enough to give them the slightest credence should be barred from the practise of law since they ignore a fundamental basis of US Constitutional law.

Marbury v. Madison, 5 U.S. 137 (1803).

It's one of the first cases any constitutional law class covers, which is why anyone who gives Heller and McDonald a shred of legitimacy should be barred from the practise of law. Why? First off.
Marbury v. Madison, 5 U.S. 137, was a U.S. Supreme Court case that established the principle of judicial review in the United States, meaning that American courts have the power to strike down laws, statutes, and some government actions that contravene the U.S. Constitution.
Judicial review for constitutionality is not a power granted by the US Constitution: it comes from this case.

More importantly it centred around a clause in the US Constitution (hint, hint, for those shit for brains who want to call themselves "Constitutional Scholars").

 Facts of the case

Thomas Jefferson defeated John Adams in the 1800 presidential election. Before Jefferson took office on March 4, 1801, Adams and Congress passed the Judiciary Act 1801, which created new courts, added judges, and gave the president more control over appointment of judges. The Act was essentially an attempt by Adams and his party to frustrate his successor, as he used the act to appoint 16 new circuit judges and 42 new justices of the peace. The appointees were approved by the Senate, but they were not valid until their commissions were delivered by Secretary of State James Madison.

The whole thing hinged on the interpretation of the US Constitution: in particular the clauses in it: 

"These are the clauses of the Constitution and laws of the United States which affect this part of the case." 

"Although that clause of the Constitution which requires the President to commission all the officers of the United States may never have been applied to officers appointed otherwise than by himself, yet it would be difficult to deny the legislative power to apply it to such cases. Of consequence, the constitutional distinction between the appointment to an office and the commission of an officer who has been appointed remains the same as if in practice the President had commissioned officers appointed by an authority other than his own.

"It has been insisted at the bar, that, as the original grant of jurisdiction to the Supreme and inferior courts is general, and the clause assigning original jurisdiction to the Supreme Court contains no negative or restrictive words, the power remains to the Legislature to assign original jurisdiction to that Court in other cases than those specified in the article which has been recited, provided those cases belong to the judicial power of the United States.

The most important passages:

"f it had been intended to leave it in the discretion of the Legislature to apportion the judicial power between the Supreme and inferior courts according to the will of that body, it would certainly have been useless to have proceeded further than to have defined the judicial power and the tribunals in which it should be vested. The subsequent part of the section is mere surplusage -- is entirely without meaning -- if such is to be the construction."

"It cannot be presumed that any clause in the Constitution is intended to be without effect, and therefore such construction is inadmissible unless the words require it.

So, Heller and McDonald got it wrong. McDonald doubly so since the historic record shows that the Second Amendment is tied to congress' power under Article I, Section 8, clause 16: to arm the militia. That relates to power granted to the Federal government, not the states.

The bottom line: Marbury v Madison found that no clause in the constitution is without effect. It also found that the courts had the power to review cases.

That poses two dilemmas if the court wishes to ignore this case.  This is especially true if one is an originalist who believes that "the judicial interpretation of the constitution which aims to follow closely the original intentions of those who drafted it." The people who drafted the Constitution were around when this case was decided. the Madison in question was James Madison: the person who drafted the Constitution.

John Marshall, who wrote this decision, was also involved in the creation of the US Constitution.

So, the founders believed that no clause in the constitution was to be without effect. 

To put it plainly: the people who wrote the constitution said that no clause was to be without effect.

That means what Scalia and similar ignorant shits for brains called "preferatory"  is indeed significant. This points to the ablative absolute construction being the more likely explanation.

That means that the "preferatory" clause of a "well-regulated militia being necessary for the Security of the Free State" is indeed the reason "for the right of the people to keep and bear arms not being infringed." That also fits in to the Constitutional frame work mentioned in the preamble: in particular the common defence.

I would also add that neither Heller nor McDonald were cases of first impression. Heller and McDonald are egregious in their failure to properly address the case law prior to their ultra vires act of amending the contsitution. Any proper decision would have to take into account Presser v. Illinois, 116 U.S. 252 (1886) as well as  US v. Miller, 307 U.S. 174 (1939). US v. Cruikshank, 92 U.S. 542 (1876) is short and only points out the connection to Article I, Section 8, clause 16. But all those cases point out that the right is related to the active militia and Article I, Section 8, clause 16.

So, Scalia was right: US v Miller wasn't helpful since it contradicted the result he wanted to achieve.[1] Which is the case for all the case law and the text of the US Constitution. That means the Heller and McDonald decisions are ultra vires in addition to failing to adhere to the rule of law.

I would be highly embarrassed to be associated with these decisions. Justice Roberts should figure out some serious damage control unless he wants his reputation marred by these harmful decisions.

That is because of the harm caused to the public by ripping the Second Amendment from the constitutional framework.

So, yes, I do hold you in contempt for your failure to follow the document you swore to uphold. You should be laughed off the bench for this serious error of judgement.

One that anyone who has seriously studied constitutional law should not make.

see also:
Footnotes:

[1]  US v Miller said:
With obvious purpose to assure the continuation and render possible the effectiveness of such forces, the declaration and guarantee of the Second Amendment were made. It must be interpreted and applied with that end in view.
Justice McReynolds used different terminology than calling it "preferatory" and "operative", but that is EXACTLY what he is talking about.

Bernie and the Demexit

I actively supported Bernie Sanders in 2016 and am passively supporting him in 2020. Passively because I think Bernie's time was 2016 when he had the votes. Bernie was drafted to give people a choice from Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Election. Sanders was popular then, but I think the coalition that would have made him the candidate in 2016 isn't present in this election.

The Demexit was where Sanders supporters left the Democratic Party. I made the Demexit early on: after when AP called the California Primary for Clinton. The 2016 Philadelphia Democratic National Convention firmed up my resolve that my being a Democrat was pointless: even if that meant that was the only way I could vote in a primary.

But the Primaries are acts of attrition to make sure that the candidate with the largest bankroll can make it to the end. Clinton had the big money while Sanders had the popular support in 2016. The fact that the Dems chose the most unpopular candidate was a sickener to me.

But Clinton wouldn't have won the 2016 primary if she had any competition, which is why the DNC rigged the game for her. But Hillary Clinton literally couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery and didn't count on the Electoral College making her plan backfire.

You would think the Democrats would have learned their lesson in 2000, but Russiagate was an example of Democratic ignorance.

Hillary Clinton is a symptom, not the disease. It took Sanders' run to make me see how much the Democratic Party is obsolete.

Anyway, The Green Party was far more appealing to me in how it explicitly addressed election reform and the environment. Hillary Clinton was openly hostile to environmentalists (this too). While some candidates make lip service about the environment, you have establishment democrats doing a Hillary.

So, while the Duopoly Parties like to talk about "Big Tents", you can't have a party with no real agenda. Parties that can include George Wallace and George McGovern aren't going to work. Especially if they are going to run unpopular candidates.

See also:
Democratic Autopsy: the Party in Crisis
The AP's call for Hillary Clinton ruined California's election party--and here’s why that matters
Elizabeth Warren agrees Democratic race 'rigged' for Clinton
Elizabeth Warren and Donna Brazile agree the 2016 primary was Rigged
Inside Hillary Clinton’s Secret Takeover of the DNC
Was the Democratic primary rigged?
Dear Democratic party: it's time to stop rigging the primaries

Saturday, April 6, 2019

Trump Will Be President in 2020

This is like my desire to post that he was going to win in 2016 when I saw early on that the Electoral Votes were being tallied, instead of the popular vote.  That was because I knew the popular vote wouldn't matter.


I am saying this early on because I am hoping maybe a warning might reach the right eyes since I am already seeing the same trends that led Trump win in 2016 happening again.

First off, forgetting Whitewater and its outcomes. Bill Clinton was impeached, but was acquitted which might be the same result if Trump is impeached. Except it will make Trump stronger. Toss in the Democratic Party higher ups don't want it happening.

Of course, this presupposes that Trump will be the 2020 Republican nominee. Which is fairly certain unless someone comes in and does what Bernie Sanders did in 2016. That was to offer a choice to the Republican voters who don't want to run one of the most unpopular candidates ever.

But unpopularity doesn't matter which is something neither party has learned since they don't have to. They are the duopoly and the sheep will keep voting for the lesser evil.

So, as in 2016, the Democrats will end up with a candidate who is unpopular. Sanders will face some of the same shit he had in 2016 less the media blackout. But I am sure that the Democratic Party "members" won't want him running based on his "not being a democrat".[1]  Of course, they will support Liz Warren.

Liz Warren is another story. Her brand was tarnished in 2016 when she went with Clinton instead of Sanders. She was heckled at the 2016 DNC with shouts of "We trusted you." UMass Amherst released a poll of the 2020 Democratic primary in Massachusetts, and Warren garnered just 11 percent of the sample. That is not good in a state where her name recognition is already high and Democrats are as intimately familiar with her record as any 2020 voter is going to get.

The irony here is that Warren was a republican well into the 90s. Possibly into the 2000s! A lot of progressives don't trust her any more.

Liz is one of many Sanders clones running which will give him competition, but there is only one Bernie. Although, I just learned about Sanders signing the Democratic loyalty oath which would mean that he is now a Democratic party member and one of the complaints about him is gone.

But, I don't think some of the party members will forgive Sanders for 2016.

The main things that bother me about the Democratic Party: that they failed to be honest about what happened in 2016 and that they will run another unpopular candidate are the real bottom line here.

I agree with Camille Paglia who said:
If the economy continues strong, Trump will be reelected. The Democrats (my party) have been in chaos since the 2016 election and have no coherent message except Trump hatred. Despite the vast pack of potential candidates, no one yet seems to have the edge.

While I supported Sanders in 2016. I'm not sure I would do it now. I think Bernie's time was in 2016. The Democratic party brand is tarnished beyond repair (and the Republicans are way too far out).

Footnotes:
[1] Sanders signed a loyalty oath to the Democratic Party, but I think some Clinton supporters will still hold a grudge.

See also:

Friday, April 5, 2019

My vote didn't count in the 2016 Presidential Election.

In fair disclosure, I am an independent who voted with the Democrats since I vote in a jurisdiction where there is a closed primary. I supported Bernie Sanders in the primary. Then I voted for Jill Stein.

My vote for Jill Stein in no way influenced the outcome of the election. Clinton still would have lost even if all the people who voted for Jill Stein where I am registered to vote. An aside here: people who voted for Jill Stein weren't very likely to vote for either duopoly candidate.

Still even if my state had voted for Hillary Clinton, that wouldn't have made too much of a difference where the voting really counted: the Electoral College. It might have shifted a few votes, but it wouldn't have given Clinton the 270 votes needed to win.

The popular vote is irrelevant to the outcome of the election as I have pointed out. It has nothing to do with Russia and everything to do with the constitution.

I find it liberating to know that I am able to vote my conscience knowing that the popular vote is meaningless.

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

Russian Interference refuted.

It's really easy.


Hillary Clinton won the popular vote. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote with 65,853,516 (48.5% votes) to Trump's 62,984,825 (46.4% votes) Clinton's margin  of victory in the popular vote was larger than John Kennedy's and Richard Nixon's, I've seen a statistic that her popular vote margin was the third largest in US elections! (It was the third highest for someone who lost an election, it was also fairly significant among the people who won the election)

Multiple candidates in American history have been elected president with far smaller margins than Clinton's in the popular vote. According to figures from the Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections—and as alluded to by one Atlantic reader—they include:

James Garfield in 1880: 0.09 percentage points
John F. Kennedy in 1960: 0.17 percentage points
Grover Cleveland in 1884: 0.57 percentage points
Richard Nixon in 1968: 0.7 percentage points
James Polk in 1844: 1.45 percentage points
Since the final vote count did, indeed, put her well above 2 percentage points ahead of Trump, her margin went beyond those of winning presidential nominees Jimmy Carter in 1976 (2.07 percentage points) and George W. Bush in 2004 (2.47 percentage points). And all this is not to mention the presidents who’ve been elected without winning the popular vote at all. That’s a list that includes Bush in 2000, and Trump.

2,868,686

That is the number of popular votes that Hillary Clinton had over Donald Trump. It was a number that was 2.1% more of the popular vote than Donald Trump won.

That is a number which is larger than the population of 16 States and District of Columbia (Nevada, New Mexico, Nebraska, West Virginia, Idaho, Hawaii, Maine, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Montana Delaware, South Dakota,    Alaska, North Dakota, District of Columbia, Vermont, and Wyoming). It is slightly less than the populations of 4 States: Mississippi, Arkansas, Kansas, and Utah). It is slightly more than the combined populations of Alaska, North Dakota, District of Columbia, Vermont, and Wyoming (2,578,472).

It's also a number which is larger than most of the 100 largest US Cities (Only NYC and LA have a larger population).

Now, given that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by a significant margin: How did Donald Trump become President?

Russian Interference?
The Electoral College?

It was the Electoral College that made Trump President, not any foreign interference.

OK, let's do it right if we want to investigate why Trump is president.

First off, there needs to be an investigation of the US election process altogether from campaign funding to the actual mechanics of running them (e.g., gerrymandering).

Next, there needs to be an investigation of the Democratic Party and how they treated Bernie Sanders, which was the subject core to Russiagate. That was what all those hacked e-mails mentioned.

That leads into how did two of the most unpopular candidates ever get chosen to run for president?


A biggie is that there has to be an examination of the Electoral College, which was the real cause for Trump being President.

Finally, let's look into the misconduct of the press from the media blackout of a popular candidate to the pushing of a nonsensical foreign interference led to a Trump win (and why the fuck can't they shut up about it).

The bottom line is that Russiagate has been a big distraction from much more pressing problems.

See also:

Monday, April 1, 2019

Of Course MSNBC and the US Mass media can't let Russiagate Drop.

It was stories like this that probably helped increase voter apathy.
The thing is that Clinton's winning the popular vote by a large margin, yet losing in the Electoral College totally changes the narrative. How did the Russians cause that outcome?

Russian Interference had nothing to do with Clinton's loss.

Sunday, March 31, 2019

My Response to Congressman Adam Schiff

Who asked:
“My colleagues might think it’s okay that the Russians offered dirt on a Democratic candidate for president as part of what’s been described as an effort to help the Trump campaign. You might think that’s okay,” he starts, establishing a motif. “You might think it’s okay that when that dirt was offered to the president’s son, who played a pivotal role in the campaign, that the president’s son did not call the FBI or adamantly refuse. No, instead he said he would love it.”
Well, you have every reason to be upset, Congressman Schiff, since that dirt was internal Democratic Party communications that left the party not looking very good.

Toss in that the publication of those messages may have come from an internal Democratic Party leak who was upset about the Democratic Party failing to follow its internal rules. But it wasn't a revelation since most of that was being talked about amongst the Sanders Supporters.

Things like the Media blackout of Sanders and that the Democratic party and the media may have been behind what managed to get Trump into office.

Toss in the Clinton supporters said that these e-mails weren't going to be an issue. Remember that one? I sure do. But, it's really funny how this fuck up has to be atoned for. so find a convenient scapegoat by blaming the Russians.

Toss in the class action suit alleging that the DNC had committed fraud by taking donations in a “rigged” primary battle. Part of the lawsuit claimed that the DNC favoured Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton over Sanders which was in violation of the DNC charter.

Who was behind AP declaring Hillary Clinton the winner of the California and Several other primaries on the 6th of June, the day BEFORE the primaries?  Was that the Russians? Are you OK with that?

How about these allegations of Democratic misconduct? Are you OK with that? (I've tried to find compilations that show the actions of the DNC in 2016 in regard to suppressing dissent and Bernie Sanders campaign)


The following clip addresses the lack of democracy in the US: Internal forces are doing far more than "Russian Intervention."


Why the fuck didn't the Democrats do something about the Electoral College after the 2000 election? Why the fuck are you trying to get people to ignore that the Electoral College was behind Trump's victory in 2016? Are you OK with that?

Yeah, dude, you've got every reason on the planet to get all upset about the "Russian Collusion" thing because at the core of it all is Democratic Party bungling which you, your party, and the media don't want to take responsibility for. Are you OK with that?

Especially since it meant that your party preferred to lose with Hillary Clinton to an opponent who wasn't supposed to win instead of running with a popular candidate. Are you OK with that?

Yeah, it's a fuck of a lot easier to claim "foreign interference" instead of admitting your side fucked up and we ended up with Trump.

But you might be OK with the fact that YOUR PARTY FUCKED IT, which is why you want to keep the "Russian Interference" charade going on after the Mueller Investigation confirmed what I have been saying all along: That the real misconduct is internal to the US, in particular the DEMOCRATIC PARTY. And that the body that made Trump president was the Electoral College.

So, the congressman doth protest too much, methinks.

Because his party fucked it and he doesn't want that made public.

See also:

Saturday, March 30, 2019

The Problem of Analysing the US 2016 Presidential Election

There's a big problem with trying to analyse the US 2016 Presidential Election.

TRUMP WASN'T POPULARLY ELECTED

He was elected by the Electoral College, which isn't tied to the popular vote.

As I like to point out, that Hillary Clinton had a significant amount of the popular vote kind of trashes most of the "she was unpopular" analysis. Since she WAS popular: just not where and how it counted.

So, talking about what the Clinton campaign and the Democrats did to lose the election seems wrong. Unless you are doing it in a strategic manner.

The Clinton campaign thought that no one would vote for trump. That led to the assumption that most of the brown states in this map would vote for Clinton. That's why there were all the predictions of a "landslide" for Clinton.

She could have pulled off a win if she had taken Florida and any one of AZ, MI, NC, PA, or WI, but she didn't. But that isn't really about the popular vote as much as it is about the workings of the Electoral College and failing to realise that a "safe" state may not be that safe (e.g., MI, PA, and WI).

I'm going to add that I learned that Andrew Therriault, the former DNC director of data science, reacted, “Irony of her bashing DNC data: our models never had MI/WI/PA looking even close to safe. Her team thought they knew better.””

The real upshot of all this is that what counted were the Electoral College votes and getting enough to get all a states votes: since Clinton probably would have won if the Electoral College votes somehow reflected the popular vote.

But the real bottom line assumption was that there was no way she would lose to Donald Trump.

Boy, we're they WRONG.

See also:

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Remember Whitewater?

I was at some American Bar Association thing during the early Clinton Years where Webb Hubbell attracted a lot of attention since President Clinton had made him an Associate Attorney General. He was one of the many to fall from the investigations into President Clinton.

But one thing that came out of the Whitewater investigation was Hillary Clinton's Cattle Futures Trading:
Guided by her friend Jim Blair, an experienced commodities trader, Hillary began investing in cattle futures, and saw her initial $1,000 investment grow to nearly $100,000 in less than a year. That gain came in for considerable scrutiny during Bill's presidency; one analysis estimated that even under the most generous of assumptions, the odds of a return that large during the period in question are about one in 31 trillion. Hillary was also allowed to buy 10 cattle contracts (normally worth $12,000) with only $1,000 in her trading account, increasing suspicions that she had received favorable treatment because Bill held political office. A later White House investigation into the trades found no evidence Hillary committed any trading violations.
OK, that last part about "no evidence Hillary committed any trading violations" is a fudge: the statute of limitations had tolled. That meant that there is no way that Hillary Clinton could be investigated for insider trading: no matter how slimy this affair appears. So, it's been something of a footnote in Hillary Clinton's career.

Here's 60 Minutes' coverage on this:

On the other hand, REFCO, the financial services company that handled these trades is another thing. Looking into that company's history one finds that it had a long history of shady deals finally collapsing in $430 Million in bad debts.

Anyway, for the people who want to point out all the non-Russian collusion prosecutions that came from the Mueller report: I really wouldn't chortle since Hillary Clinton came out of Whitewater smelling like shit.

Enough that it was one of the many reasons I couldn't vote for her.

Although, the Russiagate thing seems really similar to this in that the Trump supporters see it as a vindication of Trump. The Russiagaters have lost perspective and see the result as something successful even if the prosecutions are in no way related to the issue of Russian influence.

And some of them may never result in charges actually being brought against foreign nationals.

On the other hand, Hillary Clinton's supporters have a lot of nerve talking about allegations which will never result in charges when you consider the Cattle Futures trading thing.

See also:

Monday, March 25, 2019

Any serious investigation of "Russian Influence" needed to look at both parties.

I don't think either of the two parties has clean hands in the "foreign influence" and election rigging thing. The Dems were basically caught screwing Bernie and pushing Trump in the e-mails the Russians were alleged to have given to Wikileaks.

There have been non-MSM media coverage which questioned the Russiagate thing.


Consortium News has republished articles originally appearing when they called the entire fiasco into question now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s final report resulted in no one being accused of “colluding” with Russia to steal the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Consortium’s Bob Parry was in the forefront of Russia-gate scepticism, recognizing its domestic and geopolitical dangers.
An irony of the escalating hysteria about the Trump camp’s contacts with Russians is that one presidential campaign in 2016 did exploit political dirt that supposedly came from the Kremlin and other Russian sources. Friends of that political campaign paid for this anonymous hearsay material, shared it with American journalists and urged them to publish it to gain an electoral advantage. But this campaign was not Donald Trump’s; it was Hillary Clinton’s.
Personally,I think that any investigation of election misconduct in 2016 needs to look at both parties and not focus on one or the other. On the other hand, you have to question whether a candidate who acted as if he wanted to lose the Election, Trump, was in anyway really doing anything wrong.

Anyway, there is a lot wrong, but I don't think Russiagate is the real problem here.

See also:

HILLARY CLINTON WON THE POPULAR VOTE!!!

I feel like a broken record, but the Mueller Report thing vindicated people who were Russiagate Sceptics.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote with 65,853,516 (48.5% votes) to Trump's 62,984,825 (46.4% votes), but lost in the electoral college by receiving 232 (43.1%) of the electoral votes to Trump's 306 (56.8%) vote
That fact pretty much refutes the "Russian Influence" bullshit.

While the Electoral College may suck, it does make it hard for external forces to screw up an election. Assuming each state (+ DC) gives all its votes to the Republican or Democrat using the "winner take all system", there There are 2 to the 51st power or 2.25 quadrillion (2,250,000,000,000,000) possible outcomes! Since there are no states with one or two electoral votes, a final total of 1, 2, 536 or 537 is not possible, assuming each state gives all its votes to the popular vote winner of that state.

That is because there are two possible outcomes (blue or red) for each state and DC, this is the same as flipping a coin 51 times and recording, in order, the outcome of each.

Anyway, there are a lot of ways that Clinton could have won the Electoral vote, but she didn't for whatever reason. But I am pretty sure that those reasons were domestic, and came from the Democratic Party: NOT FOREIGN.

So, the fact that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote should have been the end of the Russian Influence shit.

But that would mean that people would have to look at what is wrong with US Elections.

Sunday, March 24, 2019

Imagine this actually happening at the US Constitutional Convention.

The Good News: Catherine the Great has promised to give us a Donkey Show if we create an Electoral College.
The Bad News: It won't be for another 230 years or so.

Next, Let's ensure that we will have gun mayhem and mass shootings in the future.
Oh, cake!

Saturday, March 23, 2019

Are you reallly sure you want a gun in the house?

Gun deaths rising among white kids as more families own handguns

Hey, they aren't my kids.

But if you really care about your kids are you sure you want to risk it? Remember that dead is hard to cure if you are willing to chance it.

Still, feel free to collect your Darwin Awards! No, I can't be sympathetic since your kind has shown you don't care about other people's children.

Why should we give a fuck about yours?


Talk about counterproductive though.

Friday, March 22, 2019

Judith Collins tells US lobby group NRA to 'bugger off' over New Zealand gun reform

OK, the correct Originalist intepretation of the Second Amendment should make it clear that it relates to the Common Defence.

Also, the Second Amendment means fuck all outside the US. Only a few other countries in the world recognise gun rights: mostly third world. A country that wants to somehow see itself as "Great" shouldn't go for a misinterpretation of its founding document.

That said, National Party MP and former police minister Judith Collins has told the National Rifle Association to "bugger off" out of New Zealand's affairs as it prepares to introduce sweeping gun law reforms following the deaths of 50 people in an attack on two Christchurch mosques.
"They talked about how we were trying to take away their Second Amendment rights to own guns. We don't have a right to bear arms. To own a gun in New Zealand is absolutely a privilege and not a right," she said.
Likewise, if owning a gun doesn't contribute to the common defence, then it is a privilege not a right according to a proper originalist interpretation of the Second Amendment.

If the founders had intended on people using guns for self-defence, killing their kids, or mass murder they would have said it clearly in the text.

It's not in the Second Amendment, only words that connote the common defence, a goal mentioned in the preamble, exist in the text.

Now, bugger off because the revisionist interpretation of the Second Amendment is contrary to what the founders intended in so many ways.

Thursday, March 21, 2019

Grasping at Straws (or the Pro-gun side really has a problem)

I was trying to find the study that demonstrated using a gun for self-defence is usually counterproductive. Instead of finding that data, I was bombarded with this "Secret CDC Study" that "confirms" The 2-3 Million annual DGU number. It doesn't which is why I am publishing it in full.
Defensive Use of Guns

Defensive use of guns by crime victims is a common occurrence, although the exact number remains disputed (Cook and Ludwig, 1996; Kleck, 2001a). Almost all national survey estimates indicate that defensive gun uses by victims are at least as common as offensive uses by criminals, with estimates of annual uses ranging from about 500,000 to more than 3 million (Kleck, 2001a), in the context of about 300,000 violent crimes involving firearms in 2008 (BJS, 2010). On the other hand, some scholars point to a radically lower estimate of only 108,000 annual defensive uses based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (Cook et al., 1997). The variation in these numbers remains a controversy in the field. The estimate of 3 million defensive uses per year is based on an extrapolation from a small number of responses taken from more than 19 national surveys. The former estimate of 108,000 is difficult to interpret because respondents were not asked specifically about defensive gun use.

A different issue is whether defensive uses of guns, however numerous or rare they may be, are effective in preventing injury to the gun-wielding crime victim. Studies that directly assessed the effect of actual defensive uses of guns (i.e., incidents in which a gun was “used” by the crime victim in the sense of attacking or threatening an offender) have found consistently lower injury rates among gun-using crime victims compared with victims who used other self-protective strategies (Kleck, 1988; Kleck and DeLone, 1993; Southwick, 2000; Tark and Kleck, 2004). Effectiveness of defensive tactics, however, is likely to vary across types of victims, types of offenders, and circumstances of the crime, so further research is needed both to explore these contingencies and to confirm or discount earlier findings.

Even when defensive use of guns is effective in averting death or injury for the gun user in cases of crime, it is still possible that keeping a gun in the home or carrying a gun in public—concealed or open carry—may have a different net effect on the rate of injury. For example, if gun ownership raises the risk of suicide, homicide, or the use of weapons by those who invade the homes of gun owners, this could cancel or outweigh the beneficial effects of defensive gun use (Kellermann et al., 1992, 1993, 1995). Although some early studies were published that relate to this issue, they were not conclusive, and this is a sufficiently important question that it merits additional, careful exploration.
Odd that most of the people who want to use this fail to quote the title: Priorities for Research to Reduce the Threat of Firearm-Related Violence

The reason I call this post what I do is that any person who says this somehow "confirms" the 2-3 million annual DGUs is either dishonest as fuck or illiterate.

This doesn't confirm anything other than gun violence research is not being properly carried out. The fact that the progun side is using this to back up their claims shows that they are really desperate to prove their claim.

Which this doesn't do.

Sorry, but the reason for the research ban was that the facts were against the "pro-gun" side. And it doesn't seem that is going to change looking at how they are using something like this to back up their claims.

The progunners would be better off letting the research happen and let if fall where it may

See also:

Friday, March 15, 2019

The Third Party Mindset.

OK, this blog post is from a Libertarian site. It's not Green, but it shows the mindset of people who voted for the third parties. Switch "Jill Stein" for \"gary Johnson" and this could be taken from a Green Party site:

I’m so tired of hearing this nonsense from both sides: "A vote for Gary Johnson is a vote for Hillary.  A vote for Gary Johnson is a vote for Trump."

For Heaven’s sake, ENOUGH of that broken record!  Remember the Electoral College?  That institution that guarantees one party will take all the state’s electoral votes in the presidential election?  Unless you live in 1 of 9 or 10 battleground states, the Electoral College guarantees your vote doesn’t matter.
Yep. There was a lot of talk about whether one was in a safe state or not. But the real bottom line was this:
5% in the general election will get us federal funds, automatic ballot access in all states, and inclusion in the national polls and the debates.  Gary Johnson has polled in the 20-30% range between last week and today.
The real issue for a lot of third party voters was to get the 5% ballot access since we knew winning was impossible. On the other hand, the 5% share of the vote for a third party seemed possible.

Maybe we could have done something to change the way elections are run in the US.

Source:

Tuesday, March 12, 2019

More proof that the Election Rigging is Internal, not External.

Exhibit No 1: The US Presidential Debates.

Here is a quote from one of the many articles I found when I went looking for the statement from the League of Women Voters about why they stopped hosting the Presidential debates (do a search on "League of Women Voters Presidential debates" for some interesting reading).
The Commission on Presidential Debates, a non-profit institution, is organizing the debates this year, as it has since its founding in 1987. Led by a board of high ranking members of the two major parties, the Commission largely operates behind closed doors, where it pre-screens questions and vets moderators. Though opaque, this week audiences caught a glimpse into how the body makes decisions. Its chief, Janet Brown, said it was the duty of the candidates, not of the moderator, to fact check each other.
Here is the video I was looking for:


The takeaway line from the speech is:
The League of Women Voters is withdrawing sponsorship of the presidential debates … because the demands of the two campaign organizations would perpetrate a fraud on the American voter. It has become clear to us that the candidates’ organizations aim to add debates to their list of campaign-trail charades devoid of substance, spontaneity and answers to tough questions. The League has no intention of becoming an accessory to the hoodwinking of the American public.
The League made sure that the debates were run in a truly impartial manner before the two parties created The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), which is a non-profit corporation established in 1987 under the joint sponsorship of the Democratic and Republican political parties in the United States.

If that doesn't stink to you, then you probably should go back to believing the Russians rigged the election. This commenter pretty much sums up what the debates have become:
Instead of any substantive exploration of the candidates' proposals, we will be treated to a mélange of showmanship and complaining, obstinacy and irrelevance, petty quibbles, grandstanding, pandering, half-truths, and punchlines. The candidates will be rehearsed, the moderators timid, the questions calculated, and the answers at once too short and too long. We will learn little to nothing that could not be discovered at this very moment by any Google user of modest skill. And inevitably, we will drink — a shot for every boast, a chug for every lie — because drinking games have become as guaranteed a fixture of our presidential debates as the candidates themselves. Is it any wonder debate viewership has been on a steady decline for decades?

The bottom line is that the CPD has made it hard for third parties to get involved in the debates. Toss in that the debates have no real substance. That's because they are a pointless exercise in duopoly PR.

There is a reason that Climate Change got short shrift  no attention whatsoever in the 2016 debates. It is impossible for third parties to get the 15% share of the voting public without any publicity.

The CPD is one of many examples of how the US elections are not "free and fair".

On the other hand, isn't having a president who wasn't popularly elected enough to persuade you of that?

See Also:



Sunday, March 10, 2019

I don't get why Russiagate is a thing.

OK, the Mueller report is out: where are the indictments? For that matter why isn't everybody talking about it?

crickets chirp.

Let's toss in that James Clapper is alleged to be a perjurer. But like Hillary Clinton and the insider trading thing we can't talk about it since the statute of limitations has tolled. No matter how much both of those things stink.

Anyway, lots of talk about nothing which resulted in all the same issues still being around to cause trouble.

I am betting that Trump gets a second term because of the failure to address the problems that plagued the 2016 election.  His victory will be from a failure to learn from those mistakes.

See also:

Friday, February 22, 2019

Reasonable Doubt

Ok, the presupposition is that Russians somehow interfered in the US election. Question would be how?
Were they responsible for Hillary Clinton being the Democratic Party Nominee?
Were they responsible for Trump being the Republican one?
Were they responsible for Bernie Sanders?
Given the Democrats made it clear that the e-mails weren't an issue during the election: why would their revealing them have rigged the election?
Since I mentioned "attempt", there is another legal issue here called "reasonable doubt", which is the standard in a criminal prosecution. The evidence must be so convincing that no reasonable person would ever question the defendant’s guilt. The standard requires that the evidence offer no logical explanation or conclusion other than that the defendant committed the crime. The doubt doesn't need to be absolute, only reasonable.
“Beyond a reasonable doubt” doesn’t mean, however, that the prosecution must eliminate all unreasonable doubts a jury could possibly have. Nor must the prosecution prove the case beyond a shadow of a doubt or to an absolute certainty. These would be impossible burdens because only witnesses to an alleged crime can be certain—and even then, not all witnesses can be certain. Rather, this highest of standards requires—after consideration of all facts—only one logical conclusion: that the defendant is indeed guilty.
So, if there is another explanation, which is far more plausible, then we have reasonable doubt. Anyone pushing Russiagate has to address the fact that Hillary Clinton was an unpopular candidate who ran a poor campaign that lost in the electoral college.

That means we can have something which is a far more obvious and better explanation, then we have reasonable doubt. Anything that makes the allegations questionable is reasonable doubt.

In my case, I have yet to see how the Russians did anything beyond point out the flaws in the system. What happened was more like someone witnessing a crime and then reporting it.

See also:

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Heckler & Koch ceases US sales

Heckler & Koch announced today that it has adopted a more ethical export control policy than the German government's. H&K announced that will no longer to sell arms into warzones or to countries that violate corruption and democracy standards.
Heckler & Koch – sometimes called Germany’s deadliest company by activists – said it would now sell only to “green countries,” which it defined according to three criteria: membership of Nato or “Nato-equivalent” (Japan, Switzerland, Australia and New Zealand); Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index; and the Economist Intelligence Unit’s democracy index.
 The US fails in two categories and Trump is talking about removing the US from NATO.

I applaud Heckler & Koch for being a corporate good citizen and realising that the US is one place where arms do not belong.

If the US isn't a "crisis region", I don't know what is!

See also:

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

Why isn't stuff like this being discussed in USMSM when they mention Russiagate?

More evidence that any rigging or corruption in the 2016 Presidential Election was home grown.

I'm sorry, but you have a fuck of a lot of explaining about the suppression of Bernie Sanders and his supporters during the primary to address before anyone even thinks of mentioning Russians.

Let's toss this in for good measure.

Monday, February 18, 2019

Attempt in law.

Now people are telling me that the Russians attempted to rig the US election.

OK, Black letter: Attempt is comprised of three elements: (1) intent to commit a crime; (2) conduct that constitutes a substantial step toward completing the crime and (3) a failure to complete the crime.

The question is were elements (1) and (2) present?

Now, maybe the Russians DID intend to rig the election, did they do anything substantial to complete that crime?

On the other hand, we have internal DNC memos where they talk about having Trump be the "Pied Piper Candidate"?

Now, it's a totally different kettle of fish if the people who actually DID the crime were US citizens and the Russians were the ones who reported it.

There is a difference between and attempt and reporting a crime. I think the Russians reported what was going on.

The Russians didn't instigate it. The DNC did.

See also:

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

The proper Originalist interpretation of the Second Amendment

I can go into a long analysis of why the Heller and McDonald decisions are bullshit, but here is the simple take down using the Originalists' own description of their school of interpretation. That is:
"Constitutional interpretation should remain anchored in the original meaning of the Constitution’s text, which is the source of the Court’s authority and legitimacy."
 OK, it's not popular to use the preamble. Most people miss that it says more than just "We the people". Instead it says:
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
Let's take these words as the original intent of the founders for what the Constitution is supposed to be about. How do the Heller and McDonald decisions address these issues? They don't: they expand the Constitution to include matters of self-defence.

On the other hand, the Constitution makes it clear that it addresses matters of the common defence. One can look at the transcripts of the debates relating to the adoption of the Constitution to see that the intent of the founders was to address the common defence. While the people who try to promote a concept of gun rights use the Patrick Henry's "The great object is, that every man be armed" to support that, the actual quotation was made in relationship to Article I, Section 8, Clause 16.

Henry makes that clear in the paragraph before the above misquotation comes from. In fact the complete paragraph takes a different meaning when it is read in its complete form:
May we not discipline and arm them, as well as Congress, if the power be concurrent? so that our militia shall have two sets of arms, double sets of regimentals, &c.; and thus, at a very great cost, we shall be doubly armed. The great object is, that every man be armed. But can the people afford to pay for double sets of arms, &c.? Every one who is able may have a gun. But we have learned, by experience, that, necessary as it is to have arms, and though our Assembly has, by a succession of laws for many years, endeavored to have the militia completely armed, it is still far from being the case. When this power is given up to Congress without limitation or bounds, how will your militia be armed? You trust to chance; for sure I am that that nation which shall trust its liberties in other hands cannot long exist. If gentlemen are serious when they suppose a concurrent power, where can be the impolicy to amend it? Or, in other words, to say that Congress shall not arm or discipline them, till the states shall have refused or neglected to do it? This is my object. I only wish to bring it to what they themselves say is implied. Implication is to be the foundation of our civil liberties; and when you speak of arming the militia by a concurrence of power, you use implication. But implication will not save you, when a strong army of veterans comes upon you. You would be laughed at by the whole world, for trusting your safety implicitly to implication.
That takes us to the real concern of the founders, which wasn't private guns. The concern was the militia. It was that Congress would indeed arm the militia as required by Article I, Section 8, Clause 16.

Had the authors of Heller and McDonald done some source checking, they would have seen the quotations used were taken out of context. Toss in that their cases were not cases of first impression: although US v Miller, is indeed not helpful since it contradicts the assertions made in the later cases.

This is a topic I've gone over before, but one doesn't need to go beyond the four corners of the US Constitution to see that Heller and McDonald are bullshit.

The authors were bound by precedent: even if they disagreed with that precedent.

Likewise, they were bound by their own claimed theory of interpretation to stick to the text and not engage in mental masturbation. And here is the text of the Second Amendment:
A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.
The text explicitly says militia. It also says "provide for the common defence."

There is no mention of self-defence in the US Constitution. Even more importantly: there is no mention of keeping handguns in the home for defence.

If one wants to go to basic statutory interpretation as used by the founders: "expressio unius est exclusio alterius."  That is when one or more things of a class are expressly mentioned others of the same class are excluded. In other words, you can't read shit into the text which isn't there.

That is called legislation, which is a no no for judges.

Judges interpret the law as written, they don't make it. And they sure as fuck don't amend the constitution if they believe that is the source of their authority.

It says fuck all about self-defence. As Presser v. Illinois said:
The Constitution and laws of the United States will be searched in vain for any support to the view that these rights are privileges and immunities of citizens of the United States independent of some specific legislation on the subject.
And while Presser was more along the lines of the "unorganised militia" argument. I would say that its holding would be even stronger had the issue been solely the possession of arms by civilians. That's because promoting the general welfare makes regulation of firearms a no brainer.

And the Second Amendment only relates to Congress' power under Article I, Section 8, Clause 16 to arm the militia.

So, let's cut the silly buggers. US v Miller said:
In the absence of any evidence tending to show that possession or use of a "shotgun having a barrel of less than eighteen inches in length" at this time has some reasonable relationship to the preservation or efficiency of a well regulated militia, we cannot say that the Second Amendment guarantees the right to keep and bear such an instrument. Certainly it is not within judicial notice that this weapon is any part of the ordinary military equipment, or that its use could contribute to the common defense. Aymette v. State, 2 Humphreys (Tenn.) 154, 158.
And Aymette said:
Suppose it were to suit the whim of a set of ruffians to enter the theatre in the midst of the performance, with drawn swords, guns and fixed bayonets, or to enter the church in the same manner, during service, to the terror of the audience; and this were to become habitual; can it be, that it would be beyond the power of the legislature to pass laws to remedy such an evil? Surely not. If the use of arms in this way cannot be prohibited, it is in the power of fifty armed ruffians to break up the churches, and all other public assemblages, where they might lawfully come, and there would be no remedy. But we are perfectly satisfied that a remedy might be applied.
And
To make this view of the case still more clear, we may remark, that the phrase, "bear arms," is used in the Kentucky constitution as well as in our own, and implies, as has already been suggested, their military use. The 28th section of our bill of rights provides, "that no citizen of this State shall be compelled to bear arms, provided he will pay in equivalent, to be ascertained by law." Here we know that the phrase has a military sense, and no other; and we must infer that it is used in the same sense in the 26th section, which secures to the citizen the right to bear arms. A man in the pursuit of deer, elk and buffaloes, might carry his rifle every day, for forty years, and, yet, it would never be said of him, that he had borne arms, much less could it be said, that a private citizen bears arms, because he has a dirk or pistol concealed under his clothes, or a spear in a cane. So that, with deference, we think the argument of the court in the case referred to, even upon the question it has debated, is defective and inconclusive.
Sorry, but the Second Amendment relates to the military, not private arms.


Bottom line: the US Constitution addresses matters of the common defence, not self-defence. A judge cannot change that by fiat.

Especially if they believe in the Constitution as written.

Monday, February 11, 2019

Voting for something, rather than against something

OK, one of the Main Stream Media narratives is that people who voted for third parties were doing it as a protest vote. But that couldn't be more inaccurate.

I was voting for things I believed in when I voted Green. Toss in a vote for Clinton would have been truly a waste of a vote since she won the popular vote, yet still lost the election. My one vote wouldn't have changed that, and I doubt the votes of others who also voted for third parties would have changed the election either. But I've gone on about how the Electoral College distorts the vote ad nauseum.

There were two issues which were conspicuously absent for me in the 2016 presidential election: the environment and the political process. The Green Party addressed both of those issues. Toss in that the Green Party was pretty much where my politics lay.

Number on in the Green Party's Ten key Values are "Grassroots Democracy", which is something that starts with political reform. The points listed there are pretty much something which needs to be brought into the public forum. Yet they are neglected in the media discussion of how the 2016 election went wrong.

The bottom line in the "Russian interference" narrative is that the Russians used the US political system against itself.  Election security depends on ridding the system of the flaws that enabled an election like that in 2016.

The reality is that I was disillusioned with the two party system and wanted an alternative. I was voting for that alternative in the hope that it would gain enough support to be noticed by the media and the political parties.

I wasn't voting for an evil. I was voting for a better future.

Thursday, February 7, 2019

Who needs Russians when you have Hillary?

Take a candidate with a reputation for saying anything and doing nothing. Toss in her credibility problem. Then let her go out without handlers and unscripted...



As I have said, the standard for a criminal conviction is beyond a reasonable doubt. You can provide reasonable doubt by providing evidence that there might be another, more plausible, reason for something.

Toss in that the only thing the Russians are supposed to have done was use internal Democratic National Committee documents to throw the election.

Maybe the Russians are responsible for Hillary Clinton being the candidate as well.

See also:

Close election, or bad campaign?

OK, I strongly believe that Sanders would have won the 2016 Election had he been allowed to run. He was the people's candidate in that he ran on small donations. He also got people energised.

Whatever the case, that is moot since the Democrats made it clear they preferred to lose with Clinton than Win with Sanders.

I don't need anyone to tell me what I saw was due to Russian Influence: there is more than enough documentation of how the Democrats tried to silence dissent throughout the election.

Anyway, I make it obvious I like to play with the interactive maps at 270towin because one of the underlying assumptions of the "Russian Influence" argument is that the popular vote mattered (it didn't).

Take the actual results of the Electoral votes:


Now superimpose this map of where the results were considered close:


it puts paid to the argument that Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were the three states that somehow "mattered" in the election. It also shows why the pundits were saying that Clinton would win in a landslide in the electoral college (remember, most states are winner take all no matter what the actual result would be).

On the other hand, it show how silly the "Russian Influence" and "Third Party voter" arguments are to the actual results in the Electoral College. Clinton could have won with a couple of the close states.

Yet she didn't.

Also, this shows that the Electoral College leads to a national race and protects smaller states arguments are wrong.

Fair Vote pointed out that two-thirds (273 of 399) of the general-election
campaign events in the 2016 presidential race were in just 6 states (Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Michigan).


94% of the 2016 events (375 of the 399) were in 12 states (the 11 states identified in early 2016 as "battleground" states by Politico and The Hill plus Arizona). This fact validates the statement by former presidential candidate and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin on September 2, 2015, that “The nation as a whole is not going to elect the next president.

BTW, Clinton could have won the election if she had Electoral College wins in North Carolina and Florida, the two states with the most campaign events.

Any attempts at influencing the elections by a foreign power would be difficult given the distortions of popular vote by the Electoral College.

Anyway, the bottom line is that Clinton was a poor candidate who ran a bad campaign.

You can't blame the Russians for that. Unless you want to tell me that the DNC is somehow part of the Russian Plot.

See also:
Two-thirds of Presidential Campaign Is in Just 6 States
FairVote: The Electoral College
Electoral College Distortions: "Winner" could lose popular vote by a landslide

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

What do I say to liberals to get them to understand we did not vote for Trump, we voted against Hillary and everything she represents?

Wow! what a loaded question from Quora. I would love to answer it there, but it seems a bit pointless for a few reasons.

The first is that the first answer is pretty good for someone unfamiliar with the US political process. The second is that any answer would be buried in the abusive answers he received.

Anyway, I'm guessing this person has voter's remorse, which happens in a system where someone has to pick a "lesser evil" (or a Scylla and Charybdis election).

First off, I would point out that Hillary Clinton won the popular vote with one of the largest margins ever. Or conversely that Trump lost it with one of the largest margins ever. The US is unique in having something called the Electoral College, which means the popular vote is pretty much meaningless. Clinton would have had to win the popular vote in at least Florida and one of the following states: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin (i.e., win the popular vote in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) to have won in the Electoral College.

The Electoral College is something that truly needs to be abolished.

But you can feel easy that your one vote isn't what cost Clinton the election. That's because unless your vote wouldn't have changed too much unless you  happened to live in Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. Even then, one vote seriously wouldn't have changed the outcome of the election. But that is an oversimplification based on possibilities of Clinton winning any of those States.

Also, how did the election turn out in your state in regard to the Electoral College votes? You are in the clear if you lived in one of the States where Clinton won the Electoral College votes ("Blue State") since your vote didn't count: Clinton won those anyway.

Likewise, your vote didn't really mean much if you were in a "Red State". It wouldn't matter who you voted for in that case: Clinton lost.


Still, your problem is an example of why it is wrong to vote against a candidate instead of for someone you believe in. But basing an election on lesser evils means you have to vote for evil.

Sure, you could do what I did and vote for a third party because that party held values you share (or was most representative of your beliefs). The Greens were pretty much what Bernie was promoting: and I had no idea what Clinton was actually for (other than herself).

Did you consider voting for Gary Johnson if you believe in libertarian values?

One nice thing about voting for third parties is that can automatically get on the ballot and in the debates if they get enough percentage of the vote.

Anyway, you should make it clear that the popular vote is meaningless for President in the United States. Also, you should point out that you voted for the candidate you considered the lesser evil. That means an evil candidate still wins.

I voted Green because I don't vote for evil: lesser or otherwise. I also voted for a candidate and party which represents the values I believe in.

So, maybe you might want to look into a third party candidate next time.

Tuesday, February 5, 2019

Sunday, February 3, 2019

Netherlandish Proverbs

I love Bernie Sanders: don't get me wrong.

I was one of his early supporters in 2016 since I couldn't see Hillary Clinton run unopposed for President.

I am firmly of the belief he would have won and been a much better president than anyone else if he had a chance to win.

Unfortunately, the "Democratic Party" has been biased against truly progressive candidates: as Henry Wallace and Bernie Sanders have shown. Those are the most obvious examples of the "Democratic Party" not being truly democratic.

Sanders was the people's candidate in that he ran his campaign on small donations. He was like "the people's millionaire" who had one million people send him a dollar each. Yet the "Democratic Party" chose to run Hillary Clinton with the obvious result that she lost.

And she lost in such a way that she should never think of running for office. Also that her supporters should accept that they are pretty much responsible for the Trump presidency. I say this because Clinton could not understand that the electoral college was where the election would really be won.

And while Clinton had one of the largest popular victories ever, that means fuck all.

The system is corrupt in that it is rigged against the popular candidate, whether in the primary process or the actual election being thwarted by the Electoral College.

There is an irony that someone who "won" the nomination (Clinton) did do in a way that a popular candidate (Sanders) would lose. But the system is rigged so that the popular vote is meaningless and her victory is without significance. Even more importantly her campaign was clueless to that aspect of the election.

Where do Netherlandish Proverbs come into all of this? At the bottom of the painting is a man filling in a hole where the calf has drowned ("Als het kalf verdronken is, dempt men de put").  This is the Dutch equivalent of "shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted". This saying is quite widespread in the Dutch language. It is used in many occasions where something should have been done before, but nothing has been done.

The "Democratic Party" has already demonstrated that it isn't democratic in any way. Likewise, it will look for every excuse and issue except for what has actually led to this mess. That requires too much self-examination for the establishment parties.

So, while I was hopeful that a Sanders candidacy could have been meaningful in 2016: that election demonstrated that the popular vote is meaningless.  I have happily left the two party system to once again be an independent.

Friday, February 1, 2019

Oh, Dear! Puhhlleeezzee drop the Russian Troll Thing.

OK, the first question you need to get around is why did Hillary Clinton lose the election? She won the popular vote by one of the largest margins EVER in an election. That is nearly 3 million votes.

Where she lost the election was in the electoral college, which is an institution found in the US Constitution. You can find it in USC Article II, Section 1, Clauses 2-4 along with the 12th Amendment. The fact that this institution was changed early on in the republic (1803-1804) demonstrates its problematic nature.

Any Russian influence in creating the electoral college would have to date back to the founding of the US given that Electoral College was the body that actually made Trump President. You can read about how the electoral college works here.

I should add that the Electoral College's main purpose is to thwart the popular vote, which it actually has done in 5 elections. The elections of 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016 produced an Electoral College winner who did not receive at least a plurality of the nationwide popular vote. In 1824, there were six states in which electors were legislatively appointed, rather than popularly elected, so it is uncertain what the national popular vote would have been if all presidential electors had been popularly elected. There have been five United States presidential elections in which the winner lost the popular vote including the 1824 election, which was the first U.S. presidential election where the popular vote was recorded.

Toss in that Clinton could have gotten enough votes in the electoral college by:

1) Winning the popular vote in all three states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
2) Winning the popular vote in Florida and at least one of the following states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The 2000 Election focused on Florida, but a popular vote win for Gore in Ohio could have also led to his victory (see https://www.270towin.com/2000_Election/interactive_map). The 2016 narrative focuses on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, but is flawed since none of those states were solidly for Clinton. Michigan and Wisconsin went for Sanders in the primaries. I would toss in the result of the 2008 Michigan primary where:
"In Michigan, where Obama and other candidates removed their name from the ballot, Clinton won against "Uncommitted" (i.e., a vote for nobody) 55-40%. Exit poll respondents said that if all candidates had been on the ballot, they would have voted 46% Clinton, 35% Obama, 12% Edwards, 3% other."
I definitely would not call Michigan solid for Clinton in 2008 and 2016. But the Dems made it clear they preferred to lose with Clinton than possibly win with Sanders. But that's another post.

The bottom line here is that no one state's popular vote would have gotten Clinton the presidency. Additionally, it was a chance to expect Michigan and Wisconsin to vote for Clinton.

Next we get to the Clinton supporters who made it clear that Donald trump would not be President:

I would also add the Clinton Supporters who said things like:


Next we have allegations that the Democratic National Committee rigged the Election against Sanders. And from what I get, the e-mails which have been alleged to have been provided by Russia were internal Democratic Party messages. These messages were not new revelations, but pretty much a confirmation of what was being said about the DNC being biased for Clinton.


If anything, the "Russian Bots", or whatever the fuck you want to call them, were basically using the failings of the US system of elections against itself.

So, maybe there were Russian bots, but nothing a foreign power could do would have screwed up the 2016 elections worse than what internal US forces did. And the really sad thing is that a lot of these things could have been avoided have the election been run with fairness principles which have disappeared over the last 40 years.

So, the real joke is on the comedians who gave Trump far more publicity than he deserved because of ratings.  Are those people Russian bots?

Anyway, you have to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Russians did indeed cause a Trump win.  Using that standard, you've lost the game before you've even started.

See also: